Buckets with Brock: Early NBA Power Rankings, Games to Watch and More

by Michael Brock in Team Breakdowns

Welcome to Buckets with Brock, where NBA analysis will be delivered each week of the 2017-18 season. There will be power rankings. There will be top highlights. One-on-one matchups. Wacky stats. Whether you took the week off from the NBA or watched every game, Buckets with Brock has something for you.

For our inaugural edition, we’ll take a look at early power rankings, storylines and games to watch during Week 1, in addition to one “Say whaaat?” stat .

Power Rankings

Over the summer, NBA Math unveiled its #CrystalBasketball rankings, which gives every player a “grade” based entirely on how they will perform during the 2017-18 season. Sixteen NBA Math staff members and contributors ranked players on the following 1-to-12 scale:

  1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
  2. End-of-Bench Pieces
  3. Depth Pieces
  4. High-End Backups
  5. Low-End Starters
  6. Solid Starters
  7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
  8. All-Star Candidates
  9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
  10. Lesser MVP Candidates
  11. MVP Frontrunners
  12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Once all the players had an average grade, the hierarchy of each team was determined. Rankings were released team-by-team throughout the past couple months, while the overall player rankings came later and can be found here.

We used these results to come up with an objective pecking order for all 30 teams. The process was as follows:

  1. Find the average of all teams’ top five players.
  2. Find the average of all teams’ top 12 players.
  3. Calculate Z scores for each.
  4. Double the top-five Z score and add it to the top-12 Z score (since, theoretically, a team’s top five is twice as important as the overall depth).

For our purposes, we will use these final scores as the initial power rankings entering 2017-18. It should be noted, however, these rankings don’t account for coaching, chemistry, continuity or any other “c” word synonymous with basketball harmony.

So, without further ado, take it away, Steve Kerr.

1. Golden State Warriors

That’s right. Steve Kerr, head coach of the world champion Golden State Warriors said that his point guard, Stephen Curry, is at his absolute peak right now. Even better than last year, and better than his unanimous MVP campaign in 2015-16. Lest we forget, Curry is still the top point guard in the NBA and is only one season removed from averaging 30.1 points, 6.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds while slashing 50.4/45.4/90.8. And Kerr said he’s better than that.

So yes, if one player can “[put] the fear of God into defenses”, it’s Curry.

Remember: In addition to the uber-talented point guard, this team has former MVP Kevin Durant, along with Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. When you get to quarrel over whether your third-best player is Green or Thompson, you’re going to win a lot of games. In our #CrystalBasketball rankings, the Warriors sport the Nos. 2 (Durant), 5 (Curry), 12 (Green) and 25 (Thompson) best players—the only team to have four members in the top 25. In fact, they’re the only squad to have four players in the top 50.

On top of that, the Dubs still have Andre Iguodala, Zaza Pachulia, David West and Patrick McCaw. For good measure, they bought rookie Jordan Bell from the Chicago Bulls on draft night and acquired Nick Young and Omri Casspi in free agency.

Young and Casspi have *started* for teams in recent seasons. They’re the ninth and 10th guys on the Warriors. That’s some depth.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James’ team will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals until he determines otherwise. Swarms of drama are also a given of any LeBron-led squad, and this summer was no different.

First, the Cleveland Cavaliers signed Jose Calderon in the opening breaths of free agency. Then, in the midst of trying to trade for some combination of Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Carmelo Anthony, owner Dan Gilbert decided not to bring back general manager David Griffin and let Chauncey Billups take forever to decide against joining the front office.

Koby Altman was eventually brought on as GM, but George, Butler and Anthony were all traded elsewhere. About a month after the draft, Kyrie Irving requested a trade, citing frustration with trade rumors in recent months.

Not all is bad, though. The Cavs snagged a good return on the Irving deal with the Boston Celtics, adding Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic and the Brooklyn Nets’ 2018 first-round pick. They also signed Derrick Rose, Jeff Green and Dwyane Wade. Cleveland is hopeful Thomas will be back around January, but until then, head coach Tyronn Lue confirmed that Rose will start alongside Wade, with J.R. Smith coming off the bench.

This latest version of the Cavs is in a weird spot. It still has the best player according to our rankings in James, along with the 17th (Thomas) and 33rd (Love) talents. It should win a ton of games in the regular season and be mostly entertaining to watch. But its No. 2 and No. 3 options are liabilities when it matters.

Thomas is coming off one of the most efficient offensive seasons in NBA history and led the Boston Celtics to the Eastern Conference Finals. He is a dynamic scorer capable of detonating for 40 points on any given night. But he’s 5’9″, and that can’t be ignored.

In the event of another last-round clash with the Warriors, do you stick him on Curry and make him run around countless screens? Or have him guard Thompson, who will just shoot over the top of him? Good luck with either path.

The best option might be putting Thomas on Iguodala, but that still leaves Love to guard one of the bruising bigs. When the Warriors play the Cavs, one of two things are bound to happen: 1) Curry and Durant will make Love switch and guard them in the pick-and-roll and 2) Green will annihilate Love in the post.

Love will have a monster season. But until he can hold his own a bit more defensively, he’ll be a liability against the Warriors—or, in the event of an upset, the Houston Rockets.

3. Houston Rockets

General manager Daryl Morey is the king of flipping assets. A few years ago, the Rockets combined pieces to trade for James Harden, and now they’ve paired him with Paul—the nine-time All Star—by doing the same. To acquire Paul, the franchise sent out Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Decker, Kyle Wiltjer, DeAndre Liggins and Darrun Hilliard, along with a 2018 first-round pick, but the “Point God” will be well worth the damage.

As Morey knows, competing for championships is difficult without multiple top-tier talents. The duo of Harden and Paul are Nos. 4 and 11, respectively, in our rankings. They may take some time to jell, but they’ll ultimately be among the best backcourt combinations in recent memory. The only question remains whether or not the pair will average over 10 assists apiece.

Throughout the NBA, Harden added the most value as a PnR handler in 2016-17 (via our Play-Type Profiles), tallying 148.4 more points than an average player would with his volume. Paul was 14th in the same category, adding 49.9 more points than league average.

P.J. Tucker, Luc Mbah a Moute and Tarik Black were also brought aboard in various summer moves, leaving the team with a rotation of Paul, Harden, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, Tucker, Mbah a Moute, Nene and Black. That will be among the most adaptable in the NBA. A season ago, the Rockets had one of the best offenses in league history; with Paul in tow, they should only be more prolific, taking and making a countless number of threes each game.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder and general manager Sam Presti had the best offseason of any team; they effectively flipped Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott and a second-round pick for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. Veterans Patrick Patterson and Raymond Felton were added in free agency, while Taj Gibson and Norris Cole are gone.

According to our #CrystalBasketball rankings, the Thunder now have the Nos. 6 (Russell Westbrook), 18 (George) and 46 (Anthony) players in the league.

Westbrook, the reigning MVP, set an NBA record last season with a usage rate of 41.7 percent, but having a couple more All-Stars by his side should allow him to  dial it back a bit and hopefully be more efficient. The Thunder finished 18th in three-point attempts last year (25.8 per contest), while shooting the league’s worst percentage (32.7 percent).

During the preseason, they showed that sometimes it’s important to launch threes first, then worry about the makes later. They jacked the ninth most (31.0 attempts), while converting on the 20th-best percentage (35.5 percent) through three exhibition games.

Last season, George was fourth with 7.4 catch-and-shoot points per contest while posting a blistering 60.1 effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) on such shots. Anthony, meanwhile, finished 18th at 6.3 catch-and-shoot points per game, with an eFG% of 58.6.

The new duo’s proficiency from beyond the arc already seems to be having an effect on their Thunder buddies:

5. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves should have one goal for 2017-18: end the team’s 13-year playoff drought.

Coach and president Tom Thibodeau made a few moves over the summer to ensure that would be the case. On draft night, the ‘Wolves sent Zach Lavine, Kris Dunn and the No. 7 overall pick (Lauri Markkanen) to the Chicago Bulls for three-time All Star forward Jimmy Butler and the No. 16 pick (Justin Patton). Then, on June 30th, they traded point guard Ricky Rubio to the Utah Jazz for a protected future first-round pick. On July 10th, point guard Jeff Teague and forward Taj Gibson agreed to multi-year deals. Along with those three additions, the T-Wolves sport a young duo in Karl Anthony-Towns and Andrew Wiggins, who each averaged over 18 points per game last season.

It’s clear they have one of the better cores in the league, flaunting the Nos. 9 (Butler), 14 (Towns) and 45 (Wiggins) players in our rankings.

Now they need to take a leap as a team.

Butler’s presence should allow the newly maxed-out Wiggins to be more efficient on offense, since he won’t have to shoulder as much of a burden. Pick-and-roll chemistry between Teague and Towns is another thing to watch. The former has been one of the most effective point guards in the play type in recent seasons, averaging no fewer than 5.9 assists in the past five years, while the latter is near the top in efficiency as the roll man:

Here’s how the rest of the power rankings shake out ahead of opening night, as determined by our #CrystalBasketball returns:

6. Denver Nuggets
7.  Washington Wizards
8.   San Antonio Spurs
9.  Boston Celtics
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. Los Angeles Clippers
12. New Orleans Pelicans
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Utah Jazz
15. Toronto Raptors
16. Miami Heat
17. Portland Trail Blazers
18. Charlotte Hornets
19. Detroit Pistons
20. Memphis Grizzlies
21. Los Angeles Lakers
22. Dallas Mavericks
23. Phoenix Suns
24. Orlando Magic
25. New York Knicks
26. Indiana Pacers
27. Sacramento Kings
28. Brooklyn Nets
29. Atlanta Hawks
30. Chicago Bulls

Week 1 Games to Watch

During each week of the 2017-18 season, I will pick the five most intriguing games to watch, in addition to picking against the spread. This week, I will spotlight six games, but predict only five for our record-keeping.

Tuesday Oct. 17

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET, TNT

The Cavaliers host the Celtics on opening night in a rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals and a matchup between the No. 9 and No. 2 teams in our rankings. Both squads look drastically different; as previously mentioned, Irving is now a Celtic, while Thomas, Crowder and Zizic are on the Cavs.

The Celtics, in fact, only have four players back from last year’s squad (Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier). They also traded Avery Bradley for Marcus Morris, drafted Jayson Tatum and added Gordon Hayward and Aron Baynes in free agency.

Irving has already taken a couple shots at the city of Cleveland, so the drama in this one should be top-notch.

The spread: Cavs by 3.5 points.

Prediction: There have been rumblings that James will miss opening night with a sore ankle, but I can’t imagine a scenario in which he misses this one. I think both Irving and James will go off—potentially upwards of 40 points—but the Cavs will ultimately win, and by more than 3.5 points.

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors (-9.5), 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

The Warriors and Rockets also play Tuesday evening in a matchup of our No. 1 and No. 3 squads . The new-look Rockets bring a versatile core, making them one of the few that could challenge the reigning champions. And while I’m nowhere near ready to say they’ll overtake the Dubs, no team is better equipped to do so.

The spread: Warriors by 9.5 points.

Prediction: Something must be said about Golden State’s dominance. Even with the additions Houston made, the Warriors are still nearly double-digit favorites on opening night. I guess it’s good to be the reigning champs—not to mention one of the greatest teams ever assembled. But the Rockets will make the contest competitive. They added Paul on offense, along with complementary defensive pieces who should match up well with the champs. The Warriors will still win, but Houston will keep it close. God, I hope they keep it close.

Wednesday, Oct. 18

Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards (EVEN), 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Washington Wizards lost a heartbreaking Game 7 to the Boston Celtics in the second round of the playoffs. Now, they bring back essentially the same team after signing John Wall and Otto Porter Jr. to max deals. They also traded for backup point guard Tim Frazier and added Jodie Meeks and Donald Sloan to their bench. With a rotation that includes Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat, they’ll look to stay near the top of the Eastern conference.

The Philadelphia 76ers, on the other hand, will try to break a five-year playoff drought.

After sitting out his first two seasons due to injuries, Joel Embiid made his NBA debut by logging 31 games in 2016-17. He was eventually ruled out with a torn left meniscus, but not before putting up 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 block per game on 46.6/36.7/78.3 shooting splits in just 25.4 minutes per contest. At 7’0″, he is one of the most exciting talents the league has to offer.

Ben Simmons will make his debut after missing last year with a broken foot, and the team traded for the first overall pick to select University of Washington’s Markelle Fultz. Embiid and Simmons have both shined in limited preseason action, while Fultz has taken a few games to find his footing.

In addition to the young guns, the Sixers added veterans J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson in free agency. If all goes according to plan, they’ll find themselves in the thick of the East’s playoff race.

The spread: Even.

Prediction: The Sixers have a fun, up-and-coming core of young guns ready to take the league by storm.  But the Wizards are about that life; they’ve been here before. John Wall will put up a colossal stat line, and his team will come out victorious.

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz (EVEN), 10 p.m. ET

For a team that missed the playoffs, a No. 6 ranking may seem surprising. But make no mistake: the Denver Nuggets are legit. And it all starts with Nikola Jokic, the No. 14 talent in #CrystalBasketball. The Serbian big man put up 16.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists with a 60.5 percent eFG% in just his second NBA season. And in the 51 games he started, the Nuggets posted the top-ranked offense (as well as the worst defense).

The team added defensive stalwart Paul Millsap via free agency to help on that end. There will be some growing pains, but ultimately, the big-man duo will prove to complement each other well. Add in fourth-year guard Gary Harris, and the Nuggets sport three of the league’s top 50 players. They also have Jamal Murray, Wilson Chandler, Will Barton, Mason Plumlee, Kenneth Faried, Emmanuel Mudiay, Richard Jefferson and Malik Beasley.

As previously mentioned, the Jazz lost Hayward to free agency, and George Hill left as well. But they acquired Rubio via trade, drafted Donovan Mitchell and added Jonas Jerebko and Thabo Sefolosha on team-friendly deals. Rubio and Rudy Gobert will form a deadly pick-and-roll duo, and with Joe Ingles, Joe Johnson and Derrick Favors aboard, the Jazz should be right there fighting for a playoff spot out West.

The spread: Even.

Prediction: Both these teams added new talent to their rosters, but the Jazz will have more of an adjustment period than the Nuggets. Yes, Millsap and Jokic play similar spots on the floor, but the defensive presence the former brings has been evident right away. Rubio’s addition will do wonders for the team’s offensive production, however the Nuggets will win this game.

Thursday, Oct. 19

New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder (EVEN), 9 p.m. ET, TNT

I promise I won’t spend much time on this lackluster matchup, but whoever made the NBA schedule deserves a raise.

Not only do we get Irving vs. James with the Cavs-Celtics game, but Anthony will face off against his former team to open the year. What a time to be alive.

Spread: Even

Prediction: I won’t be officially forecasting this game, to keep with the standard five games each week. I will say, however, the game should not be a pick ’em, and I’d be quite surprised if the Knicks are competitive in this one.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers (EVEN), 11:30 p.m. ET, TNT

The Los Angeles Clippers may have lost Paul, but they gained some much-needed depth that has been lacking in recent seasons. With a rotation of Beverley, Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Milos Teodosic, Austin Rivers, Decker and Harrell, they will be an intriguing team to watch in the back half of the Western Conference playoff race.

The Los Angeles Lakers, on the other hand, are not expected to vie for a playoff spot, but they at least promise to be more exciting. They traded D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov to the Brooklyn Nets for Brook Lopez. They also added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Andrew Bogut in free agency, while drafting Lonzo Ball and diamond-in-the-rough Kyle Kuzma. With president of basketball operations Magic Johnson at the helm, things are finally looking up in Laker Land.

The spread: Even.

Prediction: The fun factor may be up with the Lake Show, but they still are young and unpolished. The Clippers have a decent core, and even if Gallinari and Griffin’s games don’t mesh that well, they have enough talent on both sides of the ball to beat the Lakers on opening night. Plus, if nothing else, the Clips have Teodosic, who is quickly becoming your favorite player’s favorite player: 

One Wacky Stat: 123

One hundred and twenty-three. That’s the number of minutes the Celtics’ returning players (Horford, Smart, Brown and Rozier) all spent together on the court in 2016-17, according to nbawowy. In other words, the team’s holdovers have played a little over two games with one another.

Yes, Boston has a talented roster, but it may take some time for all the new pieces to coalesce into something special.

Follow Michael on Twitter @mbrock03

Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math and on Facebook.

Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics via NBA Math, Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.

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