How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
2. End-of-Bench Pieces
3. Depth Pieces
4. High-End Backups
5. Low-End Starters
6. Solid Starters
7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
8. All-Star Candidates
9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
10. Lesser MVP Candidates
11. MVP Frontrunners
12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Oklahoma City Thunder, who now have a second (and maybe third?) superstar to pair with the league’s reigning MVP.

16. Dakari Johnson: 1.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 18.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.3 blocks (for Oklahoma City Blue)
• Highest Grade: 3 (Louie Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Drafted out of Kentucky in the second round of the 2015 NBA draft, Dakari Johnson has yet to play even a single minute for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Instead, he’s consistently suited up for the G League affiliate, improving his game while racking up accolades (All-Rookie in 2015-16, then All-Star in 2016-17).

“There was nothing left for Dakari to prove in the D-League,” Tony Heim wrote for Thunderous Intentions after the Thunder signed this center to a contract. “But it’s still highly questionable whether or not the former Kentucky product can make it in the NBA. At 7-foot and 255 pounds, Johnson is the consummate big-bodied physical center. That prototype is becoming obsolete in today’s NBA.”

Developing a jumper could render any concerns null and void. But the more likely outcome sees Johnson continue proving himself as an end-of-bench player who fills a Steven Adams-esque role in fewer minutes.

15. Nick Collison: 1.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 36
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 1.7 points, 1.6 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.1 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-4.69 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

This 36-year-old power forward won’t contribute anything meaningful to the Thunder in 2017-18. He simply doesn’t have the mobility left in his aged frame, forcing him to rely almost solely upon quality positioning to play effective defense. Offensively, he’ll add even less now that the occasional mid-range jumper is all that’s working in his advantage.

But that’s fine.

Nick Collison is a Thunder lifer, planning to retire after this season having only played for a single organization. His leadership and locker-room presence can be quite beneficial to OKC, no matter how puny his per-game numbers may look throughout his swan song.

13(tie). Josh Huestis: 1.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 25
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 7.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, 4.42 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (Ryan Jarvis)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Josh Huestis has gotten by on his ridiculous athleticism and relentless hustle. He pushes himself and his indefatigable motor to exhibit constant effort on the defensive end, working to slow down players at multiple positions while rarely—if ever—taking a possession off. But that’s not enough for him to carve out minutes on the big-league roster. Not without a convincing outside shot.

This Stanford product won’t ever be a self-creating threat from the wings. But if he can become a spot-up option to space out the floor for Russell Westbrook’s drives, he might become a late-bloomer capable of getting off the bench more than he has in his first two professional seasons (a total of seven games and 86 minutes).

So far, so good. Huestis hit a career-high 38.5 percent of his triples in the G League last season while taking 5.7 attempts per game, and he backed that up in Orlando Summer League by connecting at a 42.9 percent clip in four outings.

13(tie). Semaj Christon: 1.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.9 points, 1.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-122.91 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (Louie Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Saying that Semaj Christon struggled as a rookie would be a significant understatement. He was overmatched in just about every way, whether looking at his shooting splits (34.5/19.0/54.8) or his woeful defense against opposing point guards. The former Xavier standout was obviously never going to keep the Thunder at a high level while replacing Russell Westbrook for short spurts, but helping his squad to a minus-6.5 net rating was still far from ideal.

Fortunately, he showed a few signs of growth.

Christon (6’6.5″ wingspan) has the size and athleticism necessary to play better defense once he adjusts to the professional style. And he was indeed better toward the end of the season, improving distinctly when working off the ball and away from the primary action. That alone should earn him another shot, though it’ll be an uphill battle for playing time with more guards added to the 2017-18 roster.

12. Kyle Singler: 2.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 29
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.8 points, 1.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-46.28 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Though Kyle Singler has become somewhat of a punchline, failing to recover after Stephen Curry put him in a primetime, record-breaking torture chamber during the Golden State Warriors’ incredible 2015-16 season, he’s still a useful presence on the Thunder bench. You don’t want him taking lots of shots. You don’t want him guarding point guards in isolation. You don’t want him serving as the last line of defense or operating as a primary facilitator.

