How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
2. End-of-Bench Pieces
3. Depth Pieces
4. High-End Backups
5. Low-End Starters
6. Solid Starters
7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
8. All-Star Candidates
9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
10. Lesser MVP Candidates
11. MVP Frontrunners
12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Portland Trail Blazers, who still boast one of the league’s best backcourts with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

18. Isaiah Briscoe: 1.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 12.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, 140.53 TPA (for Kentucky Wildcats)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Isaiah Briscoe is here because of the work he did for the Philadelphia 76ers during summer league. He consistently demonstrated a selfless desire to find open teammates out of the pick-and-roll, buckled down on defense and proved just how well-rounded his game could be, as it often was during his two years for the Kentucky Wildcats.

In six games, the point guard averaged 5.5 points, 1.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 0.8 steals. Those numbers aren’t exactly astronomical, but they came while Briscoe shot 50 percent from the field and did the little things well. The total product was enough for Portland to give him a shot at providing depth at the 1, though he’ll have to show some semblance of outside shooting in order to stick.

17. C.J. Wilcox: 1.33

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 1.0 points, 0.5 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.1 steals, minus-18.95 TPA (for Orlando Magic)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Some players forget how to shoot. C.J. Wilcox Forgot—complete with a capital “F”—how to shoot during his brief stint with the Orlando Magic. He hit only eight of his 31 field-goal attempts (25.8 percent) and just three of his 15 triples (20.0 percent), which gave him a putrid 32.9 percent true shooting percentage—lower than his sophomore campaign, which was, in turn, lower than his rookie number. Among every single player who’s logged at least 20 appearance in a season and taken no fewer than a shot per game, only 30 have posted more unpalatable scores.

Still, there’s hope Wilcox could turn his two-way contract into meaningful minutes.

A 6’5″ shooting guard with a 6’9.75″ wingspan, he has the size and athleticism necessary to hold his own defensively, and he was heralded for his shooting pedigree before he entered the ranks of professionals. Give him a chance to gain some semblance of a rhythm, and he might remind the world of the form that helped him connect on his 7.2 treys per game at a 39.1 percent clip during his final year at Washington.

16. Jake Layman: 1.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.2 points, 0.7 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-15.92 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (Arjun Baradwaj)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

As Mike Richman explained for the Oregonian, Jake Layman will likely continue to develop behind the scenes, waiting for an opportunity to crack the rotation and play bigger minutes:

Layman is an NBA caliber athlete with a picturesque shooting stroke (even when it clangs off the rim for a few months), but entering his second season his potential can still be safely appreciated without much pressure on him to produce as a reliable part of the rotation. He will likely still be buried deep on the the Blazers depth chart behind Evan Turner, Moe Harkless and even Pat Connaughton. The Blazers can help Layman develop behind the scenes for most of this season before considering how he fits into the long term plans for the franchise.

Still, he’s already an NBA Math folk hero.

For a while in 2016-17, he was leading all rookies in TPA. As the rest of the first-year crop struggled in bigger roles, he sat pretty with a red-hot start to his career in garbage time. Seventeen points in eight minutes—on 6-of-8 shooting, no less—will do that when the buckets come during your professional debut.

15. Pat Connaughton: 1.81

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.5 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.1 blocks, X TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Fortunately for Pat Connaughton, he can just fall back on his MLB dreams if the NBA plan doesn’t work out. Most professional athletes don’t have that luxury.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the 24-year-old will be giving anything less than 100 percent in his pursuit of a spot in the Rip City rotation. He’s now coming off a year in which he demonstrated a consistent shooting stroke (51.5 percent from downtown on limited attempts) while continuing to show off his jaw-dropping athleticism. Once defenders learn to fear his perimeter game, Connaughton will provide plenty of gravity with his dual ability to knock down spot-up attempts and cut to the hoop for alley-oop finishes.

14. Archie Goodwin: 1.81

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 7.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-4.93 TPA (for New Orleans Pelicans and Brooklyn Nets)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Archie Goodwin already has four NBA seasons under his belt, but he’s still just 23 years old. He has plenty of time to keep improving, since his main contributions have come via garbage-time dunks and highlight-reel plays while he fails to improve his three-point stroke. This past season was his best yet, and he knocked down only 33.3 percent of his deep tries for the New Orleans Pelicans and Brooklyn Nets.

Still, his improvements at the charity stripe offer hope for future growth, and you can’t teach his natural athleticism. So long as he continues to pester opposing ball-handlers when he’s not cutting with ferocity—he scored 1.5 points per possession on cuts last year, albeit in a limited sample—he’ll continue to earn end-of-bench minutes with marginal promise of something more.

13. Anthony Morrow: 2.38

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 5.5 points, 0.6 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.5 steals, minus-62.24 TPA (for Oklahoma City Thunder and Chicago Bulls)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

If Anthony Morrow is knocking down his triples, he has value to his current organization. If he’s not, he doesn’t.

Honestly, it’s as simple as that for this one-dimensional 32-year-old, who has served as one of the league’s deadliest spot-up shooters for quite some time. Whether teammates feed him in the shooting pocket or hit him with an elevated pass that allows for his quick, one-motion catch and release from eye level, he’s at his best when he’s set up beyond the arc and waiting to provide points in groups of three.

Last year, he just never found the stroke. Splitting time between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Chicago Bulls, he took 2.7 attempts per game but made a career-worst 30.8 percent. That’s a drastic departure from both his lifetime 42.5 percent average heading into the year, as well as his 38.7 percent clip for the Thunder in 2015-16.

12. Shabazz Napier: 2.38

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.1 points, 1.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals, minus-22.69 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (Louie Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Adam Fromal)

Shabazz Napier finally started scoring off the Portland bench in 2016-17, averaging 15.3 points per 36 minutes. And while it was exciting to see the ball go in the basket for this disappointing former first-round pick, he still slashed just 39.9/37.0/77.6. The three-point percentage is all you should write home about, and that didn’t change much after the All-Star break, when the slash line grew to 40.9/41.7/83.3.

The 26-year-old clearly has some potential as a scoring spark for the second unit. But is that worth the rest of his flaws? He remains a limited defender and inconsistent distributor who’s heavily reliant on his pull-up jumper, and he’s still one of the league’s worst finishers around the hoop. During 2016-17, he connected on just 43.2 percent of his shots from within three feet, and that was a drastic uptick after logging 25.9 percent one year earlier.

Unless he gives defenders a reason to respect his drives, they’ll play him in suffocating fashion. The scouting report is out now.

11. Zach Collins: 2.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 19
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.8 blocks, 137.57 TPA (for Gonzaga Bulldogs)
• Highest Grade: 5 (Louie Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

“Zach Collins, the only other center taken in the lottery, could also see time behind Jusuf Nurkic in Portland,” Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman wrote while projecting Bam Adebayo as this rookie class’ best center and listing Zach Collins as an honorable mention. “He’s skilled and light on his feet. Collins just played 17.3 minutes per game during one season at Gonzaga and will need a year before he can be consistently relied on.”

Collins might be capable of making an outsized impact on both ends during limited minutes, but it’s hard to forecast him filling anything but a small role for Portland during his rookie season. The jump from the West Coast Conference to the NBA is hard enough for players who logged a full workload in college, but he’s a 19-year-old who didn’t play big minutes at Gonzaga during his freshman season.

Eventually, Collins could grow into a floor-spacing stretch 5 with serious rim-protecting skills. Just expect those to show up in far smaller doses during the inaugural go-round.

10. Ed Davis: 2.81

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.5 blocks, minus-31.79 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (Michael Brock)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

At this point in his career, Ed Davis is never going to develop into a star.

He barely has any range on the offensive end, with a whopping 99.3 percent of his field-goal attempts coming from within 10 feet. Even more staggeringly, 71.9 percent of his tries came from within three feet, and that was actually down from last year. Per NBA Miner, only five players who suited up at least 40 times saw their average shot distance come closer to the hoop.

But with his long arms and knack for interior positioning, Davis can make a defensive impact while cleaning the glass with aplomb. Self-awareness is a crucial skill for NBA role players, and this former Tar Heel certainly possesses it.

9. Caleb Swanigan: 2.81

• Age at start of 2017-18: 20
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 18.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, 211.58 TPA (for Purdue Boilermakers)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

In eight games at Las Vegas Summer League, Caleb Swanigan averaged 16.1 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.4 blocks while shooting 43.8 percent from the field and 80.6 percent at the stripe. He might not have won MVP for his efforts, but he wasn’t far behind Lonzo Ball in the race for exhibition season’s premier award.

