Carmelo Anthony + Paul George + Russell Westbrook = NBA League Pass Heaven
Pablo Prigioni. Raymond Felton. Chris Smith. Toure’ Murry. Langston Galloway. Shane Larkin. Jose Calderon. Jerian Grant. Derrick Rose. Chasson Randle. Brandon Jennings.
The directory above contains all the point guards Carmelo Anthony has played with during the last half-decade. Say whatever you want about the talents of anybody on that list, but none of their skills even come close to matching that of Russell Westbrook. And in order to unlock the best version of Anthony you can, a good shot-creating point guard is a necessity. Last year’s MVP and runner-up in total assists, Westbrook is arguably the best at doing just that.
Now, by pairing him with Melo, the Oklahoma City Thunder have created a monster.
When it was announced that Carmelo was waiving his no-trade clause to complete a move to Oklahoma City, this team immediately became one of the best in the league—and rightfully so. They added Melo, a guy who has averaged over 20 points per game every season since 2003. Two. Thousand. And. Three.
Tim Hardaway Jr.’s dad was still an NBA player at that time.
Melo’s dominance scoring the ball has spanned decades. Per our Play-Type Profiles, he ranked in the 76th percentile on isolation plays through each of the past two seasons. Given he was the focus of the defense every time the New York Knicks had control of the ball, the numbers don’t even do this justice. When the team cleared out to let him work in isolation, he would often draw two defenders, making his job much harder:
Yet he still scored better than three-quarters of the league in these situations, a testament to his ability to knock down shots no matter the coverage. Only 10 percent of his looks last season were wide open, and he still dropped over 22 points per contest.
But this is a new Melo. This Melo has two teammates who were All-Stars last season. This Melo won’t have to create nearly as many shots for himself. And because of all that, this Melo is now more dangerous than any Melo we have seen before.
This Melo will have wide-open shots almost every game. The defense can’t zero in on him because Westbrook and Paul George require copious amounts of attention. That will leave Anthony with great looks night in and night out. The Los Angeles Clippers do everything they can to stop Westbrook from getting to the rim here; they switch the screen and have a center waiting under the basket. It all comes to no avail as he uses his gravity on the floor to set up Alex Abrines for an uncontested three:
Anthony has never played beside a teammate who demands the attention Westbrook does. The same goes for George. This should allow him to really pander to his fortes.
Melo shot 48.5 percent on open catch-and-shoot threes last season, per Synergy, and he will have countless opportunities in that mold this year. It’s unfair how proficient he is with these looks:
Oklahoma City’s offense is now kind of like those choose-your-own-adventure books. Pretend you’re guarding Carmelo. Do you play help defense and stop Westbrook coming down the lane to prevent the layup, or do you stay glued to Melo and let the MVP get the easy bucket?
It doesn’t matter which page you choose. You lose either way. Per the aforementioned Play-Type Profiles, Anthony rated in the 93rd percentile on spot-ups for 2016-17, and Westbrook was second overall in assists. Finding a better match is nearly impossible.
And we haven’t even touched on Paul George.
Like Anthony in New York, George was the whole offense in Indiana. He had to handle the ball, score and create opportunities for his teammates. Often facing the opposing team’s best defender, George needed screens to get open lanes and move around the court. Thankfully, he is a master at navigating these situations and finished in the 90th percentile as the ball-handler coming off screens.
How does this help Anthony? Well, just watch this:
A double-screen frees up a drive opportunity for George. With him flying toward the basket, the defense shifts over to help, and he is able to get the ball out to the corner for a wide-open catch-and-shoot three-pointer.
WAIT: Didn’t we just talk about how good Anthony is at shooting that exact type of shot?
Yes. Yes, we did. Anthony thrives with other creation specialists on the wing. When he led the league in points per game during the 2012-13 season, he played alongside Jason Kidd. In 2006-07, when he finished second in scoring, behind only Kobe Bryant, his partner on the perimeter was none other than Allen Iverson.
George is a first-rate wing creator. In Westbrook-like fashion, he can collapse defenses and leverage kick-outs, just like in that above clip. Even further, teams will still probably put their best wing defender on George, leaving a weaker stopper on Anthony, making his life that much easier in isolation situations—and we already dived into how well he does on those plays. Anthony and George, much like Melo and Westbrook, have skills that almost perfectly complement one another.
Defense could be a different story. Anthony left a positive imprint in only four play types, per our Play-Type Profiles. His most significant contributions came versus isolations:
Despite this, he cost the Knicks more than 110 points on the less glamorous end, according to our defensive points saved metric. That figure landed him 473rd in the league, pretty close to the absolute bottom.
Fortunately for him, though, the Thunder can still hang their hat on some defensive niceties after the trade. For starters, they’re essentially getting addition by subtraction. They acquired Melo, who ranked poorly in DPS, but sent away Doug McDermott and Enes Kanter, who sat at 448th and 438th, respectively. Trading two bad defenders for one could help improve OKC’s defense by virtue of opening more minutes for lesser liabilities (Alex Abrines) or more talented incumbents (Jerami Grant).
A second reason the Thunder won’t be too worried about Melo’s defensive shortcomings: Most of their remaining components can defend abnormally well. Steven Adams, Andre Roberson and George are highly touted defensive specialists who all rated favorably in DPS. They should help Melo look sharper just by being on the court and letting him chase around the weakest links.
One final thought when judging Anthony’s fit in OKC: FIBA Melo might possibly rise again.
During the 2016 Olympics, he was second on the team in scoring and shot 40 percent from three-point range. Additionally, during the Rio games, he was fourth on team USA in total assists, showing his willingness to be a team player when surrounded by talent. Are the Oklahoma City Thunder the equivalent of Team USA? No, but having two other Olympians on his team is closer than anything Melo has enjoyed in the recent past.
Or…ever.
Concerns with the roster do exist. Melo, George, and Russ are all ball-dominant players, so the obvious fact remains: Games are played with only one ball. The Thunder, as a team, took 7,169 shots last season. Their three stars jacked 4,678 between them—or 65 percent of the squad’s overall looks, leaving 35 percent for the other 12 players. Nobody will be thrilled about that, so one member of the Big Three will need to accept a role change—particularly during crunch time, when they’re all accustomed to being the go-to option.
Hence the biggest question at hand: Is Melo willing to accept the catch-and-shoot role that has been described? Whether or not he actually does remains to be seen. He is probably going to be the third option, at best, in the offensive pecking order. Among the Big Three, he is the most likely to lose touches. As a 10-time All-Star, a six-time All-NBA player and, most importantly, a man with pride, can he table his ego for the sake of team he only just joined? Since he had to approve the trade himself, the only logical answer is yes—or so the Thunder hope.
By the time you’re reading this, Sam Presti may have traded for another star. The Thunder’s offseason has been that wildly, and categorically, and pleasantly, unpredictable. More seriously, they’re now a team full of exceptional players who seem to fit together almost perfectly. With all the spacing and help he’ll be afforded in Oklahoma City, Anthony should go back to dominating opponents again.
So add the Thunder to your regular League Pass lineup this season. You’ll be glad you did.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com.