Fortunately, not every player has to be a star—or even a starter, really.

Singler has the size necessary to hamper players at either forward position on the defensive end, and he isn’t an offensive liability when he’s hitting shots. He hasn’t over the last two years, failing to get enough run to build up any sort of rhythm, but we’re only a few seasons removed from a 2014-15 campaign in which he took three treys per game and hit 39.8 percent of those deep attempts for both the Thunder and Detroit Pistons.

11. Terrance Ferguson: 2.25

• Age at start of 2017-18: 19
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.6 points, 1.1 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.3 blocks (for Adelaide)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Especially given the pieces the Thunder have added this offseason, Terrance Ferguson isn’t ready to carve out a significant chunk of minutes. The raw 19-year-old needs to add strength before he can hold his own at the sport’s highest level, though with muscle should come a wing with tremendous shooting skills and the athleticism necessary to keep up with Russell Westbrook in transition.

Ferguson’s 2016-17 season with Adelaide in the Australian NBL spanned 30 games, and the 2-guard spent only 15.2 minutes per contest on the floor. That’s the explanation for the diminutive nature of his per-game statistics, but we can’t overlook how inefficiently he played, either. Shooting 38.1 percent from the field and a putrid 31.3 percent from beyond the arc simply won’t cut it, hinting that the transition to the NBA might be filled with more than a few speed bumps.

Don’t be surprised if Ferguson is ready to contribute in a meaningful way next year. But expect him to spend the majority of his rookie campaign in the G League, following the precedent this organization has set with other youngsters who aren’t quite ready for the big show.

10. Isaiah Canaan: 2.30

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.6 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, minus-41.13 TPA (for Chicago Bulls)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Expecting Isaiah Canaan to function as a lead ball-handler is asking for disaster. He’s far better suited filling an off-ball role next to bigger players who can set him up and allow him to catch fire beyond the arc. But since he’s only 6’0″, it’s not like he’s going to play anywhere but the point—doing so would make him even more of a defensive liability than he already is at the 1.

You wouldn’t know Canaan was a competent marksman if you only watched his brief tenure with the Chicago Bulls, in which he connected on just 36.4 percent of his field-goal attempts and 26.6 percent of his treys. The first number isn’t an aberration; Canaan has always struggled to finish plays in traffic and has issues converting even half of his tries at the rim. But the second one is.

While playing for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2015-16, Canaan hit 36.3 percent of his triples while taking 6.3 per game. The year before that, during which he split time between the Sixers and Houston Rockets, those numbers stood at 37.0 and 5.2, respectively. This 1-guard can shoot the rock, no matter what he did last year.

9. Raymond Felton: 2.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 33
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-30.63 TPA (for Los Angeles Clippers)
• Highest Grade: 4 (Ryan Jarvis)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Raymond Felton’s reputation may have plummeted in recent years, but his defensive ability still makes him a valuable backup. Ten of our 16 panelists viewed him as at least a depth piece, and he’ll prove them correct if he can continue using his strength to make up for his 6’1″ frame and guard both backcourt positions.

Playing for the Los Angeles Clippers last year, Felton didn’t show much lateral quickness. He did, however, hold his ground and refuse to cede space on the interior while capably fighting his way through screens away from the painted area. According to our Play-Type Profiles, he was one of only five players to save at least 20 points more than an average player would have with the same possessions in both spot-up situations and against pick-and-roll ball-handlers. The others? Kyle Anderson, Eric Gordon, Thabo Sefolosha and Jason Terry.

Felton won’t do much offensively unless he’s running the PnR himself. But so long as he keeps excelling as a stopper, any production on that more glamorous end would just be gravy for a Thunder roster with plenty of high-scoring presences.

8. Jerami Grant: 3.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 5.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.0 blocks, minus-65.51 TPA (for Philadelphia 76ers and Oklahoma City Thunder)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (Brian Sampson)

How many players in the NBA took at least one triple per game in 2016-17, connected on at least 37 percent of those deep attempts and still found time to reject no fewer than a shot per contest? Not many, right?  Well, Jerami Grant was one. Kevin Durant, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol and Serge Ibaka were the only other qualified members of the club.