Looking every bit the part of a future double-double threat at the NBA level, he was just that dominant.

Though Zach Collins was picked 16 slots ahead of Swanigan, out voters recognized that the Purdue product has more immediate upside. He’s ready to contribute on the glass right away, and his skill on the perimeter makes him an even more intriguing option. Three panelists already have this power forward pegged as an upper-tier backup, and he could justify that—and then some—by earning a spot in the starting lineup with consistent hustle on both ends of the floor.

8. Meyers Leonard: 2.88

• Age at start of 2017-18: 25
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 5.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.4 blocks, minus-83.7 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (Nick Birdsong)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Remember when Meyers Leonard was going to be the next big thing?

That ship has sailed, but it doesn’t mean the 25-year-old can’t settle in as the rare center who can both knock down three-pointers and capably protect the rim. He’s shown flashes of both tools during previous seasons, but he’s never quite been able to put the pieces together at the same time—partially due to a steady stream of injuries that haven’t allowed him to spend much time at full strength.

This last season, Leonard’s mid-range game and three-point stroke disappeared. Still an adept finisher around the hoop (70.6 percent within three feet), he knocked down just 34.7 percent of his triples while misfiring from nearly every other range, which was rather troubling after he made more than he missed from every two-point zone one year earlier. Meanwhile, he allowed opponents to shoot 51.5 percent when he was stationed at the rim—a far cry from 42.3 percent in 2014-15.

Leonard is no longer guaranteed minutes, and that may be a good thing. He has to find some way to get his career back on the right trajectory and regain the confidence he once possessed. Perhaps competition will bring out the best in him.

7. Noah Vonleh: 3.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, minus-96.85 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (Michael Brock)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (Adam Spinella)

The idea of Noah Vonleh remains intriguing. Every team wants a physical double-double threat at power forward who has the foot speed necessary to cut to the hoop and the touch necessary to knock down plenty of mid-range jumpers. Given his size and length, he could even make a substantial impact on defense and help clean up behind the porous starting backcourt.

However, consistency has eluded Vonleh ever since the Charlotte Hornets made him the No. 9 pick of the 2014 NBA draft.

He finally looked like he was taking the next step toward the end of the 2016-17 campaign, blossoming after the All-Star break to average 6.7 points and 7.2 rebounds while shooting 57.5 percent from the field. But is that sustainable? The answer likely depends on how much this former Indiana standout is asked to do.

Fourteen of our 16 voters viewed Vonleh as a depth piece, and that’s likely the best role for him, even if he remains in the starting lineup. He shouldn’t be featured heavily, but should instead be asked to pick up the slack for shorter spurts and in lesser areas.

6. Evan Turner: 3.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 9.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks, minus-86.84 TPA
• Highest Grade: 5 (Eric Spyropoulos)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Evan Turner’s first foray into Rip City was a series of unfortunate events.

First came his bloated contract, which will likely make him seem disappointing even as he starts to mesh with his teammates. Then he struggled immensely during the season’s opening salvo, rarely finding the bottom of the net and having issues accepting and thriving in his new, more limited role. He finally started to look more promising in January, but a broken hand knocked him out of the lineup, and he couldn’t pick up where he left off upon his return.

Fortunately, he has a decent chance to do so in 2017-18. Turner now understands that he can have success in head coach Terry Stotts’ schemes by playing high-quality perimeter defense and lightening the responsibilities faced by his starting guards, then serving as a secondary pick-and-roll option on the other end. He’ll never be a convincing deep shooter and won’t post the numbers he earned with the Boston Celtics, but his value doesn’t have to show up in the box score.

5. Maurice Harkless: 4.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks, 35.83 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (Tom Rende)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Question: How many qualified players in 2016-17 shot better than 35 percent from downtown, took at least two deep attempts per game and posted a defensive box plus/minus of at least 0.5?

Follow-up question: How many players met those benchmarks while also shooting 50 percent from the field, thanks to either their work as finishers near the hoop or some serious mid-range prowess?

