The Miami Heat have built a unique player culture under the tutelage of Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra.

They made headlines in the second half of last season by going 30-11 after starting out 11-30. Their staggering turnaround was headlined by Spoelstra’s ability to turn other teams’ garbage into gold. The Heat have been able to yield productive talent in areas that other teams haven’t. The days of the LeBron James-led Heatles are over. Now, Riley and Spoelstra promise to get players in “the best shape of their lives,” as long as the players are willing to sacrifice for the team and dispense relentless effort. Their official NBA Twitter emoji is #HeatCulture, which is fitting given the identity that has been carved out.

This season is no different.

The Heat have cruised to a 29-22 record, good enough for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Carried by their pesky seventh-ranked defense, they are grinding out win after win. Thirteen players are averaging double-digit minutes per game, and Spoelstra is maximizing contributions from the entire roster. Already with quality road wins against the Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves and Toronto Raptors, the Heat are proving that they can hang with any opponent.

#HeatCulture is operating at a powerful level, and the roster is littered with evidence of Riley and Spoelstra successfully revitalizing discarded players.

Wayne Ellington has bounced around with six teams in seven seasons but has posted career highs in scoring average during each of the past two seasons while playing in South Beach. After four inconsistent seasons in Boston, Kelly Olynyk is posting career highs in offensive rating (107.4), usage rate (21.4) and defensive rebound percentage (22.9), per NBA.com.

Under Miami’s system, James Johnson has transformed from a repeatedly repossessed car into a versatile three-and-D wizard capable of locking down either forward position. Johnson lost 37 pounds and 7.75 percent body fat after signing on with the Heat in July 2016. At age 30, the new-and-improved variant is a quick-footed defender but maintains the strength to be an interminable bulldog. Watch how he handled DeMarcus Cousins in a late-game possession last March:

Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson were harvested out of nowhere from the G-League. Now, Whiteside has grown into a double-double machine and one of the league’s premier rim protectors, while Johnson is a key rotational cog who toggles between both backcourt spots.

After four inconsistent seasons in Boston, Kelly Olynyk is posting career highs in offensive rating (107.4), usage rate (21.4) and defensive rebound percentage (22.9), per NBA.com.

Viewed as a shot-happy guard with Kobe Bryant-like confidence but Larry Hughes-level talent (FiveThirtyEight’s player comparison, not mine), Dion Waiters was cast off by other teams. But Miami picked him up from the scrap heap and turned him into a reliable go-to scorer. The one-time enigma posted career highs in points (15.8), assists (4.3), boards (2.9) and effective field-goal rate (.488) last season. Real estate prices on Waiters Island skyrocketed after he provided one of the more memorable plays of 2016-17:

This season, Miami has battled the injury bug, yet it continues to pad the win column. Whiteside has missed 18 games. Justise Winslow hasn’t had a full healthy season since his rookie year. A nagging ankle injury hampered Waiters’ production from October through Christmas, and Miami opted for season-ending surgery in early January. The Johnsons have missed time with various ankle injuries of their own.

Miami has still proved one of the toughest outs in the league. The Heat have a top 10 net rating in fourth quarters, allowing them to quietly stick around in games and steal wins from unsuspecting teams. They have solid depth, which allows them to constantly bring in fresh legs to force opposing players to work exponentially harder on both ends of the floor.

However, teams that over-rely on nightly grit and hustle tend to have rude awakenings in the postseason. Come April, every playoff team is playing with full-throttle effort. Additional rest days between games allow rotations to shrink, and players nine through 12 on the depth chart become irrelevant. The game slows down. Coaches have more time to zero in on how to scheme for less talented teams. Oftentimes, playoff games come down to which team has the best shot-makers.

All of these factors work against the Heat, and it’s fair to wonder if they have the horses to make a realistic push for a conference title.

Stuck without Options

Miami’s record suggests that it’s an elite team, but the statistics say otherwise. It ranks 20th in net rating and point differential. Hidden beneath the “grind it out” attitude is the concerning fact that it has only three double-digit wins all season. The Oklahoma City Thunder, a team with a nearly identical record, has 19. The best teams don’t just build leads; they solidify them and put games out of reach by the middle of the fourth quarter.

The eye test also tells us that Miami is a middling team masquerading as a potential contender. The foundation of Whiteside and Goran Dragic is good enough to make the playoffs in the East but isn’t close to being championship-caliber. Losing Waiters for the season hampers Miami’s ability to create shots in isolation—an area that becomes increasingly important in the playoffs. And while the other top teams in the conference have their weaknesses, the Heat remain multiple elite players from ascending to true contender status. 

The problem with Miami trying to go all-in right now is twofold. No top-15 superstar is available right now, and even if one was, Riley doesn’t have the trade pieces or cap flexibility to make a splashy transaction that could put his team over the top.

Without generational-type talent on the roster, making a championship run is nearly impossible. Even in a weak Eastern Conference, getting Dragic into the All-Star game required an unprecedented injury curse to plague Team LeBron. That indicates just how far away Miami is from another realistic ring chase.

Their draft pick outlook is wholly underwhelming. The Heat doesn’t control any future picks from other teams. They still owe first-round picks in 2018 and 2021 to the Phoenix Suns, dating back to the Dragic trade. Further, they possess only two second-round picks between now and 2024. Trying to orchestra a blockbuster deal is hard enough. Coming to the negotiation table with little or no draft capital puts Riley at an insurmountable disadvantage. If Anthony Davis somehow becomes available, the Heat have no shot at outbidding Boston’s treasure chest of assets or Golden State’s theoretical package of multiple All-Stars.

Over the past few years, Riley has been forced to open up Micky Arison’s wallet to retain the players who have thrived in Spoelstra’s system, which has effectively left Miami with no financial flexibility. James Johnson parlayed last season’s success into a three-year, $43 million deal. Riley rewarded Waiters with $52 million. Whiteside carries his own $52 million in dead money. Tyler Johnson’s cap hit skyrockets from $6 million this season to $19 million next year. He’s on the books until 2020. Olynyk is still owed $35 million over the next three years.

The overabundance of mid-tier veteran contracts, as evidenced by the above chart, burdens the Heat with virtually zero spending room. According to Spotrac.com, Miami has $131 million in guaranteed salaries committed through 2018-19. That number drops only slightly to $128 million in ’19-20, and $126 million in ’20-21. With the exorbitant spending stemming from the television deal now fully behind us, the total salary-cap threshold projects to sit at $101 million next season, and $108 million in the year after.

Thus, if the Heat maintain the roster as currently constructed, they’ll be too busy flirting with luxury-tax penalties to entertain any premier free agents in July. Riley can market one of the top cities to free agents. The weather. The nightlife. The income-tax benefits. But none of that is in play without max-contract cap space—something the Heat don’t project to have until 2021. It is entirely plausible that Riley and Spoelstra could lose their allure by then.

Getting Worse to Get Better

Growth isn’t always linear. Sometimes the best way to take two steps forward is to take one step back.

Teams with aspiring title aspirations should have a clear vision for how to get there. Successfully rising to championship-caliber status requires some combination of untouchable developing players with Hall of Fame-type upside, high-quality draft capital or plentiful cap space. The Heat have none of that.

Settling for non-competitive status has never been in Riley’s modus operandi. For the Miami front office, discussing the option of tanking is akin to yelling “fire” in a crowded auditorium. The subject matter is off limits. Fielding a lottery-bound roster would be new territory for Riley and Spoelstra, but a complete rebuild is the best way to get them to rise to championship level again.

Step one is to unload veteran players who can help other teams. Ideally, that begins with those who aren’t candidates for a theoretical core in 2021 and beyond.

A few years ago, Riley could have entrapped a desperate team (See: Mikhail Prokhorov circa 2013) into a Dwyane Wade/Chris Bosh package deal. Such a trade would have lined Riley’s pockets with ample draft capital, similarly to how Boston has rebuilt after necessitating only one tank year. For Miami, that ship has sailed.

It would be prudent for Riley to begin appraising the market value of his top assets before their stock declines.

Interest in acquiring Whiteside exists around the league. Basketball Insiders ‘ Steve Kyler claims  Milwaukee is targeting the 28-year-old big man ahead of the trade deadline. The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor reported hearing “rumblings” of a Whiteside-for-DeAndre Jordan trade. Such a move would clear $52 million in future guaranteed salary from Miami’s books, but you’d have to think Riley would prefer to receive young, cost-controlled players and future picks. Whiteside is too talented to accept a simple bail-out trade.

It makes sense for Riley to get some compensation for Whiteside over the next 18 months, rather than receiving nothing if he departs in free agency. Trading him would be a clear indication the Heat are pressing reset, but Whiteside would fetch a bigger return than anyone else on the roster.

Plus, in an ideal world, rookie Bam Adebayo will grow into the cheaper and younger version. The newcomer out of Kentucky would be the primary untouchable piece in a potential rebuild.  He played admirably when Whiteside missed 13 consecutive games between Thanksgiving and Christma, averaging 12.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.1 blocks per 36 minutes. He’s still a raw prospect, but his intriguing athleticism allows him to attack the glass and defend proficiently in all areas of the floor.

Dragic’s contract carries one more season, plus a $19 million player option in 2019-20. He’s a scrappy veteran who could plug into a team looking for a floor general who won’t completely overhaul the offense. There aren’t many teams with a need at point guard, but perhaps Riley swings something with the San Antonio Spurs because Dragic matches LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard’s timeline? Now that Minnesota is relevant, would Tom Thibodeau be willing to attach an asset to unload the struggling Jeff Teague? Philadelphia is one of the teams reportedly chasing Tyreke Evans, and the 76ers have plenty of appetizing future assets from which they can draw. Dragic carries an additional year of cost control and would offer a bridge to allow Markelle Fultz to slowly develop. Those are the kinds of feelers Riley should be throwing out there.

