How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
2. End-of-Bench Pieces
3. Depth Pieces
4. High-End Backups
5. Low-End Starters
6. Solid Starters
7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
8. All-Star Candidates
9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
10. Lesser MVP Candidates
11. MVP Frontrunners
12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Minnesota Timberwolves, who are adding Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague, among others, to their promising core of young up-and-comers.

16. Amile Jefferson: 1.07

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.9 blocks, 183.38 TPA (for Duke Blue Devils)
• Highest Grade: 2 (Jordan McGillis)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

If defense wins championships—sidenote: It doesn’t—then Amile Jefferson will be all the more valuable at the next level.

The 24-year-old tweener was a glue guy for the Duke Blue Devils, willing to sacrifice his own personal productivity to do the little things that helped win games. When he wasn’t playing hard-nosed defense and taking on the toughest possible assignments, he was crashing the boards, setting brutal screens and passing to the open man. Matching up with power forwards might be a challenge, given his 6’9″ frame, but he has the quickness and dribbling skills to make bigger lineups pay when he’s on the floor.

Jefferson won’t fill a glamorous role or get minutes with the ‘Wolves—not right away, at least. But it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he found a way to make an impact for a G League affiliate and continued to improve his face-up game against the next level of competition.

15. Marcus Georges-Hunt: 1.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.8 points, 1.8 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.2 steals, minus-4.55 TPA (for Orlando Magic)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Marcus Georges-Hunt has a long way to go after earning his first opportunity in 2016-17 as an undrafted free agent, but he has to be pleased with his work in the G League. Not only did it earn him a pair of 10-day contracts with the Orlando Magic, but it showcased his developing game.

This 2-guard originally got a look because of his size (6’5″ with a 6’9″ wingspan) and potential impact on defense. Always active at Georgia Tech, he showed a knack for bouncing between assignments and recovering after gambling for steals. His shooting stroke also earned some praise, but his development into a strong facilitator was key. Not only did he shoot 39.2 percent from beyond the arc in 45 games for the Maine Red Claws, but he averaged 4.4 assists and only 2.0 turnovers.

If his game really is that well-rounded, he could emerge as a training-camp sleeper.

14. Melo Trimble: 1.38

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 16.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks, 93.75 TPA (for Maryland Terrapins)
• Highest Grade: 3 (Arjun Baradwaj)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

If the ‘Wolves need a change-of-pace guard with a nose for scoring the basketball, Melo Trimble could be in luck. They have few point guards on the roster with guaranteed contracts, so the door is open for him to show off the point-producing skills he put on display at Maryland.

Trimble isn’t a natural shooter. He knocked down only 31.7 percent of his treys as a junior with the Terrapins, and that was the second consecutive season in which he struggled from downtown after hitting at a 41.2 percent clip during his freshman go-round. But he’s tremendous inside the arc, able to use speed and touch to finish plays from mid-range zones and around the hoop, where he draws enough contact to make near-constant trips to the charity stripe.

Even in four summer-league outings, which typically see young guards produce depressed percentages, he slashed 57.1/55.6/60.0. It was only over the course of four games, and the second number is likely a fluke, but the first validated his ability to score against bigger, faster defenders while moving toward the hoop.

13. Justin Patton: 2.25

• Age at start of 2017-18: 20
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 12.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.4 blocks, 170.97 TPA (for Creighton Bluejays)
• Highest Grade: 4 (Dan Favale)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Ryan Jarvis)

Justin Patton is more upside play than established collegiate prospect.

The 20-year-old 7-footer desperately needs to add more strength to his frame while shoring up his rebounding fundamentals. But if he can do so, his work as a floor-spacer could allow him to serve as either an offensive spark off the bench or a key fixture in small-ball lineups. Patton plays with efficiency and thrives in transition, showing off the athleticism that allows so much potential to still remain untapped on both ends of the floor.

However, toot injuries have hampered him throughout the summer—concerning for any tower attempting to play professional basketball—and could delay his development. But keep faith in his eventual growth and hope Minnesota doesn’t rush him back onto the court, because he’s in possession of so much upside.  Hindering his growth due to a lack of patience and failure to treat injuries with caution would be the worst possible route.

