The Rise, Fall and Possible Redemption of Brandon Jennings
Brandon Jennings shoots to get hot, and he shoots to stay hot. He shoots when he’s open, and he shoot’s when he’s not. Unfortunately for the point guard, he’s shot himself right out of the NBA and back overseas.
He’s played there once before, but this isn’t what the 28-year-old expected during the middle of his prime.
Coming out of high school, he was supposed to be a pioneer for the NBA landscape. ESPN had him ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the 2008 class, ahead of future professional stars such as Jrue Holiday (fourth), DeMar DeRozan (eighth) and Kemba Walker (14th). After originally pledging to attend college at USC, he switched his commitment to Arizona. Then came the questions about his SAT scores. After taking the test three times, he was unable to obtain high enough marks to enroll in college. Having to wait the mandatory year before beginning his NBA career, he decided to play professionally in Italy.
He was the first American basketball player to skip college and go pro overseas. This led some to believe he was an innovator when, in fact, he was a rebel without a cause.
It turns out, playing professional basketball at age 19 and in a foreign country is a difficult thing to do. Jennings only averaged 6.3 points per game while shooting 38.1 percent from the field during EuroLeague. Scouts also began to worry about his outside shooting ability, as he made a dreadful 23.2 percent of his three-point attempts. It’s also important to note, however, Jennings was playing for Lottomotica Roma in the Italian Serie A, which is widely believed to be a tougher league than the NCAA.
The struggles outweighed the highlights in Italy, but the Milwaukee Bucks still saw upside and selected Jennings with the No. 10 pick of the 2009 NBA draft—DeRozan, for what it’s worth, was drafted one spot ahead at No. 9.
Bucks fans were immediately enamored with him, as he carried himself with a swagger the team had been missing since the days of Ray Allen, Glenn “Big Dog” Robinson and Sam Cassell. Kicking off his rookie campaign with a boom also didn’t hurt. Not just a boom; I mean a BOOM!
In his first regular-season game, he nearly recorded a triple-double against the Philadelphia 76ers, dropping 17 points, nine assists and nine rebounds in a losing effort. His energy and passion for the game were instantly palpable to fans watching at home.
If that wasn’t exciting enough, he went bonkers and scored 55 points against the Golden State Warriors in just his seventh career game. He nailed seven of his eight three-point attempts and hit a variety of floaters, pull-up Js and slippery drives to the rim.
He quickly established himself as a high-usage, shoot-first point guard. His usage percentage of 26.0 in 2008-09 ranked 28th in the NBA, slightly below guys like Derrick Rose (27.1), Joe Johnson (26.7) and Tim Duncan (26.4). Horrifically, his true shooting percentage of 47.5 ranked 275th out of 293 players who played 50 games that season.
On the surface, he may have looked like a budding star. But true NBA fans knew better.
Though Jennings made small improvements during his sophomore year, he missed 19 games in December due to a broken foot. He finished the season with a 49.3 percent true shooting percentage on a slightly lower usage percentage (25.0).
Defense, strangely enough, was where he made the biggest impact during those first two seasons. He constantly peppered his man with nagging defense that lasted the entire length of the floor, which led his opponent to turn the ball over at least 16.5 times per 100 possessions over those first two years. But in spite of his defensive success, Milwaukee failed to realize the diminutive point guard wasn’t built to sustain such a heavy load on the offensive end. It never adjusted.
Throughout the 2011-12 season, Jennings may have averaged a career high in points (19.1), but his true shooting percentage (51.4) remained in the bottom half of the league while his usage stood at an alarmingly high rate (25.8). His high-volume chucking led to less-than-ideal results for his team. After finishing 10 games over .500 his rookie year, Milwaukee wouldn’t tally a winning record for the rest of his tenure with the team. Although it did make the playoffs in his final year, it was with a 38-44 record, and the Bucks were promptly swept by the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs.
After a compelling start to his career, Jennings had established himself as a streaky shooter who was more likely to go cold than hot. Despite this, he was pushing for a contract that would pay him about $48 million over four seasons:
Jennings demanding $12M a season; Bucks starting to cave and are offering just over $11M.
— Gery Woelfel (@GeryWoelfel) July 8, 2013
Unfortunately for this floor general, the Bucks didn’t cave in the end, leaving him as a restricted free agent during the summer of 2013. He ended up settling for a three-year, $25 million deal with the Detroit Pistons in a sign-and-trade. Similar to on the basketball court, Jennings took a big shot in the offseason but fell short in the end.
The southpaw then spent two-and-a-half seasons in Detroit, which saw him continue to mire in mediocracy.
During his first season there, he hoisted a career-low 15.0 field-goal attempts per game and also saw his true shooting percent drop to 48.6—the lowest since his rookie year. In a trademark case of letting poor offensive play affect both ends of the floor, he failed to play the aggravating defense he had become known for. His defensive box plus/minus also dropped to a career-low minus-2.6.
Regardless of the shooting numbers, Jennings appeared to find his way as a passer. He averaged 8.0 assists per 36 minutes throughout 2013-14—a 1.5 assist increase from the previous season (and prior career high). Concurrently, he provided assists on 34.4 percent of his teammates’ made field-goals while he was on the floor that season, which ranked 10th in the NBA among qualified players.
The point guard out of Compton carried his new-found passing willingness into the following year with Detroit. This time, he raised his assist percentage even higher (39.9) and punctuated it with an amazing 21-dime performance against the Orlando Magic:
Disastrously, he ruptured his Achilles tendon in the next game and missed the rest of the season.
Jennings returned just before the calendar flipped to 2016. However, he appeared to be missing a part of the quickness that he relied upon so heavily. Because of that, his true shooting percentage remained subpar (49.1), and his assist numbers dropped this time, as well. He put up a career-low 25.7 assist percentage upon his return with the Pistons.
Nevertheless, that didn’t last long, as he was shipped to the Orlando Magic just 23 games after returning from injury. The move marked the beginning to his time as an NBA journeyman at age 26.
He signed with the New York Knicks in July 2016, before being waived seven months later after they couldn’t find a trade partner. He then signed with the Washington Wizards two days later and played some of the worst basketball of his life. His total points added of minus-108.57, per NBA Math, was not only the worst of his career, but it was only better than 19 other players last season.
Due in part to NBA teams’ gross overestimate of the cap last summer and Jennings’ disappointing season, he was unable to secure an NBA contract when faced with free agency this summer. Instead, he opted to return overseas, where his professional career began. But this time, he heads to China on a one-season, $1.5 million deal.
A year away from the highest competition in the world might be exactly what he needs to refine his game.
Regaining the quickness that once defined his game is key if he wants to have a positive impact again. It allows him to create driving lanes and find teammates for open shots. The following clip is a great example of the pros and cons of the state of his game:
As he brings the ball up the floor, he uses a hesitation and look-off to catch the 35-year-old Jameer Nelson in an upright position. Before the injury, this would’ve been an easy layup for Jennings, as the lane is wide open beyond his man. Unfortunately, that burst wasn’t there, and he smartly dished it to the corner for an open three.
Due to the loss of his elite quickness, he will have to drastically alter his style of play, as his whole game was predicated upon that ability.
The best chance he has of doing so is to reduce the number of shots he takes per game. Selectivity can be his friend if he does it right. Instead of relying on mid-range jumpers and floaters, he should adopt the Daryl Morey style of play—threes and layups. The short-range finishes will be harder to come by at first, which is why the triples are the key to his success.
Jennings only knocked down 28.8 percent of his pull-up attempts from beyond the arc last season. That’s a far cry from the 34.7 percent he was making during his last full season in Detroit, back in 2013-14. To become an impact player once again, he must return to the 35 percent mark. As he begins knocking down the outside jumper with consistency, defenses will creep up on him, which will allow him an easier time driving past his man and finishing around the hoop—an area in which he only finished 41.3 percent of his shots last year (league average was 57.0).
In order to successfully return to the league—he’s shared that this is a goal—a year away might be exactly what he needs for his confidence. It will also give him more time to regain full strength in his Achilles, an injury that he’ll be three years removed from come January 2018.
If it works out, he could be thought of as the pioneer he once tried to become as a teenager. If it doesn’t…well, this could become the last chapter in the Brandon Jennings story.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
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