Twenty-four men met the first set of qualifications last year. But Harkless was one of only six to fulfill the secondary requirement as well, joining LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Otto Porter Jr., Andre Iguodala and Kelly Olynyk. He may not yet be a true three-and-D commodity, but he picks up the slack with his shooting in other areas and is on the verge of bigger and better things while potentially stepping into the shoes of the departed Allen Crabbe.

4. Al-Farouq Aminu: 4.88

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 8.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks, minus-39.29 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

Strides as a shooter would be nice one year after slashing 39.3/33.0/70.6, but offense will never be Al-Farouq Aminu’s primary source of value. He’s a devastatingly effective rebounder coming off a season in which he pulled down 9.2 boards per 36 minutes, and he’s even better on the defensive end. That, more than anything, is his forte.

Aminu doesn’t block many shots or rack up steals. Instead, he plays fundamental and physical defense that allows him to slow down all different types of assignments, and it’s tough to find any one area in which you can consistently attack him. Challenging him in isolation was a terrible idea; only 10 players added more defensive value there, per NBA Math’s Play Type Profiles. Ditto for attempting to beat him as a roll man, spot-up shooter or post-up threat.

In general, opponents quickly learned (remembered?) they should just avoid this forward, who’s now fully in the midst of his prime years.

3. Jusuf Nurkic: 5.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.1 blocks, minus-8.5 TPA (for Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers)
• Highest Grade: 7 (Adam Fromal)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (Louie Vicchiollo)

Jusuf Nurkic was a completely different player once he joined the Trail Blazers, and not just because he averaged a scorching 15.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.9 blocks while shooting 50.8 percent from the field.

The conditioning issues that plagued him with the Denver Nuggets were gone. In their place came a newfound ability to protect the rim—opponents shot 53.3 percent while he was stationed at the basket, but he defended an impressive 9.2 attempts per game—and a willingness to dish out dimes that helped involve his talented teammates. He immediately elevated the team, pushing the net rating 11.1 points per 100 possessions higher, which stands in stark contrast to the minus-12.3 swing when he suited up in the Mile High City.

Had Nurkic not fractured his leg, an injury that forced him to miss the end of the regular season and all but one playoff contest against the Golden State Warriors, perception might be different. He had the impact of an All-Star during his brief stint in Portland, but the sample is far too small for any of our voters to be sure he can maintain that level of play for an entire season. Two panelists still couldn’t even view him as a starter.

2. C.J. McCollum: 7.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 23.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks, 61.96 TPA
• Highest Grade: 9 (Adam Fromal)
• Lowest Grade: 7 (multiple voters)

Want to see something beautiful? Here ya go:

C.J. McCollum’s smooth offensive game allowed him to add value in literally every play type during the 2016-17 season. Add it all together, and only eight players–including one of his teammates—did more with their possessions that ended in turnovers or field-goal attempts, as compared to what league-average players would’ve produced with those same possessions, per NBA Math’s Play Type Profiles.

With a silky jumper that allows him to connect from long range or pull up and use a high release to get the shot off above a defender’s outstretched arms, McCollum can simply score from anywhere. Throw in his growing game as a facilitator, and he manages to overcome his point-preventing problems by a significant margin.

1. Damian Lillard: 8.38

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 27.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks, 238.8 TPA
• Highest Grade: 9 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 8 (multiple voters)

Damian Lillard still treats screens like they’re brick walls when he’s playing defense, but his offensive game is so deadly that the porosity is almost irrelevant. Sure, it would be nice if he could corral more opposing point guards and stop allowing so much dribble penetration. But as long as he’s exploding to the rim for thunderous finishes and excelling as a pull-up marksman, he’ll be just fine.

In a world that features sharpshooters such as Stephen Curry, Lillard is doomed to be overlooked. And yet, he’s on a historic pace from beyond the arc, with 1,042 drained treys in his first five seasons. Only Klay Thompson (1,060) has posted more in that same stretch, while Curry lags behind in third (905). Next up is Ben Gordon (770).

But Lillard’s shooting prowess is even more impressive because he’s connected at a 37.0 percent clip throughout his career and creates an inordinate number of his deep opportunities off the bounce. Just 52.1 percent of his makes have required assists, whereas Thompson and Curry needed 92.9 and 63.3 percent to come off feeds during their first five years, respectively.

When you’re talking about the NBA’s best snipers, please don’t omit Lillard.

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo