Tin Hat Stats, February Edition: Tomas ‘Steph Curry’ Satoransky, Patty Mills’ Passing, Portland’s Assist Drought
We are back for Round 5 of Tin Hat Stats! All the unsustainable stats you could ask for kept popping up left and right during February. Thanks to the shorter month, combined with the All-Star break, these numbers are some of the best yet.
In the most recent December edition of this series, we talked about Dragan Bender’s allergy to entering the post. He scored 83.5 percent of his points from deep in the holiday-laden month, but as expected, that figure dropped to 74 percent in January. That’s still absurd for a big man, but it appears Bender’s scoring is becoming more balanced as his maturation process soldiers on.
We also spoke about the hilarity of Draymond Green’s accuracy from five-to-nine feet, where he couldn’t hit the ocean if he fell out of a boat. He shot 40.2 percent from this distance in January, a significantly more normal rate for him (or anyone, really).
The closing discussion was my favorite: The Chicago Bulls somehow didn’t take a charge for an entire month! Seriously, all of December, the team didn’t generate one charging foul on their opponent. But, by God, in January, they did it! They took a charge! They racked up four in total, which maybe, possibly, hopefully infers some increased defensive awareness from the young Bulls team.
Now we move on to February. You know the drill by now. Get in your seats, sit back and relax. The February version of Tin Hat Stats is about to start at the Small Sample Size Theatre.
Tomas Satoransky should never dribble and shoot
This tin hat stat could just say “Are the Washington Wizards better without John Wall?”. They are 11-6 in his stead so far, and that includes a recent three-game skid. Before this time period, they were running over everyone and whizzing the ball around in a way that they never did with Wall in 2017-18′.
But the sexy record sans their All-Star point guard has nothing to do with his absence itself. His replacement has just been that awesome. Hell, that might even be an understatement.
Enter Tomas Satoransky.
You may not have heard much about him before this string of success in D.C., but you should know who he is now. In the games since Wall went down, he is posting 11.4 points and 5.8 assists per game on 56.4 percent shooting from deep. Un. Friggin’. Real.
Satoransky is the Wizards’ tin-hat hub—their driving-force aberration. He has gone scorched earth, and his ability to bury literally-but-not-really every catch-and-shoot jumper he hoists is the primary reason why
The sweet-shooting Czech had an effective field-goal percentage of 89.5 percent when he shot without dribbling in February. That’s 1.79 points per shot—efficiency that cannot be fathomed over any significant sample.
Give credit where credit is due: Saty did an incredible job making himself a serviceable starter over this stretch. But this is some mighty unsustainable shooting. His second highest eFG% when sorting by dribbles came off seven or more, with a 66.7 percent clip. That is a fantastic number on its own, and yet it represents a 20-point dip from his zero-dribble showing.
Wizards head coach Scott Brooks had Satoransky moving and grooving without the ball, and the 6’6″ point something was incredibly motivated to get open for catch-and-shoot gimmes.
I mean, what even is this?
So many great dummy actions, combined with Marcin Gortat’s amazing screen, and bang! Satoransky opened up so much for the Wizards in February with his flame-throwing limbs.
Party pooper time: Satoransky was 9-of-37 from deep during his rookie season. We have evidence that he can be a non-shooter. He will not sustain his off-the-catch numbers for another month, and the Wizards will suffer because of it.
Patty Mills is passing WAY too much
Hundreds of players drove to the rim at least 30 times in the month of February. Those same attackers at one point passed out of those drives to create a better look for their teammates. Tony Parker of the San Antonio Spurs was the second most pass-happy rim attacker in February, dishing the rock 49.3 percent of the time.
The most deferential downhill assaulter? That would be Patty Mills, who passed out of these touches—[rubs eyes]—70.6 percent of the time.
So, like, whoa. Did Mills even try to shoot on his drives? He took it into the heart of the defense 34 times over this 28-day period. He jacked a shot on just seven of these possessions, making three of them. That isn’t even a terrible percentage! Close to 43 percent shooting from inside the arc is passable!
Yet Mills, to a fault, would fire the ball out to his teammates at every chance he could get. He dished the rock 24 times and only ended up with three assists!
Mills isn’t especially known for his attack mode, so this makes some semblance of sense. He often does it without a plan and ends up running into defenders. His drives are unspectacular and fruitless and are usually just done as a part of the Spurs’ offensive system.
Many of assists aren’t even the direct result of skill. They just kind of happen:
Mills had no objective, and everyone on the Utah Jazz knew he wasn’t shooting. Nobody helped off their assignments or cheated into the lane; they stayed home and waited for Mills to dish like he always does. Luckily for him, Bryn Forbes bailed him out (side note, that was called an assist, huh? More on that momentarily).
Mills never looks to shoot, so his pass percentage on drives could be high again in March. But it won’t even be close to 70 percent; the league leader in January was Milos Teodosic, at 63.4 percent. Mills will shoot more in March. (Right?)
The Trail Blazers scorekeeper is too stingy
Who does scorekeeping for the Trail Blazers? And why is this person so stingy on what they clalssify an assist? This needs to be investigated.
Okay, no it doesn’t. But the Blazers had a strikingly low percentage of assists in February. They found a way to go 6-4 and were canning pull-up and off-the-dribble jumpers all over the place, even though wins and tough shots are not two things that usually correlate.
The Blazers pulled it off anyway. They only assisted on 47.5 percent of their made shots for the entire month, the lowest percentage in the league by nearly 5 percent. In fact, since the start of the season, the Blazers are the only team to tally a sub-50-percent assist rate over a full month—and the’ve done it three times!
So maybe someone does need to investigate their scorekeeper. How is there no assist here for Evan Turner after he sets up Jusuf Nurkic in great post position?
Maybe I’m nitpicking. Fine, I’m definitely nitpicking. But after watching what Patty Mills gets some of his assists, a little hair-splitting feels appropriate. Regardless, this stat leaves us with a lot to unpack.
It isn’t so much tin-hatty that the Blazers had the lowest assist percentage. Again: They have done it three times. Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Shabazz Napier are effective scoring off the dribble. This isn’t life-changing, revelatory stuff.
But I would venture to say they won’t be a full five percentage points below the second-lowest team in March. And incidentally, Portland is fortunate it was able to win six of ten during this stretch. In December, for example, when the Blazers placed last in percentage of points assisted, they went 5-8. Assisted baskets tend to be higher-quality looks. On some level, then, it seems like Rip City won in spite of its stingy shot creation for others.
Don’t expect that to continue through March. Head coach Terry Stotts won’t will his team to win 60 percent of their games if the Blazers champion less-than-desirable ball movement.
Thanks for tuning in for the February edition of tin hat stats. Just one more full month to go. See you guys in April.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on March 8.