How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
2. End-of-Bench Pieces
3. Depth Pieces
4. High-End Backups
5. Low-End Starters
6. Solid Starters
7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
8. All-Star Candidates
9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
10. Lesser MVP Candidates
11. MVP Frontrunners
12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Orlando Magic, who are still searching for shooting and the centerpiece of their ongoing rebuild.

16. Khem Birch: 1.25

• Age at start of 2017-18: 25
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.9 blocks (for Olympiacos)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

A bulked-up version of Khem Birch should be back with both new tricks and his old calling cards after spending time abroad and refining his game.

As Philip Rossman-Reich wrote for Orlando Magic Daily, “A lot of what Birch does on the floor is the versatile, switching defensive play that has become a calling card for bigs in the modern NBA. The 6-foot-9 power forward can switch onto guards and blow up pick and rolls while being able to chase guards for blocks and defend the post.”

Birch will have to do more than that in order to earn minutes with the Magic, though. He still doesn’t take three-pointers, but demonstrating some mid-range ability would be more than a bit beneficial.

15. Damjan Rudez: 1.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 31
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 1.8 points, 0.6 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, minus-29.76 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (Jordan McGillis)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Consider the Damjan Rudez re-signing an example of the Magic making a desperate play to try adding more shooting to their roster. Outside of his locker-room presence, the 31-year-old forward didn’t do anything possible during his previous go-round in Orlando. He was billed as a sharp-shooting, stretchy option who could play the 4 in small-ball lineups, but he clanged far too many shots off the rim.

The off-court chemistry and his willingness to sacrifice both playing time and touches certainly adds some value to this squad. But if he replicates his shooting numbers from 2016-17—35.2 percent from the field, 31.3 percent from three-point land and no free-throw attempts in 45 appearances—he won’t have any minutes to sacrifice.

Fun fact: Only Mike Miller (47) has appeared in more games during a single season without making even one trip to the stripe.

14. Wesley Iwundu: 1.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 13.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 141.03 TPA (for Kansas State Wildcats)
• Highest Grade: 3 (Louie Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Wesley Iwundu doesn’t have the shooting stroke necessary to become a three-and-D specialist now that he’s left Kansas State behind. The No. 33 pick of the 2017 NBA draft took only 2.4 triples per game as a senior and connected on 37.6 percent of those looks, but he was always hesitant to let fly from beyond the arc because it meant moving outside his comfort zone.

He could, however, become a two-way asset who specializes at driving to the hoop.

With his athleticism and ball-handling skills, he can penetrate into the teeth of a defense through traffic, and he can either finish the play himself or dish the rock to an awaiting teammate on the perimeter. Those skills should translate from Day 1, so long as defenses don’t immediately sag back and dare him to make plays on the outside.

13. Mario Hezonja: 2.56

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-112.29 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (Louie Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Mario Hezonja’s NBA career hasn’t exactly been the smoothest of rides thus far. His leaping ability and shooting stroke haven’t translated since he came across the pond, and he’s now coming off a sophomore season in which he slashed 35.5/29.9/80.0 in limited action. That success at the free-throw stripe offers hope he could get his scoring game going by establishing some sort of rhythm, but everything during live action has been beyond rough.

Health is necessary. Confidence is necessary. Repetition is necessary.

The 22-year-old still has the talent that made him the No. 5 pick of the 2015 NBA draft, but it’s troubling that he hasn’t been able to use his foot speed effectively on defense or knock down wide-open spot-up looks off the bench. Some switch just needs to flip before he can reasonably be viewed as anything more than a depth piece.

12. D.J. Augustin: 2.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 29
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 7.9 points, 1.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.4 steals, minus-130.26 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Disappointing as D.J. Augustin’s first season with the Magic may have been, the 29-year-old should be in for a bounce-back campaign—presumably why all but five of our 16 panelists viewed him as a legitimate depth piece. The speedy floor general might not have the same wheels he possessed while coming out of Texas, but he can still get to his spots in the half-court set and control a game from the point.

Now, the shooting just has to return. That’s a common refrain in Orlando these days, and the lack of spacing around Augustin allowed defenses to play him tighter and dare him to spend more time driving than he might have preferred.

He hit just 34.7 percent of his treys in 2016-17, which sits well below his career average and was a drastic downturn from his 40.5 percent clip one year earlier. Augustin is now in a battle for minutes behind Elfrid Payton, but remembering how to find nylon when stationed more than 23 feet from the basket would go a long way.

11. Shelvin Mack: 2.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 7.8 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-39.09 TPA (for Utah Jazz)
• Highest Grade: 4 (Tom Rende)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

If you’re asking Shelvin Mack to be a steady force for the second unit, you’ll be in luck.

This former Butler standout can contribute nicely on both ends of the floor, providing physical defense against opposing point guards and excelling when he’s using his 6’3″ frame to fight through screens or accept a challenge in the post. Offensively, he’s not much of a shooter but still makes a decent impact with his mid-range game and penchant for savvy decision-making in the pick-and-roll.

But if you’re asking Mack to look like a starter–or really anything more than a middling option at the 1—you’ll likely be disappointed. He may be solid across the board, but no category exists in which he has significant upside just waiting to be tapped into.

10. Arron Afflalo: 3.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 8.4 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-106.21 TPA (for Sacramento Kings)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Last time Arron Afflalo suited up for the Magic, he led the 2013-14 iteration in points per game. His 18.2 points outpaced Tobias Harris (14.6), Nikola Vucevic (14.2), Victor Oladipo (13.8), Jameer Nelson (12.1) and Glen Davis (12.1) for the score-by-committee squad. Obviously, plenty has changed since then.

Afflalo is now coming off a campaign in which he dropped more than 18 points only once for the Sacramento Kings—a 19-spot against the Denver Nuggets in early January. He’s not a well-rounded scorer, so much as an opportunistic contributor who can hit mid-range jumpers and take advantage from the post when a smaller defender gets switched onto him.

Magic supporters shouldn’t expect him to turn back the clocks. But that doesn’t mean they can’t get excited when he does something noteworthy off the pine.

9. Marreese Speights: 3.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 30
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 8.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.5 blocks, 18.02 TPA (for Los Angeles Clippers)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (Nick Birdsong)

Say it with me now: floor-spacing big.

Marreese Speights is a strong rebounding presence and has made some noticeable strides on the defensive end, but his value stems primarily from his ability to put the ball in the basket. Whether he’s hitting turnaround jumpers from the baseline or knocking down catch-and-shoot triples, he can drag bigger defenders away from the painted area to open up bigger driving lanes for his guards.

In the past, Speights provided spacing even without a working three-ball. Heading into his lone season with the Los Angeles Clippers, he was just 43-of-141 (30.5 percent) from downtown over the course of eight campaigns.

Last year alone, he went 103-of-277 (37.2 percent).

8. Jonathan Isaac: 3.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 20
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 12.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.5 blocks, 165.98 TPA (for Florida State Seminoles)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

“Unselfish and efficient, Isaac has played the right way all season, taking shots the defense gives him,” Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman wrote about Jonathan Isaac while the Florida State product’s freshman season was still in progress . “Rarely has he forced the issue. Extended minutes without a field-goal attempt haven’t tempted him to hunt. Isaac’s coaches have raved about his coachability and team-first approach, and he’s shown no signs of a motor that’s vulnerable to fading.”

Though he’s only 20 years old, Isaac should be able to contribute in a number of different ways for the Magic, whether he’s slotted at small forward or playing some small-ball 4. His three-point stroke might not be consistent quite yet, but that’s one of the few weaknesses in a package brimming over with energy and upside.

That said, Isaac is raw. He’s not going to compete for Rookie of the Year, and not a single one of our voters viewed him as a low-end starter during his inaugural campaign. Expect Orlando to bring him around patiently, letting him first make a defensive impact with his length and athleticism before tasking him with more offensive responsibility.

7. Bismack Biyombo: 3.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 25
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, minus-79.55 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (Nick Birdsong)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

The Magic basically never trusted Bismack Biyombo with the ball.

He averaged just 18.2 frontcourt touches per game in his 22.1 minutes of action, and he was rarely allowed to do anything once he gained possession. He gave it up or took a shot within 1.37 seconds while dribbling just 0.29 times per touch—the seventh-lowest rate among all players with at least 15 frontcourt touches per contest.  Of course, this shouldn’t be surprising to anyone who has watched the Congolese center play since he was drafted at No. 7 in 2011’s prospect pageant.

Defense makes him valuable, and he worked to shut down the interior yet again in 2016-17. That was just about all he added, though.

6. Jonathon Simmons: 4.19

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-51.9 TPA (for San Antonio Spurs)
• Highest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (Andrew Bailey)

Let’s turn it over to Sports Illustrated’s Rohan Nadkarni:

Simmons, 27, has flashed considerable ability in limited minutes in each of the last two seasons. He possesses a bounciness to his game, and his athleticism often stands out next to a group of mostly geriatric Spurs. Simmons best utilizes his quickness on the defensive end, where he’s proven he can capably hound the NBA’s elite scorers. Offensively, Simmons’s game is rough around the edges, but he makes up for his streaky shooting by finding lanes to the rim and running out for easy scores in transition. (And he can dunk the air out of the basketball.)

Jonathon Simmons is athletic enough to excel on defense and hound multiple positions, and his slashing is certainly beneficial on the other end. If he ever develops a jumper, the Magic will have landed quite the free-agency steal on a three-year deal worth only $20 million.

