Spencer Dinwiddie’s Emergence Has Given the Brooklyn Nets a Found-Money Building Block
If luck truly is the byproduct of preparation colliding with opportunity, then Spencer Dinwiddie finally caught a break in November 2017, when he took the place of injured Brooklyn Nets point guard D’Angelo Russell. And if the first quarter of the season is any indication, that good fortune could pay dividends for years to come.
In his junior year at Colorado, the California native suffered a devastating ACL injury after leading the Buffaloes to an impressive 14-2 start. Despite the setback, Dinwiddie left school after his third year, only to fall all the way to the Detroit Pistons in the second round of the 2014 NBA draft at No. 38 overall.
Once staring at a guaranteed contract as a first-round prospect, he ended up having to fight for a spot in the NBA.
More than three years later, Dinwiddie’s battle is over.
The 6’6” guard’s path to success in the NBA wasn’t easy by any definition. He’s needed to earn every minute he’s seen on the floor while overcoming a major injury and bouncing from the Pistons, to the Chicago Bulls, and finally to the Brooklyn Nets.
Complicating matters further: Even during his wildly successful sophomore campaign prior to the ACL injury, Dinwiddie was never the most explosive guy on the floor. Draft Express correctly classified him as a good, but not great, athlete at the time: “Standing 6-6 with decent length and a below average frame and build, Dinwiddie is a good athlete overall, possessing a fast first step and very good quickness. He isn’t the most explosive vertical athlete, however, being a decidedly below-the-rim player in the half court.”
That combination of regular-Joe physical tools and suffering a major knee injury made Dinwiddie’s path to recovery and stability at the pro level particularly steep. But now, four years removed from that painful moment, the Nets point guard looks more athletic than ever.
At first blush, his indicators don’t look particularly encouraging. His free-throw rate is nearly half of what it was last year, and a smaller share of his shots are coming inside three feet than the past two seasons.
A closer inspection of those numbers, however, reveals genuine improvement.
Dinwiddie’s numbers this year are skewed by virtue of his increased three-point rate. Shots inside three feet are a good harbinger of athleticism not because of anything to do with the three-point line, but because, in theory, reaching the rim through traffic requires a greater level of quickness and leaping ability than settling for a shot from eight feet out.
By doing a bit of basic math based on his Basketball-Reference.com shooting numbers, we can calculate how often Dinwiddie is shooting from inside three feet relative to his remaining two-point attempts:
This simple calculation shows the California native has actually increased the frequency with which he’s getting to the rim. His recovery from injury is no doubt a factor in that improvement, yet his progressing athleticism doesn’t tell the whole story.
In lieu of substantive explosiveness while driving to the tin, Dinwiddie has developed an innate ability to change speeds off the dribble. He consistently finds a way to keep defenders off-balance by ducking and weaving—almost as if he’s navigating traffic in his hometown Los Angeles.
Dinwiddie does this most often in pick-and-roll situations. Watch him hesitate perfectly as he drives into Al Horford below, exhibiting expert, and patient, footwork to easily beat the Boston Celtics center for an easy layup:
In this next clip, a couple slow dribbles and quick shoulder fake led to a gaping path toward the rim against Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors:
Next, on a switch against the Portland Trail Blazers, a seemingly deliberate approach to the three-point line followed by a between-the-legs dribble ended with an easy blow-by for two points:
Dinwiddie’s innate ability to reach the rim in the pick-and-roll, coupled with his career-high 39 percent shooting from behind the arc, has led to immense success in Brooklyn’s favorite play type. He has kept the Nets offense above water in Russell’s absence while ranking inside the 73rd percentile of ball-handler efficiency.
And when Russell returns, Dinwiddie has proved he should stick around.
Though he’s performed admirably as the primary point guard—career-high 35.7 percent assist rate included—Dinwiddie’s 6’6” frame and so-so quickness make him a better fit at shooting guard. He has shown he can be a successful floor spacer through each of the past two seasons, and his progression as a creator will be even more valuable as a secondary ball-handler next to Russell.
And not only would being a complementary option help boost Dinwiddie’s efficiency, but it would allow Russell to take more breaks and explore his own off-ball arsenal when his partner is on the floor. Brooklyn’s original starting point guard shouldered a monstrous 35 percent usage rate in his first 12 games, so he could certainly use the rest.
Unburdening Dinwiddie from guarding smaller, quicker point guards should also help his defensive value. While he often struggles to stay in front of opposing floor generals, his improving athleticism will allow him to keep pace with opposing 2-guards.
Initially, when Russell went down after only 12 games, the Nets’ season verged on being doomed before it ever really started. In reality, though, his absence has allowed Brooklyn to plumb the depths of a found-money piece who will help complete its rebuilding puzzle.
Follow Matt on Twitter @waymatth.
Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on Dec. 7.