This combo forward’s skill set is a unique one, featuring the skill necessary to launch up shots from the perimeter and the springy athleticism that helps him protect the rim. When he was stationed as the last line of defense for the Thunder, opponents only connected on 47.3 percent of their looks, making him more than just a shot-swatting option from the weak side.

Now that he’s showcased his versatile skills for a full season while staying in the same location, he should be in for an influx of added playing time. Keeping him on the bench for all but 19.1 minutes per game would be a mistake.

7. Alex Abrines: 3.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.0 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-55.89 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Alex Abrines struggled to create looks for himself and was out of his depth when attempting to finish plays around bigger players. Shooting just 48.8 percent from within three feet and 42.6 percent while inside the arc, he was a liability to the Thunder when he wasn’t sticking to his strengths.

Those strengths didn’t encompass defense, either. Abrines is an impressive athlete who can sometimes elevate like he’s bouncing off a trampoline, but he doesn’t have the physicality necessary to corral bigger players or the quick instincts to follow guards through screens and pick-and-roll sets. According to ESPN.com’s defensive real plus/minus, Abrines was such a negative as a rookie that he finished at No. 80 among the 93 qualified shooting guards.

And yet, he retained value because of his spot-up shooting. Russell Westbrook didn’t have many compelling kick-out options during his MVP season, but the Spanish 2-guard served as one of the few exceptions. He chipped in with 1.14 points per possession as a spot-up sniper, which left him in the 83rd percentile.

6. Patrick Patterson: 4.88

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 28.39 TPA (for Toronto Raptors)
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (Nick Birdsong)

Nothing about Patrick Patterson’s game is glamorous, but he’s always willing to do what’s needed. Whether he’s taking threes to space out the floor from the perimeter, asserting himself on the glass (to the best of his limited abilities), showing off his defensive foot speed by switching onto smaller players or doing things that don’t show up in the box score, he just helps his team win games.

Though the Toronto Raptors soured on Patterson, that was A) foolish and B) largely because they wanted another star to pair with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. This 28-year-old remained a terrific complementary role player, and his presence helped elevate Toronto’s net rating by a staggering 10.4 points per 100 possessions.

In fact, the power forward’s do-everything-well approach helped make him somewhat of an advanced-stats darling, since nearly every metric showed his value going far beyond his lackluster per-game figures. His distinctively positive TPA, for example, was validated by his positive scores on both ends in ESPN.com’s real plus/minus, and that shouldn’t change as he moves to a new team and fills a different role that likely sees him coming off the pine.

5. Andre Roberson: 5.63

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks, 0.0 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (Arjun Baradwaj)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

“Coaches have taught me whichever way you’re sliding you throw the hand that’s closest to them,” Andre Roberson told Vice Sports’ Michael Pina. “Because every second matters, every little contest matters, every percentage matters when it comes to winning games. It can always come down to a point or two.”

That’s the mentality of a true lock-down defender, and Roberson isn’t just giving lip service. A film junkie who obsessively studies opponents’ tendencies, the oversized shooting guard has morphed into—prepares to go out on a limb that’s actually far sturdier than many realize—arguably the league’s best perimeter defender. Given his long arms, the ability to absorb scouting reports and the physical capabilities to actually get in the way, no one is better equipped to match up against a matchup nightmare like James Harden.

Roberson is just as likely to brick a shot off the side of the backboard as he is to swish it through nylon. This sometimes feels true even when he’s lofting up attempts from the top of the key. But so long as he keeps shutting down opposing stars, his offense will be rendered nearly irrelevant—especially true with more dynamic options set to join him in 2017-18.

4. Steven Adams: 6.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 11.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks, 24.34 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)

This 7-footer is too strong to move when he establishes position on the interior—a statement that applies to both ends of the floor.

