Season 2 in Review: Did Kristaps Porzingis Improve for the New York Knicks?

Amidst all the turmoil and controversy that is the New York Knicks organization, one not-so-small component has slipped into the shadows—sometimes, at least. That afterthought is none other than the original unicorn, Kristaps Porzingis.

Forgetting about Porzingis is far easier after all the Carmelo Anthony trade rumors, the Phil Jackson firing and the Tim Hardaway Jr. backlash in the month that followed another disappointing regular-season performance. Despite the controversy and the nagging injuries that plagued him in the latter half of the campaign, the big man still had a solid season for a second-year player.

Porzingis commenced the 2016-17 season with a hot start as the Knicks found themselves one game under .500 at the end of 2016. Nagging injuries then began to set in as he missed seven games between December 31 and January 31, and the Knicks finished January with a 5-12 record. The team was essentially in disarray from that point forward.

Though his per-game figures were fairly static for the whole season, his shooting percentages (mainly his three-point percentage) noticeably fell off after the turn of the new year.

GP Min FGA FG% 3PA 3P% eFG% TS%
Through 12/31/2016 32 34.5 16.2 43.7% 5.3 39.1% 50.2% 54.4%
After 12/31/2016 33 30.6 13.7 44.5% 4.3 26.5% 49.1% 53.2%

The downtown drop-off is concerning, and a multiple of factors could function as the root cause. Since Porzingis’ volume on “open attempts” (closest defender four to six feet away) was consistent through both halves of the season, it likely stemmed from a combination of injuries and regression to the mean.

Porzingis still managed to produce 8.66 offensive points added (OPA) in 2016-17 (78th percentile), but how did he improve his play? Utilizing NBA Math’s value-added metric (defined as “the difference between individual [points per possession] PPP and the league-average PPP for that play type, then multiplying that figure by the number of possessions used”) we can visualize where the Latvian legend was most effective in his first two years.

Porzingis polished his offensive game in several different facets during his second year. Though his three-point percentage fell off during the back half of the season, his most noted improvement in offensive value came on spot-up opportunities. He averaged 1.0 PPP on spot-ups, up from 0.85 PPP (26th percentile) the year before and placing him in the 58th percentile for the 2016-17 season.

Porzingis has strong court awareness, so despite his lack of foot speed, he averaged 1.41 PPP on cuts (80th percentile)—a drastic boost from his 1.13 PPP (33rd percentile) the year before. In the clip below, he notices LaMarcus Aldridge turn his attention toward the ball and makes his cut to the basket for an easy two points as the San Antonio Spurs power forward begins to look back:

The other notable offensive amelioration was on possessions coming off screens. Porzingis averaged 1.0 PPP on such plays in 2016-17 (67th percentile), a noteworthy uptick from his rookie season 0.89 PPP (48th percentile)

Below, Derrick Rose sets a pick on Vince Carter, and that half-second delay allows Porzingis to set his feet for an open look:

The Knicks signed Ramon Sessions to a minimum contract, as first reported by The Vertical’s Shams Charania, in part because they want an experienced ball-handler to help facilitate the offense. With Anthony likely on his way out the door, it’s vital for Porzingis to take the next step as the primary option on offense, and he’ll only be aided by the presence of a steady and willing distributor. Another year of similar growth will propel him into the next tier of stardom, though the real challenge facing the third-year big will be sustaining a high level of play on both ends of the court.

On the aggregate, it appears Porzingis’ defensive play slipped more in his second season. His defensive points saved (DPS) also fell from 35.85 to 0.0 in 2016-17.

With that said, he did improve in a couple of key areas. Porzingis held opposing pick-and-roll ball handlers to 0.79 PPP, placing him in the NBA’s 70th percentile. Though the sample size was small (33 possessions), the numbers suggest he has the footwork to stay in front of smaller/quicker players when switched onto them, similar to the action below:

And again:

He also vastly improved his interior post play, limiting opponents to 0.85 PPP (62nd percentile) which was a drastic difference from his rookie season (1.06 PPP, 13th percentile).A large part of what made him effective on the defensive end was his tremendous length. Larger players can back him down due to his slender frame, but his length can help mitigate those shortcomings.

Below, Derrick Favors attempts to post up Porzingis and, to his own surprise, beats him on the inside. Favors hesitates before putting his shot up and pays as the Knicks center and his 9’6″ standing reach are there to meet him:

Porzingis had a productive sophomore campaign on the whole, as he grew into a more well-rounded offensive player. Still, it left a lot to be desired. Without the restrictions of the Triangle in 2017-18, it would make sense for the Knicks to run more sets where the prized jewel can find open looks coming off screens and hand-offs, since opposing defenses will largely focus on him. He’ll also have to look to improve his ball movement and vision, as he only averaged 1.4 assists through two seasons.

The additions of Sessions and Hardaway Jr. should help open things up on the offensive end, but they will leave Porzingis more susceptible to exposure on defense. If Anthony does leave, the Knicks will likely struggle to win 30 games, and that’s okay. The primary focus of this upcoming season should be to groom the 21-year-old into the player New York hopes he can become.Phil Jackson’s interference with the team and Derrick Rose’s tunnel vision had a negative impact on Porzingis and his development this past season. Their departures should open the door for the young Latvian to reach his full potential as he evolves into (hopefully) the best player the team has seen since Patrick Ewing. He is the future of the franchise, and it would only make sense for the team to make him more of a focal point next season.

Time will tell, but if the Knicks have any hope of a decent future, Porzingis will have to make a big leap.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com.