Tobias Harris is Emerging as an Offensive Star for Detroit Pistons
The road to success for young NBA players is often long and winding. History is full of talented players who could not carve out a defined role in the league. Versatile wings come into the league and are competent at many things but not great at anything, and that type of player will often receive multiple contracts but never have a huge impact on their teams.
Though Tobias Harris looked like one of those players five years into his career, the Detroit Pistons power forward is now bucking that trend.
Many scouting sources, including DraftExpress, initially saw the Tennessee freshman as a prospect without a clear role in the NBA:
When projecting Harris to the next level, his jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none skill-set allows scouts to pencil him into a number of different roles offensively, many of which blur the lines between the small forward and power forward positions.
And through his first five seasons, that projection appeared accurate. Harris was a man without a home.
The Milwaukee Bucks traded him to the Orlando Magic in his second season. After signing him to a four-year contract in the summer of 2015, the Magic traded him to the Pistons for an injured Brandon Jennings and journeyman Ersan Ilyasova.
The talented 6’8” prospect’s position was as uncertain as his defense was poor. His shooting was inconsistent. Questions about his specific role and his ability to provide value to a good team persisted.
Then came 2017.
Harris was demoted to the bench in Detroit, but he formed a niche as a versatile offensive player. Spending 72 percent of his time at power forward, he finished the season ranking in the 87th percentile as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, 83rd percentile in transition and 73rd percentile in spot-up situations.
His role finally became clear.
Through 15 games this season, the now-permanent Pistons power forward (playing 89 percent of minutes at the 4) has improved on last year’s impressive numbers.
After undergoing LASIK surgery during the offseason, the blur of his career 34 percent three-point shooting has dissipated. Improved eye sight has had a substantial impact on his accuracy and provides hope for Pistons fans that this growth is more than just the result of good fortune. And while boosted shooting from deep is certainly the predominant reason for his career-best offensive efficiency, the impact goes far beyond just the three-point percentage itself.
The most dramatic improvement by play type has come as a roll man, where Harris has surged from the 23rd percentile in 2016-17 to the 71st percentile this year. His ability to find open space and knock down shots after setting screens has added yet another dimension to his ever-evolving game.
Improvement in the pick-and-roll does not stop there, though.
Production as the ball-handler has gone from great to elite. Scoring 1.5 points per possession while running one of his team’s favorite plays, Harris has been quite literally unguardable, ranking in the 100th percentile this year.
The quickness advantage possessed by the Tennessee product against smaller 4s becomes even more dramatic when centers switch onto him.
When teams give him a little space, as Myles Turner did in the fourth quarter of a contest with the Indiana Pacers, he steps in rhythm into the deep ball.
John Henson took a different approach by crowding him, and Harris exploited the mismatch for a driving dunk.
As Harris has proved he can be a consistent, serious threat from behind the long line, defenders have begun to close out on him more aggressively when he plays off the ball, leading to a uptick to the 78th percentile in spot-up efficiency.
The consequences have been far-reaching.
Playing nearly all of his minutes at power forward, Harris often has a significant quickness advantage on the man closing out on him. So when defenders attack recklessly, he routinely drives past the close out, resulting in a 5-on-4 situation for Detroit. And his decision-making has been terrific in those situations, routinely creating an advantage for his team:
After James Johnson closed out too hard on a potential spot-up attempt, Harris immediately recognized that the rest of the Miami Heat defense had their backs to him and drove hard to the rim for a dunk in a close game.
Against the Bucks, Harris showed great patience when the defense stepped up and impeded his way to the rim. Rather than forcing a contested layup, he took his time and made an easy hook shot after creating some space with a post move.
The Detroit power forward has also shown an ability to pass after attacking close-out drives, like he did against the Sacramento Kings. After dribbling to the elbow, Harris recognized that he attracted four Kings defenders and made a nice pass back to Reggie Jackson for a three.
It has become quite clear, even in a small sample size, that Harris has significantly improved his game and is becoming a go-to option in a Detroit offense that ranks ninth in offensive rating this year. And while his nearly 50 percent shooting from deep may not be sustainable over the entire year, Harris has developed other parts of his game that he can call upon when his shooting regresses.
Most importantly, the 25-year-old has found a home in Detroit in terms of his team, position and role. His road to success in the future now looks to be much more of a straight line.
Follow Matt on Twitter @waymatth.
Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on November 20.