5. Terrence Ross: 4.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 11.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, minus-11.65 TPA (for Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic)
• Highest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (Louie Vicchiollo)

Eight of our 16 panelists pegged Terrence Ross as a low-level starter, and they’ll be validated if he can keep shooting the ball like he has for the last few years. His work after a midseason shift to Orlando was an aberration (34.1 percent from downtown), and the sample is far smaller than the one that led to a 38.4 percent clip over the three previous campaigns.

That said, the Magic used him differently. He was largely featured as a spot-up shooter and secondary pick-and-roll handler by the Toronto Raptors, but his new squad tried to get him the ball more frequently and let him attack from the interior. That freed him up to use his eye-popping athleticism, though he wasn’t quite used to the role. Now, it’s possible he could put all the tools together and experience a substantial breakout with the luxury of comfort with and experience in that new scheme.

Even if he doesn’t, Ross should, at worst, be a decent three-and-D option.

4. Elfrid Payton: 4.56

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 12.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks, 43.78 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Elfrid Payton’s lack of shooting acumen will always hold him back. He’s not even remotely threatening from the perimeter, which allows opponents to duck under screens in pick-and-roll sets, drop back into the painted area when he’s dribbling at the top of the key and gum up the Magic’s half-court offense.

And yet, the Louisiana Lafayette product still manages to chip in with more good than bad.

Living up to his collegiate reputation as a stingy defender, Payton has thrived navigating the PnR. He always makes the right decisions when greeted with a screen, and he has the physicality necessary to move through weaker picks and stick with his assignment before a teammate switches. Throw in his exemplary rebounding out of the backcourt, turnover-free passing and ever-growing knack for finishing plays around the hoop, and the 23-year-old is quickly becoming a two-way positive in spite of his putrid shooting.

3. Evan Fournier: 5.38

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 17.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-63.08 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (Nick Birdsong)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

Though Evan Fournier might not dominate in any particular offensive area, his versatility boosts him rather significantly. He’s a smart cutter who can finish plays around the hoop, a quality secondary ball-handler who can run the pick-and-roll, a capable spot-up shooter and so much more. No matter the situation he’s thrust into, he can find a way to put the ball in the basket.

But that doesn’t mean the Magic used him advantageously.

Though he can create for himself and run the PnR, he’s best when he’s not asked to be the No. 1 option on every possession. Surrounding him with floor-spacers who open the lane for easier drives—and those who can take some of the scoring pressure away—would allow him to grow even more consistent…and probably start playing better defense, as well.

Fortunately, Fournier is still only 24 years old. He has plenty of time to figure everything out alongside the Orlando coaching staff and front office, and it’s plenty encouraging that he’s already able to contribute in so many different ways.

2. Nikola Vucevic: 5.56

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 14.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks, 47.98 TPA
• Highest Grade: 8 (Nick Birdsong)
• Lowest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)

Always known for his offense, Nikola Vucevic morphed into a totally different player under head coach Frank Vogel’s supervision. His defensive intelligence shot through the roof, especially because the schemes allowed him to function like Orlando’s version of prime Brook Lopez—physically limited, but tasked with guarding a smaller area so that he could use his size and instincts advantageously without exposing his dearth of lateral mobility.

The Magic should feature a bit more spacing next year, which will help Vucevic operate from his pet areas. And though the NBA world now seems to be overlooking him, he could become a late-bloomer who adds significant value on both ends of the court if these defensive strides are legitimate.

As of now, we have no reason to think they wouldn’t be. That’s why not a single voter viewed this big man as anything less than a starter in 2017-18.

1. Aaron Gordon: 5.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, minus-27.81 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (Andrew Bailey)
• Lowest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)

If Aaron Gordon starts taking the right kind of shots, he could make the proverbial leap. And here’s where we’ll turn to Thomas Rende, who broke it down in a detailed piece on the young forward for NBA Math earlier this offseason:

Considering Gordon’s shot isn’t his strong suit, he’ll be forced to rely on pounding the ball into the restricted area until his game expands a bit. That’s something Gordon specifically mentioned he’s been working on this offseason in order to improve. Bumping up his attempts from three while ticking closer to average would be a huge boon to the Magic’s offense.

He could easily get to that level by simply cutting out the unnecessary pull-up shots. Of his looks from deep, 24 percent were of the pull-up variety. That may not sound like a lot, but for a shooter like Gordon who struggles to maintain consistency, it’s just nonsensical to even consider taking them. Shooting 23.5 percent on those attempts bogged down his overall efficiency, which could take a leap forward with more confidence and better selection.

The 22-year-old needs to be used the right way, as well.

The Magic tried experimenting with him at the 3 in last year’s crowded frontcourt, but that shift just took him away from his strengths. Let him use his athleticism and feast around the basket, and he may turn into the rim-wrecking, momentum-shifting player the organization hopes he can become.

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math and on Facebook.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo