Offense Only: The Blueprint for Jahlil Okafor to Survive in Today’s NBA
Somehow, only two years into his NBA career, Jahlil Okafor already stands out as one of the most polarizing players in the league—and not for what he’s done, but instead because of what he isn’t.
After winning a National Championship at Duke, hype around the 7-footer reached a fever pitch in 2015. The Philadelphia 76ers took him with the No. 3 pick in that year’s draft, and everyone scratched their heads from Day 1. This marked the third consecutive season the Sixers turned their high-lottery selection into center. Okafor’s potential to thrive ran up against a glass ceiling before he even played a game in that uniform.
Sure enough, things haven’t gotten better after two seasons. Joel Embiid, despite only playing 31 career games, is poised to be the face of the franchise and their cornerstone down low. Nerlens Noel, the elder statesmen of the three coveted centers, was shipped out on the cheap. And months of trade rumors surrounding Okafor were halted not by superior play or the Noel deal, but a season-ending injury.
Few players go from playing 30 minutes per game while averaging 17.5 points and 7.0 rebounds as a rookie to playing only 22 minutes per contest the next year. Even fewer do so while shooting nearly 70 percent at the rim. But that rookie campaign seems so long ago amidst the craze in Philadelphia, and Okafor’s been written off as an over-hyped, score-first big man who isn’t worth the burned lottery pick he rode in on.
Oh, how quickly we forget.
Diehard Okafor believers like to point out how he’s utilized in Philadelphia as a means for believing his best days are on the horizon. They’ll cite misused sets, poor lineups and a lack of three-point shooting around him as driving forces behind why things haven’t clicked with the Sixers—and, of course, the big-man pileup constantly standing in his way for consistent minutes and a cornerstone role.
And yet, there may be some merit to the assertion that Okafor is a little too one-dimensional for that big-time role.
The tape reveals that the flaws in Big Jah’s game aren’t easily remedied by play calls, new sets or improved spacing. He is a natural-born scorer. Averaging over 20 points per 36 minutes for his career proves that. He’s done immensely well leveraging his greatest strengths during his first two pro seasons, no matter what his minutes or raw stats indicate.
Not many people actually realize how talented Okafor is with the ball in his hands. He’s got some spryness to his step, replete with some solid ball-handling and quick feet. Get him the ball around the elbows, and he’ll occasionally make jaws drop with his nifty isolation moves:
Facing the hoop is required more and more of big men, and Okafor hasn’t disappointed in that regard. He ranked in the 75th percentile for isolation plays last season (not counting back-to-the-basket sets, as is customary on NBA.com’s stat databases) while getting over 20 percent of his usage in these situations. In fact, he placed inside the top 20 of isolation touches per game. The Sixers couldn’t have done anything more to accentuate his bag of tricks on this front.
Okafor leverages strong bounces and lateral quickness to go where he wants to go, no matter the defender. When starting from 15 feet away, he can get his signature move off every time—a quick spin back to his right hand for a baby hook:
This move isn’t the most sophisticated one, but it’s deadly. He’s so quick with his feet that defenders barely have time to challenge the shot. When dribbling to his left, there’s no guarding it; his left shoulder now acts as a buffer between defender and shooting arm. The Sixers, for that reason, loved to get him the ball on the right offensive elbow last season, allowing him to drive middle with that left hand so he can spin back to his trademark move.
As much as Okafor loves that right elbow, he thrives on the right block. When there, he loves to go baseline, shielding his right arm from defenders so he can reach beneath the hoop and scoop the ball in. That terrific wingspan serves him well here, as defenders frequently underestimate how difficult it can be to cut him off. Jason Smith finds that out the hard way below:
Put Okafor on the opposite block (the left), and he’ll try a similar maneuver, driving baseline and trying to get his man to bite and cut him off. Once his man jumps in front and shuts off the baseline, Okafor will go to his patented spin cycle, finishing with that right-hand hook:
Some defenders see the move coming and lose the battle anyway, as Okafor is so strong with his shoulders and has such great control over the ball that he can score in the tightest of windows.
But it’s here his lack of polish and weaknesses start to show.
Jah is as right-hand dominant as any scoring big man in the league. His massive mitts engulf the basketball so effectively they allow him to switch possession to his right hand and a shooting position with unfathomable agility, regardless of who’s defending him. But more savvy, well-scouted stoppers will read his one go-to move based off the side of the floor he posts on. If he’s on the right, he’s going baseline. If he’s on the left, it’s a spin-back middle with his right hand.
Here’s that same move against Dirk Nowitzki, who lets Okafor drive baseline and bury himself under the rim, then detaches from his left shoulder so he can alter the shot inevitably coming with the right hand:
Jahlil won’t even try to use his left when a defender sits on his right side. Right-hand dominant has become right-hand reliant, and that stands out below when DeMarcus Cousins blocks his shot because Okafor refuses to shield the ball from the interior defense:
Coaches preach about ambidextrous finishing around the basket because the defense is often allowed to get physical down low. Remove the ability to close the deal with either hand, and players become predictable, allowing defenses to key in on those subtleties. Sitting on a player’s strong shoulder and daring them to use their weak hand is an effective strategy at any level.
All this discussion comes without going into the weaknesses of Okafor’s jump shot, his lack of versatile rim-protection and defensive ability or how, for some reason, the Sixers have always performed abysmally in the rebounding department when he’s on the floor. These glaring flaws should make other teams hesitate before giving him an opportunity to be their franchise post player.
Still, his production is undeniable—the kid can flat-out score. Even if defenses know what he’s trying to do, Okafor is like a gazelle prancing through, around and over defenders to score at the rim. That skill will always have value, and some team should give him a shot at proving he can be a reliable top scoring threat. After all, he’s only halfway through his rookie-scale contract, and his offensive production far outweighs the financial costs of picking him up.
Even as camp got underway, Sixers general manager Bryan Colangelo told the media he was not shopping Jahlil. The polygraph for that statement would probably read like a seismic earthquake, as Colangelo sounds more like a desperate negotiator trying to squeeze every ounce of value over an asset he fully intends to sell.
The issue now is how low the Sixers are prepared to dip just to get rid of him. A 16-month rental of the big man, which any team acquiring him around mid-season would gain, is a long enough time for the Sixers to justifiably hold a steep asking price. Buyers certainly have to be aware of Okafor’s injury history, too. Currently, he’s not even playing full 5-on-5.
If those same teams wait until July, how many other towers are out there for more of a bargain than the Sixers might be requesting? Alex Len and Nerlens Noel are unrestricted free agents next summer, as are Derrick Favors, Brook Lopez, Greg Monroe and perhaps Enes Kanter (player option). Score-first skyscrapers will be available without the cost of trading a pick or valuable piece to get them.
This is the giant issue with the economics of the business side of basketball. No team is willing to pay the Sixers their asking price for Okafor. Neither side is in the wrong: Philadelphia should ask for a lot based on his numbers, upside and draft status, while other teams can find plenty of alternatives without giving up that high sticker price. The only real loser in the situation is Okafor, who rots on the pine in Philly while watching Richaun Holmes and Amir Johnson take minutes from him. These issues aren’t unique to this situation either—the league has had issues with this since the cap hasn’t climbed at the rates anticipated with the new CBA.
The last two years have seen a chilling market for posts on the restricted free-agent market. Teams aren’t willing to throw boatloads of cash at bigs when the game is going smaller. More and more coaches are taking their slow, plodding, score-first post threats and having them anchor a second unit while speed-and-shooting schemes dominate the starting lineups. The league is trending away from every go-to skill that Okafor touts.
Value exists in being a contrarian though; if the entire league goes too small, bruising teams down low and pounding the ball inside can become even more effective than normal. The New Orleans Pelicans are testing out that theory right now. No team must go to that drastic a measure to rightfully incorporate Okafor, but one needs to step up and put him down low as the anchor of their system.
The Chicago Bulls automatically jump out as a perfect landing spot. They’re rebuilding, can be patient with Okafor’s flaws, have a bunch of stretch-the-floor 4s(Nikola Mirotic, Lauri Markkanen) and absolutely need a go-to scorer right away. Jahlil would come back to his hometown Windy City if such a deal occurred, perhaps rescuing him from a career-defining backup role in Philadelphia.
And what about the Phoenix Suns? They were dead last for 2016-17 in post-up points per possession and bottom five in frequency, per NBA.com’s stats bureau. Head coach Earl Watson seems intent on spreading the floor and playing multi-positional defenders in the frontcourt, but the team has glaring needs at center. If history is any indicator, Alex Len is unlikely to return after signing his qualifying offer this September; only one player in NBA history has returned to his incumbent team the year after accepting such a deal. Phoenix is constantly shopping Tyson Chandler to suitors as well, leaving the center position largely unmanned.
Are any of the big men on Sacramento Kings really better than Okafor? (Skal Labissere and Willie Cauley-Stein aren’t exactly proven commodities.) What about the Atlanta Hawks, following their wholesale pivot? Do all these teams really believe the cost is too steep to bring in Okafor and give him a chance to prove he’s their guy?
Everything depends on how those potential suitors evaluate the magnitude of the flaws in his game. The pessimists will lean on the right-hand over-reliance and the ease with which rivals can scout against him. Optimists might choose to believe that his ability to produce in the face of those limitations is proof he can be an effective player—and, if those flaws are fixed, one of the most dominant interior scorers alive.
As for where yours truly falls, I’m somewhere closer to glass half-full than completely empty. Okafor will turn 22 in December and has spent two years being overshadowed by Noel and Embiid. His name has appeared in constant trade rumors, and off-court issues helped turn the loyal fanbase against him from the beginning.
Colangelo has all but given up on Okafor. Holmes may have surpassed Big Jah on their depth chart. The organization is bringing in post players left and right to compete for roster spots and playing time—Johnson, Kris Humphries, Emeka Okafor (no relation, sadly). Everyone is a stop-gap solution for role-player minutes at best. That Philadelphia won’t commit any sort of role to Jahlil despite his obvious effectiveness says more about the Sixers’ own distaste than the trends or market instabilities around the league.
A fresh start may be exactly what this guy needs.
Now Okafor enters his junior campaign slimmed down after a summer of vegan feasting, ready to prove his worth. It may not take long before a suitor comes in with an offer that sweeps the Sixers off their feet. And let’s hope that day comes soon, because he’s too intriguing a player to sit in the background on a team that doesn’t appreciate his value.
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