Welcome to the second production of Tin Hat Stats here at the small-sample theatre! Last month, we talked about the inevitable fall of Nikola Vucevic’s true shooting percentage (it fell from 62.4 to 55.2), the eventual rise of the Houston Rockets three-point numbers (they are up to 13th in the league), Andre Drummond’s unsustainable free-throw shooting (which fell from 70 percent to 63 percent but is still a massive improvement from last year) and the upcoming decline of Jay Triano’s winning percentage as head coach (the Phoenix Suns went 5-11 in November).

I am not telling you about these corrections to show how smart I am. I’m trying to prove how small sample sizes can be deceiving. A lack of data creates some hilarious statistical anomalies. Even though these numbers aren’t truly predictive of much around the league, every stat tells a story in some capacity.

Now we enter Round 2 of Tin Hat Stats. And for our second act, we’ll be focusing on fun blips that occurred in the first full month of the season. So grab your popcorn, go buy your non-refillable slushies and get ready. The production is about to start.

The Knicks Should Run Every Play on the Left Side of the Court

Wait, what? This merits some justification.

The New York Knicks did a fantastic job on left corner threes in the month of November. They finished fourth in shooting percentage from this area, converting 52.4 percent of their 42 attempts throughout the month. That’s not a crazy or unsustainable stat at all.

But when they launched threes from the right corner…oh boy, everybody duck. They shot a pathetic 19 percent on 21 such attempts, hitting only four of them.

That 33.4 percent difference between the right and left corners was far and away the NBA’s largest discrepancy. Only the Knicks and Charlotte Hornets had gaps wider than 20 percent, and the former’s chasm eclipsed 30 percentage points!

New York has just one left-handed rotation player in Michael Beasley, which would explain maybe a 3 to 5 percent difference, as righties tend to be slightly better from the weak-side corner. But 30 percent pushes past the boundaries of outlier and into the realm of anomaly.

On the pick-and-pop play here, Courtney Lee gets a wide-open look from the right corner, but he can’t finish the play:

On an identical pick-and-pop play, this time with Lee in the left corner, a much different result occurs:

Running every play on the left side is clearly, obviously, totally the solution to all the Knicks’ problems. It might help them increase their efficiency by tremendous margins.

Who knows why this huge canyon between the two corners exists for them, but it should correct itself in December.

The Memphis Grizzlies are Better Off Without Marc Gasol

The Memphis Grizzlies fired head coach David Fizdale after he benched superstar center Marc Gasol for the entire fourth quarter in a loss to the Brooklyn Nets. The Grizzlies went into halftime of that game with the score tied at 47. Gasol played a majority of the third frame, and the Nets dominated the Grizzlies in that time, 32-18. Fizdale needed a spark in the fourth quarter, so he parked Gasol’s butt on the bench for all 12 minutes.

The Grizzlies then proceeded to outscore the Nets 23-19.

Oddly enough, that period profiled as a microcosm of November’s entirety. Memphis outscored opponents with Gasol on the bench a lot in turkey month. With him on the court, the Grizz notched an offensive rating of 99.7 and a defensive rating of 110.6, yielding a net rating of minus-10.9. When the Spanish center was on the bench, the Grizzlies were significantly better, tallying offensive and defensive ratings of 106.2 of and 97.5, respectively.

That 8.7 net rating with Gasol off the court is more than 18 points per 100 possessions better, and it shows just how farcical this month was for the team. Mike Conley missed seven of the 12 games, so it was always going to be weird, but Gasol’s negative impact made it even weirder.

A huge reason for this dissemblance in net rating: The Grizzlies’ bench might have more quality players than its starting lineup. In the game against the Nets, for example, Memphis started the night with Mario Chalmers, Dillon Brooks, and JaMychal Green on the floor. All three registered a negative net rating in November and aren’t as talented as some of the guys the Grizz had come off the pine. Brandan Wright and Chandler Parsons both had positive net ratings in November, and they only shared the floor with Gasol for 25 and 159 minutes, respectively, out of a possible 448.

How poor the team actually played with Gasol on the court is still striking. Memphis’ rebounding rate dropped by more than 5 percent with him, and most of that plunge came on the defensive end. Second-chance looks tend to be higher-percentage opportunities, and the Grizzlies give up more of them with Gasol.

Case in point: The Portland Trail Blazers pulled down 15 offensive rebounds against the Grizz earlier in the month. Here, Gasol forces the miss behind the three-point line but doesn’t box out anyone and stands 25 feet from the basket. The Blazers get two offensive rebounds and, ultimately, a basket:

But not all 18 points of his unflattering on/off splits are owed to shoddy rebounding. A lot comes from, like many things related to small sample sizes, poor finishing on jumpers. The Grizzlies shot terribly—32.9 percent to be exact—on above-the-break threes in November with Gasol in the lineup. When he sat, Memphis canned these looks at a 43.2 percent clip.

Tyreke Evans, who shared the floor with Gasol for only about half the big man’s minutes, can be blamed for a big portion of this difference. Evans shot over 22 percent better on above-the-break threes with Gasol off the court, the flukiest of flukey stats. It could be that there’s less space behind the line with a stretch center on the court; it could just be noise.

Count on it being noise, just like the Grizz being worse with Gasol on the court. Given how much tension currently exists in Memphis, things could change for the franchise over the next month. Expect this tin-hat stat to start trending in the right direction.

The Best Way to Defend Kristaps Porzingis? Don’t Guard Him at All. 

When Kristaps Porzingis fired away with a defender inside two feet of his person, he shot an astronomical 69.6 percent. When defenders backed off and left him wide open? He shot 50.9 percent.

This may take the cake for “Weirdest Stat of All Time”. Porzingis shot 19 percent better for an entire month when he was heavily guarded than when he was wide open. Only a true unicorn could do something like that.

Kristaps’ confidence has a lot to do with this lights-out shooting in tight spaces. His 7’3″ frame allows him to rise up and shoot over, well, everyone, so he doesn’t care if a defender is glued to him. I’m not exactly sure what Marvin Williams could have done better below:

Meanwhile, the Hornets this time completely lose him on a screen at the top of the key, giving Porzingis a wide-open look at the rim. And he misses:

Maybe Porzingis is actually better being tightly contested—or perhaps more comfortable. Maybe small-sample-size theatre is at work. Who’s to say?

Well, actually, everyone.

Small-sample theatre is working its magic on each of these stats.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate as of Dec 1.