The Numbers Don’t Lie: Lonzo Ball Is a Good NBA Defender
Let’s take a stroll through the league leaders in NBA Math’s defensive points saved metric.
As of November 15th, two guards sit in the top 10: 6’10” rookie point guard Ben Simmons is positioned fourth. Then, currently sitting at No. 7, we have Los Angeles Lakers rookie Lonzo Ball. In ESPN’s defensive real plus/minus (DRPM), for added context, Ball ranks as the 16th-best defensive point guard and boasts a positive score—even though he’s just a rookie. Lonzo Ball!
Yep, no typos. Lonzo. Damn. Ball.
Ball has been one of the most impactful defenders so far this season—not just as an isolation stopper, or in any one area, but overall. And to really show how well he’s played on the less glamorous end, analyzing what defense actually entails, in the most simple manner, is a good place to start.
At the most fundamental level, defense consists of preventing opponents from scoring in whatever legal manner you can and ultimately getting the ball back in your team’s hands. You can go about this in one of two ways: stopping the offense from shooting altogether or forcing opponents into as difficult a look as possible so they miss and you can grab a rebound.
The former can be done by getting steals, forcing mental mistakes that cause another player to throw the ball away or blocking a shot. The latter is done by putting a hand in the face of the shooter and, once the shot is missed, grabbing the rebound, thus ending the possession. Between steals, boards, blocks and inciting turnovers, defense is made up of numerous important aspects.
And young Lonzo happens to be exceptional at many of them.
Only six rookie guards throughout NBA history with over 200 minutes played in a season have ever grabbed 16.5 percent of defensive rebounds when on the court. Ball is, for now, one of those players. The way he scratches and scraps for boards on that end of the court should make Papa Lavar consider pivoting to “Big Mauler Brand.”
Okay, but seriously: Lonzo is excellent on the defensive glass. He is fourth on the Lakers in defensive rebounding percentage, behind a trio of young spry big men and ahead of starting center Brook Lopez. His towering 6’6″ frame is bigger than nearly all point guards, and his impeccable timing and gymnast-level balance allow him to compete with players bigger than him. Below, he stays on his feet battling with the sturdy Markief Morris, and once he realizes the shot will carom off the front of the rim, he swarms the rebounding area before anyone else on the court:
Lonzo’s anticipation is also prevalent in this clip. Cerebral players like him see the game a step ahead of everyone else. While evident in his passing abilities, his on-court intellect allows him to be a step ahead on rebounds, too.
The second he sees Jayson Tatum beat his man in this next clip, he understands a shot is coming at the rim. He drops back to be within tight proximity of the play. Now under the basket, Big Baller No. 1—or No. 2, I guess, if you count Pops—is in perfect position for the rebound. He leaps up emphatically and snatches it:
This ability to foresee what’s coming manifests itself in another aspect of Ball’s defense, too. The passing lanes he squeezes the ball into when he’s on offense are the same ones he’s able to shut down on the other end of the court.
His 25 steals are, as of Nov. 20, the fifth most among rookies. And his 2.0 steal percentage is top 100 in the whole league—absurdly good for a newbie. Defense usually takes youngsters—especially fledgling guards—a long time to truly figure out. But Lonzo already seems to have a veteran’s grasp on where to be and when to get there.
Take this bit of wits from Lonzo for an example. Anthony Davis gets shut down at the elbow, and Ball knows that he’ll try flinging the ball into the corner. He slides up to be in the passing lane, so when AD habitually throws to his safety valve in the weak-side corner, Lonzo is ready for the easy steal:
When he sees a potential pass, he swarms any avenue that could be used to make it successful. Watch here, as he ambles back upon recognizing that Devin Booker is starting to get into trouble. He sneaks just far enough into the passing lane to leap up, using his size and length to grab the steal:
Ball’s size is even more substantive when guarding the ball. His on-rock defense is solid for a rookie, albeit still not great, and the numbers back that up. He is first on the Lakers in defensive field-goal percentage, holding rivals to a 37.8 percent clip.
That stat can be fluky, especially so early in the campaign, but Ball has been tough to beat when glued to his man. His feel for the game is usually on display in this manner; he recognizes upcoming actions, which makes life harder for the offense. Combine that with his size, and he can occasionally be a great on-ball gnat.
John Wall found out the hard way here. Zo starts in position to ICE a potential pick-and-roll, then feverishly drops with Wall when the speedster begins attacking the basket. He stays right with him, gets his arms up and makes it a difficult finish for Wall, who misses short:
Impressive work for a rookie, wouldn’t you say?
Some other players have been walloped by Ball in much more embarrassing fashion—like DeAndre Liggins. As with Wall, Ball does an exceptional job sticking with his man for the whole drive. This time, however, the end result is much more emphatic:
De—wait for it—nied.
Lonzo is swatting 2.3 percent of opponents’ two-point attempts, good for top-80 placement in the league. Change the criteria from all players to just guards, and Ball vaults into the top six, accentuating his knack for both predicting shots and erasing them from existence, just as he did to Mr. Liggins.
Sporting above-average size for his position certainly helps, but Ball has a legitimate gift. This next clip is especially impressive. He first slides forward to deter Wall from driving. Once the pass comes to Kelly Oubre Jr. under the basket, he recovers and gets a clean block underneath the tin:
Preternatural anticipation and quick feet allow the rookie to both be in position, leave said spot to help and recover, and then get the block. His 13 swats through his first 15 games made for an impressive feat—so impressive that he’s the seventh rookie guard in recorded history to ever do it. He joins Vince Carter, Ron Harper, Lionel Hollins, Michael Jordan, K.J. McDaniels and Emmanuel Mudiay—fairly elite company—and has the most rebounds of anyone from the group.
Ball does sometimes get cooked on D, but what rookie doesn’t? He is fairly helpless on this drive by Kyrie Irving and concedes a basket:
In time, like with most youngsters, he should iron out his warts on these plays. And, fortunately for Los Angeles, he is already sound in nearly all other defensive departments.
When it comes to putting the ball in the hoop himself, Lonzo has a long way to go, but when it comes to stopping the other team from doing it? He’s already doing it well. Lonzo understands the game and its intricacies at a high level, and his defense shows it. He’s more impactful than anyone thought he would be and part of the reason Los Angeles sits fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions.
If he keeps this up, Ball will continue getting minutes and consistently improve. And with his basketball IQ, improvement would make for a terrifying stopper. He may have a target on him because of LaVar, but that shouldn’t cloud judgment of his game—which, to this point, includes objectively good, verging on great, defensive contributions.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on November 20.