Steven Adams still isn’t much of a passer, averaging more turnovers than assists for the fourth time in four NBA seasons last year. His scoring game is slowly improving, but he’s not anywhere close to becoming a featured option on a team with so many high-quality point-producers. Instead, he’ll continue to stick to his break and butter: rebounding, interior defense, the occasional post-up score (though he still only finished in the 35.8 percentile for that play type) and plenty of rolls to the hoop in the PnR game.

Somewhat surprisingly, given his well-deserved reputation as a tough-nosed enforcer, this center from New Zealand isn’t much of a rim-protector. He’s instead at his best when he gets to show off his quick feet, dancing toward the perimeter to corral spot-up shooters while excelling in pick-and-roll coverage. Adams remains a deft defender, but his prowess just doesn’t come in the way you might initially expect.

3. Carmelo Anthony: 6.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 33
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 22.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, minus-35.53 TPA (for New York Knicks)
• Highest Grade: 8 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)

As Tony East explained for NBA Math, the world needs to prepare for a new version of Carmelo Anthony:

Only 10 percent of his looks last season were wide open, and he still dropped over 22 points per contest.

But this is a new Melo. This Melo has two teammates who were All-Stars last season. This Melo won’t have to create nearly as many shots for himself. And because of all that, this Melo is now more dangerous than any Melo we have seen before.

This Melo will have wide-open shots almost every game. The defense can’t zero in on him because Westbrook and Paul George require copious amounts of attention. That will leave Anthony with great looks night in and night out.

Anthony’s fit in the NBA’s current hierarchy of stars has been under constant scrutiny throughout the offseason, and the same uncertainty extended to our panelists. Two viewed him as a low-end starter in 2017-18. Another six had him pegged as a solid starter, while six more bumped him up to the high-end range. Two even graded him as an All-Star candidate.

Who’s correct will largely be determined by Anthony’s willingness to take on a tertiary role behind his new team’s two best players. He was a spot-up genius for the New York Knicks (1.23 points per possession left him in the 93.8 percentile), and sticking to that strength rather than probing a defense with near-constant jab-steps would allow him to remain a tremendous offensive weapon as he changes locations.

2. Paul George: 8.63

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 23.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 150.42 TPA (for Indiana Pacers)
• Highest Grade: 9 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 8 (multiple voters)

What happens now that Paul George no longer has to carry such a heavy load?

Even though he won’t have the ball in his hands nearly as frequently in Oklahoma City, the change should be a positive one for this tremendously versatile small forward. He’ll still get plenty of scoring opportunities both in off-the-dribble and spot-up situations, and he’ll once again be tasked with creating for his teammates in small doses. But freed from the responsibilities that come with serving as the perpetual No. 1 option, he should also be able to re-assert himself as an All-Defensive contender, as well.

George’s game should mesh perfectly with those of his new teammates, so long as he buys into the schemes and displays a willingness to serve as a two-way threat rather than a one-way specialist.

1. Russell Westbrook: 10.63

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 890.62 TPA
• Highest Grade: 11 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 10 (multiple voters)

Russell Westbrook probably isn’t going to average a triple-double now that his supporting cast has undergone so much drastic improvement. Probably. Maybe. We don’t want to sell this dynamic threat short, since he made a habit out of disproving nonbelievers during his run to MVP in 2016-17.

But even if he fails to average 10 rebounds (he’s less likely to maintain that per-game mark) or 10 assists (more likely to maintain), he’ll function as a primary candidate to hold onto the league’s premier individual award for one more season. Every single one of our 16 voters viewed Westbrook as at least a lesser MVP contender, and for good reason.

With Paul George and Carmelo Anthony taking on some scoring responsibilities, he should be able to use his remarkable athleticism to play better defense. And all the while, he’ll keep serving as a transition wrecking ball who can turn on the jets and get to the rim whenever he wants. Westbrook has a combination of speed and athleticism that goes just about unmatched throughout the landscape of professional basketball, and he’s now learned how to use it advantageously, both as a shooter and a distributor who can find open teammates when the opposition collapses around his relentless drives.

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math and on Facebook.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo