Adding Paul Millsap Moves Denver Nuggets into Western Conference’s 2nd Tier
Things are looking up in the Mile High City.
After going 40-42 and missing the Western Conference playoffs by a single game, the Denver Nuggets added prized free agent Paul Millsap to the mix. The team utilized a three-team trade with the Los Angeles Clippers and Atlanta Hawks to get the deal done, essentially swapping out Danilo Gallinari for the 11-year veteran. Such an addition isn’t quite enough to make a real ripple in the Western Conference, as the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are still the cream of the crop.
But for Denver, the move is of paramount importance and firmly places it in the conference’s second tier.
Along with the Nuggets, the Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks will be vying for the final four postseason seats. Four of those franchises won’t punch their ticket, yet with Millsap in tow, Denver fans should start clearing their mid-April schedules.
2016-17 Stats
If you only watched the Nuggets on the attack last year, you’d think they were in contention for a conference finals berth as the offense ranked third in points scored, fifth in effective field-goal percentage (eFG%), second in assists per game and fifth in offensive rating throughout the season. They had a legitimate inside-out attack, both making a large quantity of threes and rating second in points in the paint.
The team’s offense was among the most balanced in the league, boasting six players in double-figure scoring and four others with at least nine points per game.
Gary Harris was a focal point of the outside barrage, as he posted career highs in points (14.9), assists (2.9), rebounds (3.1) and three-point percentage (42.0) on 4.5 tries per game. The Michigan State alum tallied 5.2 points per game on catch-and-shoot opportunities (68.1 eFG%) and 97.2 percent of his threes were assisted.
Wilson Chandler, meanwhile, (15.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 52.0 eFG%) is essentially Paul Millsap lite—a versatile offensive threat capable of defending in multiple situations. He has the rare capacity to not only play the part of screener in pick-and-roll schemes, but also control the ball in such situations. The DePaul product ranked in the 96.2 percentile as the PnR ball-handler, scoring 1.09 points per possession:
The Nuggets dealt with injuries throughout; six rotations players missed at least 19 games.
While Gallinari and Harris missed stretches, Will Barton functioned as a major beneficiary. The Memphis standout started just 19 games, but he put up averages of 16.6 points, 3.3 assists and 5.2 boards on 44.3 percent shooting from deep when he did. Barton boasts a multi-faceted attack on offense, equipped not only to handle the rock and score from all three stages, but the athleticism to finish with flair.
However, when tasked with stymieing the attack, Denver offered little resistance, giving up 111.2 points per game and rating 29th in defensive efficiency. Simply put, the Nuggets lacked two-way players, and no one embodied this discrepancy more than Nikola Jokic.
Jokic
On offense, “The Joker” is nothing short of amazing.
Jokic slotted rates of 16.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists with a 60.5 percent eFG% in just his second season in the league. The only others to match those marks within their first two campaigns? Larry Bird and Oscar Robertson
| Player | Age | Tm | PTS | TRB | AST | Season | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Robertson | 23 | CIN | 30.8 | 12.5 | 11.4 | 1961-62 | .478 |
| Oscar Robertson | 22 | CIN | 30.5 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 1960-61 | .473 |
| Larry Bird | 24 | BOS | 21.2 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1980-81 | .485 |
| Larry Bird | 23 | BOS | 21.3 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1979-80 | .494 |
| Nikola Jokic | 21 | DEN | 16.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 2016-17 | .605 |
Per NBA Math’s total points added (TPA) metric, Jokic ranked 14th in offensive points added (OPA) and ninth in overall TPA during the 2016-17 season, trailing only Russell Westbrook, James Harden, LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant.
Jokic has a crafty repertoire while manning the post. From up-and-unders to hook shots—and a even a nifty flip shot—the Serbian Slinky often leaves the opposition snookered.
He also added the second-most value on post-ups (via NBA Math), a stat derived by subtracting league-average points per possession (PPP) from individual PPP, then multiplying by relevant possessions. When the defense bends, the big man has the vision to hit shooters and cutters right in the numbers. Jokic notched 1.1 assists per contest to Harris, 0.8 to Chandler and 0.6 to Gallinari, and it’s no coincidence those players attempted the most threes on the team.
The second-year star not only broke the trio free for open treys, but their overall accuracy skyrocketed when receiving the ball from Jokic. Chandler’s field-goal percentage increased a full 7 percent off such shots, while Gallinari and Harris’ also jumped over 4 percent.
In the 51 games after Jokic became a full-time starter, his figures jumped to 19.2 points, 10.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists on 61.6 perfect eFG%, and the Nuggets had the top-ranked offense in the league. But when the ball switched ends, they had the worst defense over the same stretch.
In other words, Denver was simultaneously the Golden State Warriors on offense and the Los Angeles Lakers on defense when Jokic played starter’s minutes.
That’s where Millsap comes in.
Enter Millsap
The Louisiana Tech alum is fresh off a season in which he notched career-bests in points (18.1) and assists (3.7), while ripping down 7.7 rebounds and shooting 44.2 percent from the floor.