12. Aaron Brooks: 2.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 5.0 points, 1.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-80.37 TPA (for Indiana Pacers)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

This veteran floor general no longer has the wheels he once possessed, which makes it even tougher for him to finish plays around the rim. He doesn’t have much size and is generously listed at 6’0″, so that extra half-second it takes before he can complete his driving attempt allows more defenders to contest his shots—hence his dramatic decline from 52.3 to 46.8 to 42.1 percent from inside three feet in the last three seasons.

Aaron Brooks doesn’t provide much on defense or as a distributor, so that number has to stop trending in the wrong direction for him to carve out a consistent role. His perimeter shooting simply isn’t enough, even if he’s capable of using his unorthodox delivery to catch fire off the bench and start spacing out the floor for his teammates. That’s an important role, given Minnesota’s roster construction, but it’s not worth the trouble if Brooks doesn’t begin to improve his glaring flaws.

11. Cole Aldrich: 2.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 1.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 6.28 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

When Cole Aldrich was stationed at the rim during his first season with the Timberwolves, he allowed opponents to shoot a whopping 62.4 percent on their field-goal attempts. That has to change, and quickly. This Kansas product remains a defensive/rebounding specialist who adds little on the offensive end, so serving as a capable interior presence is imperative.

Fortunately, he still managed to make a positive overall impact as a stopper.

His assignments rarely found success against him while posting up or functioning as a roll man in the PnR game, which helped make up for his porosity when serving as a help defender cleaning up behind a set of overmatched guard and wing defenders. If that latter part changes, he could look the part of a valuable backup center behind Karl-Anthony Towns.

10. Tyus Jones: 2.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 3.5 points, 1.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-28.98 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Tyus Jones’ per-game and per-minute  numbers may have stagnated between his first two years in the NBA, but he grew plenty more efficient. Shooting 5.5 percent better from the field, 5.4 percent better from downtown and 4.9 percent better at the stripe, he was a capable backup point guard who rarely tried to force the issue. Instead, he accepted his role as an offensive creator while trying to play better defense, making it far easier for his franchise to part with Kris Dunn this offseason.

The second role, though, didn’t often feature much success. Jones isn’t large enough or in possession of enough lateral quickness to stick with most NBA guards, so he’s left trying to make up for his physical deficits with quick hands and a fundamental understanding of positioning. That won’t change going forward.

But as a table-setter, he deserves nothing but praise. Jones’ passing proved he could reasonably be asked to play the part of backup 1 and create for his teammates, thanks to a careful eye and technical skill with the ball in his hands. Last season, he was the only qualified player to average at least seven assists and fewer than two turnovers per 36 minutes. Only 20 different men have ever hit those marks for a full season.

9. Nemanja Bjelica: 3.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 29
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-25.8 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (Adam Spinella)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (Louie Vicchiollo)

Especially after he connected on only 31.6 percent of his deep looks in 2016-17, Nemanja Bjelica shouldn’t be thought of as a stretch 4.

His game isn’t conducive to being pigeonholed into such a role, since he’s always been more comfortable with the ball in his hands. Not only is he adept at creating his own offense off the bounce and finishing in traffic around the rim, but he’s somewhat of a point forward. Let him look for cutters or distribute in the drive-and-kick game, and you’ll milk even more value out of his 6’10” frame.

Bjelica didn’t match his rookie impact as a sophomore, but that’s fine. He’s still only 29 years old and has time to bounce back, especially now that he’s playing for a second unit expected to keep the offensive production going when the superstars need some breathers. Having a secondary ball-handler alongside largely unproven—and post-prime—guards can be quite valuable.

8. Shabazz Muhammad: 3.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 9.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-134.45 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Take a gander at what NBA Math’s own Brian Sampson wrote for Dunking with Wolves after Minnesota re-signed Shabazz Muhammad:

He’s an inefficient scorer who can’t rebound, pass or play defense very well. Supporters will point to his 3-point percentage as proof he can help spread the floor. I kindly point them to the 0.1 attempts per game he took when a defender was within four feet of him last season. That reinforces what my eyes tell me, he has a slow release and isn’t able to get his shot off with a defender closing in on him.

