How the Milwaukee Bucks Can Maximize Giannis Antetokounmpo
First-year Milwaukee Bucks general manager Jon Horst is lucky.
He adopted a team that already conquered the most difficult aspect of roster building. Whether through internal development or via the open market, basketball evaluators will search all ends of the earth to find a world-class talent around whom they can sculpt their system, and Horst has been gifted the league’s most attractive building block.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has arrived. In his fifth season, the 22-year-old superstar has an early grasp on this season’s MVP race. According to NBA Math, he ranks fourth in total points added, a statistical algorithm that measures both offensive and defensive production on a per-possession basis and adjusts for volume. Simply put, Antetokounmpo has quickly grown into a two-way sensation and presents terrifying matchup nightmares for opposing coaches.
The turning point occurred in February 2016. Head coach Jason Kidd turned the 6’11” Greek Freak loose by putting the ball in his oversized hands and allowing him to quarterback the offense as a point forward. After that, his usage rate skyrocketed from 22.3 in 2014-15, to 28.3 last season, to a blistering 34.5 through 10 games this fall. Now that he’s locked in at a relatively affordable average of $25 million per year through 2020-21, Milwaukee should focus on maximizing his potential.
So how do they accommodate his strengths while simultaneously concealing the few remaining weaknesses?
Most notably, Antetokounmpo is unstoppable as a transition ball handler. This season, his 1.27 points per possession (PPP) in those situations ranks in the 90th percentile in efficiency, per Synergy Sports. He has an innate ability to grab a defensive rebound and use impossibly long strides to go coast-to-coast in three or four dribbles. Pair that with his unique shiftiness and rarefied ball-handling skills, and Giannis becomes invincible when he builds a head of steam in the open floor.
Giannis continues to improve as a facilitator.
Vision, feel and passing accuracy are all blossoming skill sets. At 25.9 percent, his assist rate is slightly down from last season, but it remains near the top of the league among all combo forwards. He won’t dazzle with needle-threading pocket passes, but the attention he garners creates countless passing and cutting lanes for his teammates. You won’t find many ball-handlers with 7’1″ wingspans, and his length allows him to navigate above the level of the defense.
Giannis is becoming elite at recognizing where help defenders are coming from, so expect more pinpoint crosscourt dishes like the one below. Only a few players possess the natural size and athleticism to master LeBron James’ patented 30-foot jump pass, and he’s already showing signs of that capability.
When Antetokounmpo is able to penetrate the paint—which is basically whenever he desires—he almost always collapses multiple defenders onto him.
Watch here as he instinctively leaks out after the turnover, races down the floor and draws the attention of three Atlanta Hawks players. The retreating and confused defense is so concerned with stopping him that it concedes the perimeter, allowing Tony Snell to trail the play for a wide-open transition three.
Outside shooting is the only hurdle keeping Antetokounmpo from becoming a world-beater. His 28 percent career three-point rate is underwhelming, and it’s no secret he prefers to get to the rim on every possession. Defenders consistently tempt Giannis with shooting cushions and will dip under screens in hopes that he will bypass his unstoppable driving skills.
Thus, from a floor-spacing perspective, Milwaukee should surround him with shooters who can flourish in non-ball-dominant roles. It’s why the sniper tandem of Tony Snell and Khris Middleton are ideal running mates. Both ranked in the 90th percentile last season in spot-up situations, per NBA Math’s Play-Type Profiles.
Greg Monroe was never able to develop solid chemistry playing alongside Giannis. From October 2016 to now, the Bucks had produced 0.89 PPP with them on the floor together, as opposed to 1.14 PPP when Antetokounmpo played without the lumbering space-eater, per nbawowy. During his time in Milwaukee, Monroe’s back-to-the-basket conventionality was as detrimental as his $17.8 million cap hit was. Now that he’s moving to Phoenix, the Bucks’ best player should have ample operating room to drive to the cup.
In theory, Thon Maker projects to be a better fit alongside Antetokounmpo. The 7’1″ sophomore has a soft shooting touch and is converting 37 percent of his shots from distance this season. If Maker can sustain that percentage at a high attempt rate, opposing bigs will be less inclined to shade off of him, leaving the basket unattended and without rim-protection. Trying to stop Giannis without a backline defender, as many have already learned, is nearly impossible.
In the below clip, Charlotte Hornets center Dwight Howard is forced to decide between either serving as a help defender on the the Antetokounmpo drive or sticking with Maker for the corner three. When he opts to help along the backline, Giannis makes the correct decision to find the open shooter.
A fluid athlete who runs the floor with nimble agility, the 20-year-old Maker should continue to perfect his rim-running skills, which may ultimately turn him into a true dual offensive threat alongside the team’s MVP candidate. His versatility presents yet another way for the Bucks to create additional gaps in the opposing defense, which should only enhance Antetokounmpo’s playmaking capabilities.
Monroe’s departure does, however, leave a void at the center spot.
In today’s seemingly positionless NBA, it’s fair to wonder whether Kidd will experiment with Antetokounmpo at the 5 in brief , matchup-specific stints. Asking him to bang with bruising glass-crashers would be ill-advised, but he could potentially dominate against small-ball stretch 5s who aren’t used to defending dynamic shot-creators.
Speaking of dynamic shot-creators, the Bucks haven’t been able to establish another ball-handler who is capable of generating offense off the dribble. Matthew Dellavedova has been disappointing since inking his $38.4 million deal . They have received surprising contributions from Malcolm Brogdon, but the 24-year-old isn’t a dynamic playmaker; with the Eastern Conference seemingly wide open, his role on a contending team projects as a high-end reserve. If Kidd wants to employ more of Antetokounmpo’s cutting skills, the Bucks will have to feature another offensive threat who can draw attention from opposing defenses.
Enter Eric Bledsoe.
Despite playing for a dysfunctional Phoenix Suns team, the 28-year-old guard is coming off his best season, in which he posted career highs in points (21.1) and assists (6.3) per game. He’ll provide some much needed playmaking and shot-creation—areas in which Giannis has been overly relied upon since Jabari Parker tore his ACL in February.
With another legitimate scoring threat now on the floor, Antetokounmpo should be deployed in more off-ball sets, and instinctual cutting may be the most underrated skill in his arsenal. Such plays equated to only 9.7 percent of his total output last season, but he was amazingly efficient, ranking in the 91st percentile overall as a cutter, per Synergy Sports. Giannis is frequently matched up with slower-footed forwards who cannot rival his athleticism, so filling an off-ball cutting role could result in some easy catch-and-score layups. If Bledsoe can develop a simple two-man chemistry with Giannis, he’ll be able to rack up plenty of easy assists.
Unlike many superstars playing in other small markets, Antetokounmpo appears committed to building a lasting legacy in Milwaukee. “I’m a low-profile guy,” he told Marc Stein of the New York Times in an early-November article. “I don’t like all these flashy cities like L.A. or Miami.” Obviously, circumstances and feelings can change between now and 2021. But the current devotion is a refreshing change from the modern landscape of NBA superstars.
Now, the Bucks just need to prove they can truly maximize his generational talent.
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Statistics are accurate as of all games headed into November 10, 2017. All non-cited statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com. All salary information is from RealGM.com.