Tin Hat Stats: Dragan Bender’s 3-Point Reliance, Bulls Taking Charges and More
Tin Hat Stats is back for month No. 3! The small-sample-size theatre is re-opened and inviting you to return for another presentation.
During the spectacle from the previous month, we talked about how the New York Knicks Knicks would eventually start hitting their threes from the right corner (they led the league in shooting percentage from this zone in December), Marc Gasol’s forthcoming increase in impact (the Memphis Grizzlies were only 8.4 points better with Gasol off the court in December, compared to 18 points better in November. Progress!), and the unsustainability of Kristaps Porzingis’ shooting percentage on heavily contested jumpers (it fell from 69.6 percent in November to 47.4 percent in December).
Seeing unsustainable numbers crash back to Earth is the basketball gods’ way of telling you not to get caught up in trends. Everything will normalize eventually. But looking at some fun stats from a month can be delightful, and sometimes hilarious.
As is customary, begin filing into your seats for the third act of Tin Hat Stats. In this act, we will put the focus of our observations on the month of December. Please turn your phones on silent and go to the bathroom now, because the show is about to start.
Dragan Bender is the Human Embodiment of a Rubber Band
Dragan Bender took being a stretch big to a new extreme. If you look at the leaders in “percent of points from three,” you’ll see a bunch of knockdown wing shooters, plus a few power forwards who make their living behind the three-point line.
You’ll also find Dragan Bender. A Center. It won’t take you long to find him either, as Bender led the league in percentage of points from three in the month of December, with 66 of 79 (83.5 percent) coming from outside.
Considering he’s a 7’1″ player, this is fascinating and shows how one-dimensional Bender’s offense was during this time-frame. He took over one-fourth of his shots inside the arc yet still had over 80 percent of his points come from long-range.
You can attribute this to a lot of things, but Bender is mildly allergic to the paint. The Croatian national took only 32 of his 211 attempts in the restricted area throughout the month—a minuscule amount for any big man. Top that off with his essentially nonexistent four (!) free-throw attempts over the 31 days, and Bender’s outside scoring can be seen much more clearly.
Interim head coach Jay Triano keeps the young center moving behind the arc when he’s in motion and has him spot-up in the corner otherwise. The Phoenix Suns run a variety of actions, but most of these involve everyone moving and causing chaos besides Bender:
If all Bender did was what you just saw in that clip, then his percentage of points from deep wouldn’t be that crazy. But Bender bangs inside and cuts through the lane when the opportunity presents itself. When he has a mismatch, Phoenix isn’t afraid to have him post up with his 7’1″ frame and become a more conventional center:
The Croatian Sensation is learning to use his size as he ages, yet he still scored a higher percentage of his points from three than Wayne Ellington. Ellington has a three-point attempt rate of 85.8 percent. Bender’s is just 69.7. Even if he continues to get infrequent post touches for his size, and never gets to the foul line, his percentage of points from three should still drop significantly over the next month.
Draymond Green Can’t Hit Shots from Close Range
December was a pretty typical shooting month for Draymond Green: 38.8 percent from 25 feet and out, 51.5 percent from inside five feet and 41 percent from mid-range. Standard Draymond stuff.
Except for five-to-nine feet.
When Green got close to the tin (but not too close!) he completely fell apart and struggled to finish anything. He took 64 attempts from this distance and only made 11 of them, good for 17.2 percent. That was far and away the worst figure in the league; the second-worst percentage from this distance, among those with at least 50 relevant attempts, was Klay Thompson’s 22.5 percent.
In November, Green shot 39.5 percent from this distance, so this dramatic fall off came seemingly out of nowhere. Without Stephen Curry’s presence for most of the month, Golden State’s offense became more compact and the spacing was weakened. This is likely the root cause of Green’s struggles, though it doesn’t explain an over 20 percent drop in his finishing.
Sans Curry, teams were able to focus on stopping the ball without frantic double teams. This made scoring in the paint significantly more challenging for the Golden State Warriors. In semi-transition here, Green gets the ball inside and goes for a post move in the middle of the paint. As soon as he starts the move, three members of the Utah Jazz swarm the paint and make his shot incredibly difficult:
Draymond couldn’t buy a bucket from semi-close. However, with Curry back and all the bad luck presumably out of the way, he should improve—and substantially—from this distance over the coming month.
The Chicago Bulls Need to Take Charge
The Chicago Bulls played 16 games in December. Collectively, the team logged 773 minutes. Somehow, in that entire time span, not one player on the roster drew a single charge.
That’s without precedent this season. In November, the lowest amount by a single team was three by the Portland Trail Blazers. The league leader in December charges taken, Ersan Illysova, drew 10 by himself in the month—double figures more than the entire Bulls team!
This is one stat amongst a laundry list that reflects how poor the Bulls were at protecting the rim during the holiday time frame. They allowed the sixth-highest shooting percentage on shots inside five feet while giving up the fourth-most attempts. That is as dismal a combination as you can have and reflects poorly on their overall ability to stop drives.
While the lack of charges drawn isn’t the perfect demonstration of poor rim-protection, it does show Chicago has problems being out of position on the defensive end. But even if the interior defense doesn’t improve, Fred Hoiberg’s squad will probably draw one in the month of January.
Probably.
Like with all stats that are a part of a small sample size, they may actually represent something. Every stat does tell a story, after all. But these are Tin Hat Stats, and they are destined to normalize.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on January 8.