Marquese Chriss: The Phoenix Suns Prospect with a Mystery Ceiling

Read any sophisticated basketball article these days and you’ll see variations of the same thing: Big guys have to do more than just be big in the modern NBA.

Consider last year’s draft class. One rookie big put up per-36-minute averages of 15.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks while launching 224 total three-point attempts and knocking them down at a 32 percent clip. This particular newbie was also touted as the best athlete among his first-year peers.

That mystery man is Marquese Chriss, the Phoenix Suns’ eighth overall selection in 2016. For all the aura and intrigue that surrounded him during the draft process, more might exist after his initial professional campaign.

Despite playing in 82 games, reviews were mixed for the now 20-year-old. Chriss, who started playing organized basketball at the age of 14, found himself in the NBA a half-decade later, starting 75 times as a rookie. That’s a feat on its own that should be celebrated. Add the solid shooting and the decent numbers, and Chriss was a welcomed selection to the All-Rookie Second Team.

But there were also the plays that made fans scratch their heads. Chriss was second in the league in fouls, despite playing only 21 minutes per contest. He only shot 34 percent on attempts more than three feet away from the basket. There were numerous missed dunks, blown mental assignments and other growing pains that rookies, especially ones with as little experience as Marquese, go through. For the good and for the improving, the clock ticks on every player during their career, and it ticks louder for lottery picks.

So what can we glean from Chriss’ rookie campaign that points to a brighter future, or at least makes the hyper-athletic teenager a more predictable player heading into his sophomore crusade?

Transition Play

Someone as athletic as Chriss needs to play with a lack of constraints, so transition sets and a general lightning pace are great uses of his freak assets. He fits well with the Suns, a team that took gamble after gamble on the defensive end to try and start the break. Aggressive defensive schemes mean more chances to play in the open floor, and he reaped the benefits. He scored two points per game in transition with a very solid 1.26 points per possession (PPP), according to NBA.com’s player tracking data.

Those numbers are good enough to vault Chriss into the top tier of transition scorers; he finished in the 77th percentile of fast-break efficiency. Diving into the tape reveals several ways he scores in the open floor, all of which make him a nightmare in Phoenix’s run-and-gun system.

First and foremost, he’s fast enough and plays hard enough to simply beat guys down the floor and get to the rim before anyone else:

Most NBA 4s or 5s will fill the role of a trailer at some point during a transition or semi-transition play. This means they are the last ones up the court, not engaging in an all-out sprint as they seek to provide late-arrival spacing and begin the possession from their guarding position closer to the basket they defend. Chriss already has a knack for picking his spots when trailing the play and finding the seams to cut. Trailers are oftentimes open because their man gets sucked into defending the ball or helping a scrambled defense before it can get set. And in these situations, Chriss can knife to the rim after a slow jaunt to the forecourt:

According to Chriss’ shot chart at Swish 2.0, he only put down 24 percent on three-point attempts in the top third of the arc, the area where most trailers will spot up in these transition moments. If he improves upon that shot, the deepest of the long-ball looks, it may open more opportunities to blast down the lane and rise up for one of his powerful slams.

Chriss is nearly a 7-footer, yet he moves effortlessly like a guard in the open court. While not the most skilled with the ball in his hands by any means, he can handle it enough to get past other big men when given space. No play type has or creates more spacing than transition; a backpedaling defense has no chance against one quick or deceptive move. How about a funky Euro-step where Chriss picks up his dribble and starts his move at the three point line?

 

Slip Actions

For those who may not know, a slip is when a player goes to set a screen or engage in a handoff, then darts to the rim at the last second before he arrives while the defenders prepare for the two-man action. It’s an effective way to get open in the lane and lull opposing players to sleep, and no rookie was better than Chriss at changing directions and using this as a weapon:

There’s a certain art form to slipping an action: It’s a sales job on your opponent, and the work is done before the ball is even in the salesman’s hands. Spin moves, step-and-go actions or simply out-hustling his man all make Chriss is an expert in deception. It’s hard to know how many of these plays are scripted and how much freedom he and the point guard have to read the defense and establish a wink-wink chemistry.

Either way, the reputation is getting out. Chriss wants to get to the rim as much as possible for these terrorizing slams. Play him or the ball-handler on a screen too tight, and he’ll be able to get there.

The next step is making those defenders who stay behind Chriss and don’t bite on anything near the perimeter pay. His pick-and-pop game is not refined; his footwork needs to improve, and he struggles to quickly reach open spaces. Chriss also shot only 38.9 percent as the roll man in ball-screen scenarios last year—an abysmal rate for any player in the league. He must become more of a threat and consistent piece off the middle pick-and-roll if he wants more opportunities to sniff the rim when these lobs are taken away.

Perimeter Drives

Again, there should be no surprise that the best types of plays for Chriss are the ones where he gets to utilize his quickness and explosiveness against frontcourt players Transition, set-up alley-oop plays in the half-court and, finally, one-on-one drives from the top of the key against stiffer defenders are his bread and butter. Per Basketball-Reference’s somewhat-subjective position tracker, Chriss spent a solid 13 percent at center for the Suns last season, a number due to rise with better pick-and-roll defense. He doesn’t need to play that spot, though. He can get to the basket against even the quickest and most athletic forwards.

One of my favorite plays for an offense to run is an exchange at the top of the key, whether it is a dribble-handoff/pitch action, or a simple cut across the floor from an off-ball player. Defenders are trained to keep their back to the basket so they can see their man and the ball. In the spaces near the top of the key where two defenders struggle to see laterally, they can bump into each other and give a ball-handler an opening directly to the rim:

Is it an illegal screen? Pretty difficult to call this one here since Damian Lillard makes literally zero effort to do anything other than backpedal on the play. But his movement does enough to impede Noah Vonleh’s position on Chriss. It takes some recognition from Chriss to see the drive open before Vonleh gets bumped, and you can see that he starts his drive before this play happens. Subtle actions like this help utilize his ball-handling and face-up skills while showcasing brief high-IQ moments.

Some of these plays are not just blind luck where the Suns let Chriss loose or capitalize on poor defensive execution. He’s shown flashes of high-level play when he’s the No. 1 option within a particular set:

The play above is a designed isolation for Chriss, but not one where he’s playing at the center position. Out of a Horns formation, the Suns get the ball to him at the elbow and look to clear out the right side for him to attack with his strong hand. Alex Len clears under the play to the baseline, and Tyler Ulis moves to the left side as well. But Chriss gets his man to overplay the right side and doesn’t waste any time making him pay. A quick jab right and then a blitz to the rim gets him a dunk.

It’s a savvy move from a rookie, despite the scoreboard indicating the Miami Heat defense may not care about the bucket. Several rookies will look to go to their strong hand too frequently, especially when their number is called for an isolation. The speed with which Chriss makes the decision to break away from the call and simply take the best route to the rim is a positive sign. There are some horses in the tank for him, even though he may not know how to properly use them yet.

No player in the league can survive on athleticism alone. They must have some other tenets to their game. High-IQ and understanding, defensive precision, shot-making ability—the list goes on. Chriss did not put together a poor rookie season, but the areas he thrived in were all flagrantly founded upon athleticism. Time and seasoning will help such a raw prospect improve those other aspects, but one area in particular necessitates immediate advancement more than others.

Defense and Fouling Rate

Any way you slice the numbers, Chriss fouls way too much. His 263 personals were good for second in the league and by far and away the most amongst rookies. Just one other beginner (Domantas Sabonis) recorded over 200 fouls. Not one of those five kiddies played more minutes than Phoenix’s cub.

And it gets worse.

The last rookie to have more than 250 personal fouls? Jason Thompson in 2008-09, when he led the NBA with 314 personals. The per-36-minute numbers still come out with Thompson fouling less frequently (4.9 per 36 minutes) than Chriss (5.4). Only three neophytes since Thompson’s mark a decade ago have fouled more than 240 times: Stephen Curry, Derrick Favors and Karl-Anthony Towns.

To insinuate that Chriss is the only rookie, or even the only young guy in Phoenix, with a fouling problem is to overlook common league trends that indicate first-year talents commit more personal fouls than most others. Of the 20 players with the highest foul rate who logged at least 200 total minutes last season, six were rookies. Both Alan Williams and Alex Len registered higher on the list than Chriss.

Personally, I believe this is as much an indictment of the Suns’ super-aggressive defensive scheme as it is Chriss’ defensive refinement. Head coach Earl Watson has them shoot passing lanes, reach for steals and do anything they can to create extra possessions and transition opportunities. Chriss reaps the benefits of that when it comes to offense, but he isn’t able to stay on the court as long thanks to the ramifications at the other end. Phoenix was in the top five of steals last season, while also leading the league in personal fouls per game—high risk, high reward.

Herein lies the issue with looking at players through such a specific lens: Is Chriss really to blame for his foul woes? Surely Watson isn’t telling him to go out there and hack a bunch, but the fouls are a byproduct of his aggression, so they’re something Watson will live with. Chris Herring of FiveThirtyEight did a wonderful study on the Suns’ foul rate earlier this Spring and some of the conclusions are vital to understanding where and how players like Chriss can clean up their act.

“If I’m the only young guy out there with four veterans, those four can kind of direct traffic and help cover for me when I mess up,” Chriss said, per Herring. “But when it’s a situation where everybody on the floor is, at most, 3 or 4 years into their career, that’s kind of tough, because then we’re all kind of lost, and still learning how to communicate with each other as players.”

The risk-reward attached to steal-hunting, combined with the lack of veteran presences in Phoenix, has certainly hindered Chriss’ capacity to remain on the floor. Still, deflecting blame to other schematic issues that are out of his control won’t help him become a better player and eradicate that issue altogether. He must clean up his defense in a major way—and he has a long way to go.

Case in point: his pick-and-roll defense.

Last season, Chriss yielded 1.38 points per possession to roll men, placing him in the bottom five percent of PnR defenders. Teams scored against him nearly 56 percent of the time he was placed in pick-and-rolls. That is far more concerning than any foul-rate metric.

It’s too early to give up on Chriss’ defense, though. Not only is he just 20, but he found himself in a situation where he logged heavy minutes likely before he was ready—baptism by fire that begets growing pains. Many of his wrinkles will be ironed out with experience, and it helps that he currently plays beside two veterans who are ideal mentors for his skill set: a premier rim-protector and PnR defender in Tyson Chandler, and a modern stretch-4 in Jared Dudley.

For all the inconsistencies, all the frustrations and all the pot-of-gold athleticism he possesses, Chriss needs one thing above all else before we start making sweeping judgments about the trajectory of his career: more time.

 

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com.