In Millsap, Denver is adding a recognized star. He averaged 17.4 points, 8.3 boards, 3.3 assists and 1.2 blocks in four All-Star seasons with Atlanta, joining DeMarcus Cousins as one of only two players to notch such averages over the same span:
| Player | From | To | PTS | TRB | AST | BLK | STL | FG% | 2P% | 3P% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarcus Cousins | 2014 | 2017 | 25.2 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | .465 | .481 | .345 | .486 |
| Paul Millsap | 2014 | 2017 | 17.4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | .463 | .499 | .335 | .500 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Millsap and Jokic are the perfect marriage; if the latter was constructed in the Lab of Passing Big Men, then the 11-year veteran’s DNA was the first ingredient added. Paired together, they boast one of the most lethal big-man connections imaginable, and opposing coaches will be forced to pick their poison on a regular basis.
Give either player space to operate, and they’ll pick the defense apart to no cessation. Stick too close, and they have no issue giving up the rock to find unwatched shooters and cutters. Both rank in the top ten in elbow touches, persistently scanning the court for a sliver of daylight.
The Nuggets were second in cut possessions and in PPP on cuts (1.33), while Millsap scored 3.8 points per game as the roller after setting a pick, often using slip cuts and pops to break free. And when the defense sucks in, the adaptable forward is well-versed in scanning the court and making the correct pass.
But where Millsap will really make his mark is on the opposing end. Though the Nuggets lost their highest scorer in Gallinari, the newest member not only fills his shoes on offense, but also shatters the leather on defense. He ranked 20th in defensive points saved (DPS) during the 2016-17 season while also placing first in value saved against post-ups.
At 6’8″, Millsap employs the strength and quickness to protect the paint while also fending off intruding guards—a major area of weakness for this Nuggets roster. The team was fourth in both frequency and PPP given up against PnR ball-handlers while ranking sixth in frequency and PPP ceded in isolation. And with Emmanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray and slow-footed Jameer Nelson manning the backcourt, the concern of corralling ball-handlers isn’t likely to change, making the addition of Millsap that much more worthwhile.
While this defensive flexibility will surely help out the guards, it’ll make Jokic’s life in the post more painless too.
Per NBA Math and Bleacher Report’s Adam Fromal:
Alongside Jokic, Denver needs someone who can protect the rim. Enter Millsap, whose long arms and enduring athleticism make him a versatile contributor who can function in any defensive situation. Not only can he help prevent dribble penetration in the first place, but opponents shot 51.7 percent against him on 7.5 attempts per game at the rim, per NBA.com’s SportVU data. That’s by no means an elite mark, but the level of involvement is a strong sign.
Sometimes the best lessons are taught through immersion, and the Nuggets will receive a crash course on the defensive end.
But while defense and passing are important, we also can’t overlook the importance of spacing. Millsap launched a career-high 3.5 threes per contest in 2016-17 but connected on just 31.1 percent of those tries. After knocking down 35.7 percent in the two prior, his accuracy from beyond the arc has dipped to 31.5 percent in two recent seasons.
While the newest Nugget’s decline in accuracy from deep is concerning, the Hawks lacked both the outside shooting Denver possesses and a passer quite like Jokic. With the Serbian center surveying the court—flanked with plus-shooters in Harris and Barton—Millsap should have plenty of open opportunities.
Future Books
If Millsap’s seamless fit wasn’t enough, Denver was also able to lock him down on a friendly deal (three years, $90 million) with a team option after the second season. Not only does he add a seasoned voice to a young locker room in the short term, but he simultaneously provides flexibility for the team in the future.
As the No. 41 pick in the 2014 NBA draft, Jokic’s annual salary of approximately $1.4 million is becoming one of the biggest bargains around. But due to drafting him in the second round, along with the structure of his deal, the Nuggets have a major decision to make next summer: They can decline his option, making him a restricted free agent who would surely be presented with maximum salaries elsewhere, but they would still have the luxury of matching any offer. Or they can lock him in for one more year on his Walmart-value deal, which would make him an unrestricted free agent able to sign with any team in the summer of 2018.
The team is cheap now, but upcoming commitments could prove to break the bank.
In addition to Jokic, Denver will soon have to make some other team-altering decisions. After the 2017-18 season, Chandler and Darrell Arthur have player options, while Harris will be a restricted free agent and both Nelson and Barton. Mudiay, Murray, Trey Lyles, Juancho Hernangomez and Malik Beasley all have team options.
Chandler is 30 and Barton is 26, so even if the former utilizes his option, I’d prioritize retaining the latter swingman for the foreseeable future.
The following summer, Kenneth Faried will be unrestricted, with Chandler, Arthur and Jokic all potentially joining him. Mudiay and Lyles will be restricted, and Murray, Hernangomez, Beasley and Tyler Lydon will have team options.
That’s the same offseason the Millsap team option comes into focus, and if they decide to let the aging big man go, the Nuggets could realistically enter the 2019-20 season with a core of Murray, Harris, Barton, Jokic and power to choose where to spend next. At that point, three of the four (excluding Barton) will be no older than 24. The future looks bright, but the cards need to continue falling right to keep the nucleus intact.
Conclusion
The Nuggets have missed the playoffs each of the past four seasons after qualifying in the previous 10. Though they only made it out of the first round once in that span, just making the postseason is central to the franchise’s wellbeing. From fan intrigue to ticket sales and added revenue, the perks are endless.
Sure, the Nuggets aren’t beating the Warriors or Rockets next season, but grading moves with the reigning champs in mind is foolish, as each transaction would come up short. Only one franchise can clutch the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
And with Millsap aboard, Denver is still one step closer to contention in the West.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics via Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.