Can Dennis Schroder Become the Face of the Atlanta Hawks?
The German-born NBA player pool is relatively small, consisting of only three players from 2016-17. Telling you last season’s leader among that group shot 45.6 percent from 16 feet to the three-point arc doesn’t mean all that much.
That’s right, Dirk Nowitz… wait, Dennis Schroder? Over Dirk?
That’s right. The Atlanta Hawks guard paced the German-born group in mid-range shooting last year. Hawks gurus know the kind of impact Schroder had on the team last season, but this stat may come as a surprise if you didn’t watch the team much. In fact, the young guard did a lot of surprising things in Atlanta last season.
Schroder led the Hawks in usage in 2016-17 at 27.8 percent. In an offense where Paul Millsap was the primary creator, Schroder had the ball in his hands on a higher percentage of possessions , showing the trust head coach Mike Budenholzer has in the developing point guard. Now, with the team transitioning into a rebuilding phase, that trust will be more important than ever, as Schroder has the opportunity to be the face of the franchise with a young and growing roster.
With his blistering speed, he invents opportunities for himself and others by making defenders look lethargic and reluctant. Below, Brandon Jennings is nimble, but Schroder torches him on his way to the rim and draws the help from Kristaps Porzingis. This leaves Millsap wide open, and German Lightning (NBA Math nickname™) gets him the ball for an easy dunk:
Jennings isn’t the best defender, but Schroder had a full step on him halfway through his drive—an impressive feat, regardless of the matchup.
That speed made German Lightning effective in pick-and-rolls. Per our Play-Type Profiles, Schroder graded in the 65.4 percentile as the ball-handler on such plays, which isn’t an elite level, but remains positive for a young point guard in his first season as a starter. He combines his agility and his PnR navigation here, using the screen to beat his matchup and blowing by the defense that came to help on the switch:
That burst he displays at the elbow leaves Soloman Hill in the dust.
He has to converge on Schroder and contest the attempt at the rim while simultaneously avoiding fouling. The Hawks point guard shot 85.5 percent from the charity stripe last season, meaning fouling him was not an option unless you wanted to concede two points.
For all Schroder’s added value on the ball, both creating and scoring, he arguably excels more offensively without the ball. Per our Play-Type Profiles, he ranked in the 93.2 percentile in spot-up situations last season, meaning only about 30 players were better in such scenarios.
He often uses his gravity as a speedster to get an open spot-up look. He flies into the lane here and forces Matthew Dellavedova to back off, then jolts back behind the three-point line for a spot-up trey:
All the cutting and movement off the ball really comes to light when looking at the advanced metrics. In catch-and-shoot situations, Schroder had an effective field-goal percentage of 59.8. On pull-ups? 41.3 percent, a massive abatement upon his off-ball shooting.
Without context, these numbers mean little beyond “he shot significantly better when the ball was passed to him.” Millsap, the Hawks’ previous face of the franchise, often captured two defenders when he had the rock on offense. This provided liberty for other players to attack the open space and get set up for easy looks. Now, Millsap is on to Denver, and the Hawks won’t have that luxury, which will likely affect the quantity and quality of looks Schroder gets spotting up.
With the ball, Schroder is clearly good. But off the ball, he was exceptional. Now devoid of a setup man, can he take his game to another level and replace Millsap as the face of the Atlanta franchise?
That depends on what you consider a face of the franchise.
If you consider that the best player within a given organization, sure, Dennis the Menace may qualify. But I subscribe to an entirely different meaning that leads to the following question: Can Dennis Schroder be the best player on a championship contender?
That changes the scope of the discussion. A player of that caliber has few glaring flaws. Schroder, however, has many. Defensively, he ranked in the 62nd percentile or worse in every defensive play type outside of isolation. Put more plainly, if the opposing team ran any sort of action going at Schroder, he was ineffective.
This simple screen action by the Indiana Pacers is a nice demonstration of why teams targeted this 1-guard. He takes one step over the screen before giving up on the play and putting up a pathetic (and, honestly, kind of hilarious) contest of the shot:
Unless Jeff Teague was about to turn around and shoot a full-court shot on the opposite basket, I’m not sure Schroder’s hands were going to stop him on that play.
If he’s to be the face of the franchise, he can’t give up on screens—or any action, for that matter.
He also needs to improve as a caretaker of the basketball. For his career, German Lightning has posted a turnover percentage slightly over 17 percent, meaning he turns the ball over a shade less than once every five plays where he controls possession.
That’s atrocious, especially for a high-usage guy like himself.
Sometimes, his ferocious speed gets the best of him. With no plan, he flies down the lane and leaps toward the basket for a layup. He has little occasion to slow down and control himself, so he is forced to make a nearly impossible pass and turns it over:
The turnovers are damning, but perhaps the most glaring stat about Schroder last year was that over the course of the whole season, the Hawks were outscored by 83 points when he was on the court—slightly over a point per game. How can he be the face of the franchise if he doesn’t contribute to winning basketball?
He needs to make leaps and bounds of improvement if he is going to become an effective player going forward. His pre- and post-All-Star game numbers from last year tell the story of a player who did not make much in-season advancement in his skills or impact. An increase in offensive impact going forward is paramount, as his offensive rating was only 103, good for 320th in the league last year.
Maybe I’m being too critical of the German floor general; after all, he’s only been a starter for one NBA season. Heading into his age 24 campaign, Schroder still has the opportunity for improvement. With a dearth of talent surrounding him this upcoming year, he will have every chance to handle the ball and create for his teammates.
If he can handle that role and take a few steps forward on the defensive end, Schroder will leave no doubt he’s a leader on his team. However, can he ever become the face of the Atlanta Hawks franchise, a guy who can shut down the opposing team’s point guard, score, take care of the ball and lead a top-five offense in order to boost his team to the conference finals and beyond?
Based on what we’ve seen thus far, my answer is no.
Editor’s Note: This piece was written prior to news that Dennis Schroder was charged with misdemeanor battery in Atlanta. Off-court issues could render his on-court performances irrelevant, but we’re focusing on his play throughout this article.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com.