The beginning of Justise Winslow’s career has been a roller coaster, best symbolized by his three-point shooting fluctuation: 28 percent in 2015, 20 percent in ’16 and 42 percent this season. The 21-year-old is a defensive gem, capable of staying in front of virtually anyone. Talent evaluators salivate over three-and-D wings, and with two more seasons of rookie-scaled salary plus restricted free agency rights, Winslow might yield a quality return. He still carries too much intrigue to sell low, but it isn’t unreasonable to think that another team may offer meaningful compensation to get a chance to sculpt him into their system.

After unloading the veterans, step two is to get younger and stockpile flexible assets.

Miami had the 12th oldest roster to begin this season, and, outside of Adebayo, we have a pretty clear picture of everyone else’s limitations. Having quality rotational veteran pieces is valuable, but even more so for a contending team. Remember, in this scenario, the Heat are rebuilding, so players who don’t project to be part of a long-term rebuild should be expendable for the right price.

Now playing in their late 20s, both Johnsons, Ellington, Olynykand Waiters would provide solid value as specialist role-players on contending teams. Miami has developed them, but the best way for the Heat to reap the benefits is to unload them to get re-tooling instruments. They need cap relief and opportunities to replenish their depleted draft-pick collection.

Savvy rebuilding general managers take advantage of teams in financial binds. If Riley decides to begin rebuilding, he can offer up his available cap space to take on short-term debt in exchange for first-round picks and/or cost-controlled assets. The Brooklyn Nets, for example, absorbed Timofey Mozgov’s albatross and received D’Angelo Russell in return.

Every team needs to reach a salary-cap floor. For rebuilding ones, using cap space on negative assets (bad veteran contracts) allows them to acquire positive assets (rookie-scale contracts and draft picks). It also typically results in more losses, which aligns with the lottery-driven ideology.

Due to the lack of cap space around the league, first-round picks will be even hotter commodities over the next few years. But what if Riley could take back shorter-term debt and simultaneously acquire a positive asset from a contender?

Here’s an example: The Portland Trail Blazers could package Evan Turner and a protected first-round pick for James Johnson, whose defensive versatility could be utilized in a playoff series. Miami helps Portland get under the luxury tax, and the Heat earn cap flexibility by taking Turner’s contract, which expires a year before Johnson’s.

Oh, and Pat Riley gets another draft pick. It would be a win-win.

Now is an opportune time for Miami to entertain the idea of taking on some debt. The Heat were granted a $5.5 million exception stemming from Waiters’ season-ending injury, but it won’t carry over into next season. Of course, the fourth-place Heat could save it for the buyout market in an attempt to improve their playoff odds. However, prying away a draft pick from a financially precarious team (like Portland) would be a shrewder choice.

Clearing the books would afford the Heat with more financial elasticity. That’s the mentality the Clippers possessed when trading Blake Griffin. In the current NBA outlook, cap space is finite, but free agents are not. Those few teams with spending power will have the top crack at free agents. And if you can add draft picks, rookie-scale salaries and expiring contracts along the way, then you’re in even better shape.

The Writing is on the Wall

There is nothing wrong with the current Miami Heat. They compete on both ends of the floor for 48 minutes each game. They have quality roster depth. They will probably win a round in the playoffs. So I’m not necessarily advocating for Riley to blow up the entire roster right now.

But he sees the writing on the wall regarding this team’s destiny and needs to get the ball rolling over the next year or so. With each passing transaction period that he remains inactive, the trade value of key Heat players will decline. Being stuck in salary-cap purgatory should only be acceptable if you’re competing for championships.

Before Riley knows it, he might be stuck watching all these middling contracts play out. Now 72 years old, he needs to create a plan to get back to the promised land. Warm weather, beautiful beaches, 24-hour nightclubs and tax-free paychecks are nice, but they can’t make up for a lack of championship viability. In today’s NBA atmosphere, the top free agents chase rings first and destinations second.

For many franchises, an inevitable first- or second-round playoff exit is a satisfactory accomplishment. The Memphis Grizzlies have been employing that rationale for years. But Riley has always portrayed a different nature. Throughout his career, he’s shown a fervor for trying to maintain his championship pedigree. Since 1980, Riley has been a part of nine NBA championships: five as a head coach, one as an assistant coach and three as an executive.

He even has the Miami staff wear their championship rings during July free-agency pitches. But it will be years before they get another chance to host a max-level player if they don’t act soon. With the likes of Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson and Jimmy Butler primed to hit the open market in 2019, Miami projects to sit out of the bidding—a scary thought for a team that peddles itself as the preeminent free-agency destination.

It struck out swinging on Kevin Durant and Gordon Hayward. It might strike out looking over the next three summers.

Rebuilds are tough. They’re difficult on competitive coaches, and on eager fan bases. Placing fate in ping-pong balls isn’t sexy. Supporters want to see the finished turn key house, but it still needs to be built brick by brick. General managers are constantly trying to evaluate the upper limits of their teams.

For Pat Riley, his team has reached its periphery. So what will he do about it?

Follow Matt Chin on Twitter @MattChinNBA.

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Statistics are accurate as of all games headed into February 1, 2018. All non-cited statistics are from Basketball-Reference, NBA.com, or NBA Math. All salary information is from Spotrac.com.