That’s not to say he doesn’t have his strengths. For the veteran minimum, this is a great re-acquisition. He can slash to the floor and will likely play limited minutes for the team next season (more on that next question). He was undoubtedly one of the better remaining players on the market.

Nothing more really needs to be said. He’s a specialist in the truest sense—capable of sticking to his offensive strengths but a liability in most other facets of the game. It shouldn’t be surprising that he topped out as a high-end backup on just three of 16 ballots in this exercise.

7. Jamal Crawford: 3.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 37
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 12.3 points, 1.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-133.87 TPA (for Los Angeles Clippers)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

This version of Jamal Crawford is largely a replica of the ageless guard who’s contributed in the same vein for so many different teams over the years. His per-minute numbers are in line with what he’s always produced, and the same is true of his individual shooting percentages. But his overall efficiency levels have slipped a bit due to a lack of foul-drawing plays, and that slight discrepancy makes him a far less useful player.

Crawford still has a role on any competitive team. Those squads need players who can get buckets off the bench, and this 37-year-old remains one of the best ball-handlers in the NBA, capable of embarrassing defenders before pulling up for a jumper. That skill just comes with no defensive ability, the occasional unwillingness to involve teammates and limited work from beyond the arc.

Look, Crawford is one of the NBA’s nicest guys. He’s easy to root for. But that doesn’t mean his skill set fits perfectly with the ‘Wolves, unless they mean to use him when every single one of the starting studs needs to catch their breath on the pine. Otherwise, his propensity for shooting until he starts hitting—something that’s easy to forget when looking only at his ability to make difficult looks—just takes away from what his teammates can do.

6. Taj Gibson: 4.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.8 blocks, minus-83.54 TPA (for Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder)
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

A physical, devoted defender who already has experience in head coach Tom Thibodeau’s schemes from their mutual time with the Chicago Bulls, Taj Gibson should be able to fill an important role in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. He still isn’t much of an offensive presence and showed signs of wear and tear as a mid-range shooter during his age-31 campaign (split between the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder, for whom he really struggled to shoot), but his point-preventing instincts remain intact.

Gibson still has the 7’4″ wingspan that allows him to wreak havoc as both a shot-blocking threat and a jumper-into-the-passing lanes. But his athleticism is beginning to dry up, which makes it tougher for him to switch on screens and shut down perimeter players, as he so often did during his prime years with Chicago.

But even if his on-court efforts fade away and he fills a smaller role for the ‘Wolves, his veteran leadership and locker-room presence will be invaluable for a largely young collection of players looking to make the proverbial leap on the less glamorous side.

5. Gorgui Dieng: 5.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.2 blocks, 88.89 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (Adam Fromal)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

Gorgui Dieng’s game isn’t exactly eye-catching, but it’s quite valuable and makes him one of the NBA’s most underrated contributors. Just look at ESPN.com’s real plus/minus, which is so fond of the big man’s defense that it gives him the No. 8 finish among all 80 power forwards in spite of a slightly negative score on offense. If you don’t have a calculator on you or feel like doing mental math, that’s the 90th percentile.

And should the Senegalese frontcourt contributor remember how to finish around the rim more adeptly, he should resume functioning as a two-way asset. He’s sneakily one of the NBA’s best mid-range shooters, now coming off a year in which he hit 44.9 percent of his shots between 10 and 16 feet, as well as 43.4  percent of his even longer twos. Those numbers aren’t fluke, either. Not based on what he’s done throughout his career in Minnesota.

4. Jeff Teague: 5.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 29
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 15.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.4 blocks, 100.86 TPA (for Indiana Pacers)
• Highest Grade: 7 (Nick Birdsong)
• Lowest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)

Jeff Teague is not Ricky Rubio.

Minnesota is about to have an entirely different presence at the point, and the change could be a positive one. That’s not to say Teague is the better player (spoiler alert: Rubio will have a higher score when the Utah Jazz’s marks are displayed), but that his ability to contribute as both a scorer and distributor adds a new element to the offensive attack.

To be clear, this 29-year-old is a great facilitator, even if he’s not capable of matching his Spanish counterpart’s passing wizardry. Averaging 7.8 assists and just 2.6 turnovers, as he did last year for the Indiana Pacers, is far from shabby. But using his quickness and touch with floaters around the hoop, he can also keep foes off balance with the diversity of his attack.

3. Andrew Wiggins: 6.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 23.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks, minus-162.2 TPA
• Highest Grade: 8 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)

Andrew Wiggins is a conundrum.

The 22-year-old shooting guard is a fantastic scorer, capable of posting massive numbers in spite of tremendous defensive pressure. Whether he’s attacking from the outside with a finesse game or bursting to the hoop for finishes at the rim, he can put up some points. They just come without any contributions in other areas and while he posts a true shooting percentage (53.4) slightly below the league average (55.2).

That, along with porous defense (he’s fine in isolation, but his off-ball habits border on atrocious), is the explanation behind his glaringly negative finishes in TPA and ESPN.com’s RPM. The TPA score beat only three players throughout the entire Association, though that’s in large part because Wiggins logged so many minutes for the ‘Wolves—a league-high 3,048, in fact. His RPM sat at No. 262 among the 468 listed players.

Those numbers, devoid of context, sell him short.

Filling the role in which Minnesota has placed him is quite difficult, and his life will get easier now that the incumbent youngsters are growing and a new star is joining the party. Even though he could stand to be more efficient and thrive in other aspects of basketball, he’s one of the few players capable of shouldering such responsibilities and tallying so many points on any given night. Plus, a prospect this young and with this type of pedigree can be reasonably expected to take a massive leap now that the roster around him is more conducive to success.

Still, opinions vary. And they should. We don’t yet know if he can ever turn his massive scoring figures into a glaringly positive impact on his team’s fortunes, irrespective of how exciting his highlights may be.

2. Karl-Anthony Towns: 8.88

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 25.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks, 304.55 TPA
• Highest Grade: 10 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 8 (multiple voters)

Karl-Anthony Towns has officially arrived. Even though he remains a defensive liability who doesn’t yet show fundamental understanding of proper positioning and allowed opponents to shoot 52.2 percent while he was stationed at the rim, he’s become a true star. Not one of our voters viewed him as anything less than an All-Star candidate, while two thought he’d be a lesser MVP contender.

The Kentucky product still has untapped potential on the defensive end, and an increased focus there would benefit him greatly. But he’s already arrived as a game-changing offensive force who can contribute in every way imaginable. Just look at the numbers he produced after last year’s All-Star break: 28.4 points, 13.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game while shooting 59.7 percent from the field, 43.4 percent from downtown and 84.1 percent at the stripe.

Offensively, he can do anything. Whether he’s shooting threes, displaying dazzling post-up skills or rolling to the rim after setting a hard screen, he’s basically the perfect big-man scoring machine.

1. Jimmy Butler: 9.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 23.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.4 blocks, 384.82 TPA (for Chicago Bulls)
• Highest Grade: 10 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 8 (Adam Spinella)

Jimmy Butler’s 384.82 TPA—the highest mark earned last year by any current member of the ‘Wolves—is impressive enough. But how he arrived at that number is more impressive still, since NBA Math shows that he added 323.47 points on offense while saving 61.35 on defense (all compared to what an average player would do with his possessions).

Since 1973, only a few handfuls of players have reached those marks during the same season, and it’s worth listing out all 19: Bob Lanier, Charles Barkley, Chris Paul, Clyde Drexler, David Robinson, Dwyane Wade, James Harden, Butler, Julius Erving, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Larry Bird, LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Russell Westbrook and Shaquille O’Neal.

Butler is dancing around Hall of Famers, and a changing role as he transitions from the Windy City to Minnesota should only help. He’s now an established No. 1 option who can create for himself, work off the ball and facilitate for his teammates. But when he cedes some offensive responsibilities to Towns and Wiggins, he should also resume functioning like an All-Defense threat—something he simply didn’t have the energy to do while leading a Bulls offense that would be unbearable without him.

He’s now gone from No. 30 in the 2011 NBA draft to a top-10 threat in the entire Association.

 

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo