Reggie Jackson is the Key to the Detroit Pistons’ Upside
The Detroit Pistons (21-6, No. 2 in the Eastern Conference) have been one of the surprises of the early 2017-18 NBA season. They’re currently top 13 in both offensive and defensive rating, and their offseason additions of Avery Bradley and Langston Galloway have proved fruitful.
Andre Drummond is once again the NBA’s premier rebounder, and his free-throw improvement, as well as Tobias Harris’ growth and three-point shooting, both perhaps credited to offseason procedures, have garnered much buzz. But what has generated less chatter nationally has been the resurgence of point guard Reggie Jackson.
Jackson has not been consistently dominant in 2017-18. Nor has he been the player the Pistons once expected him to be. But he has been better than during last year’s stinker of a season, and right now, it’s making a difference. The point guard hasn’t succumbed to the prominent trend taking over the NBA—focusing on uber-efficiency and outside shooting. Instead, he’s productive in his own fashion.
And for the Pistons to remain near the top of the East, they will need him to stay that way.
From last season to now, Jackson has boosted his points per game from 14.5 to 15.1 (Detroit is 8-4 when he scores at least 15 points), his assists from 5.2 to 5.9 and his rebounds from 2.2 to 3.1. These are all marginal gains and not at the level of his past performance, but they’re objectively better.
His free-throw shooting has improved to 90.9 percent, a career best, and his effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) has reached 50.5 percent. A free-throw-rate boost to 0.250 has allowed him to pick up some extra points, and nearly 20 percent of his scoring now comes from the line—again, a career high. He has also been successful at finishing and-1 opportunities. According to Cleaning the Glass, he is making 37.5 percent of shots on which he’s fouled, putting him in the 80th percentile at his position.
Players typically get to the stripe by first attacking the rim, but that has not been the case so far this season for Jackson. And that’s where the concern for Pistons fans should start.
Jackson has never been an example of the “modern” player, but his shot distribution this season is even more against the trend.
The floor general is taking a career-low 24 percent of his shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. His percentage has been decreasing ever since he arrived in Detroit, where he had about a year-and-a-half apex. He is also hitting just 49 percent of the looks in this area, which is only slightly above a career worst established in his rookie season and places him in the 19th percentile among point guards.
A staggering 48 percent of his attempts are coming in the mid-range, where he is hitting at an elite clip. Jackson is knocking down 47 percent of his looks from that zone, putting him in the 90th percentile. That’s his best since the 2014-15 season, when he hit 44 percent (84th percentile). He’s only been assisted on these makes 7 percent of the time, meaning he’s often creating for himself. And this is consistent with his entire shot profile. Ninety-three percent of all his two-point field goals are unassisted, according to NBA.com.
That isn’t necessarily detrimental. A diverse repertoire is a good thing. When Jackson is in his game and playing well, he gives the Pistons a different approach. Bradley and Harris provide shooting, while Drummond can be a rim-runner. Not everything has to be a three-and-D standout.
Jackson is often featured in pick-and-roll situations with his starting center. While common practice may be to put your head down and attack the basket, he prefers the pull-up jumper or floater from further out in the lane:
As teams launch more and more threes, he has largely stayed the same. The Pistons, like their point guard, prefer the short mid-range shot and are 15th in the league in frequency.
Jackson is taking 3.8 three-pointers per game (31.4 percent of his shots,) which is more than the past couple seasons. The Pistons as a unit are 17th in the league in three-pointers attempted per game and one spot lower in three-point attempt frequency. Last year, they were bottom five in both, so the point guard’s uptick makes sense.
His volume isn’t the only element on the rise. Jackson is a career 32.4-percent three-point shooter but is shooting 37.7 percent this season. He has been in the 35 percent range the two seasons prior, as well. These numbers are just average compared to his peers, especially given how the league is trending, but Detroit is fine with that in the moment. The Pistons are among the NBA’s top three in three-point percentage, thanks partly to Harris’ 45.5 percent mark on 6.1 attempts per game. Avery Bradley is also at a career best 42.5 percent on 4.8 attempts. Should Bradley and Harris regress, which is probable, the Pistons’ overall output will continue to drop.
So, at least in some facets, they do need more from Jackson to counter that probable regression.
If he could ever take the next step and become more than a 37- or 38-percent three-point shooter, it would give Detroit more flexibility. It would change the way teams defend his pick-and-rolls with Drummond. And he must create more, as well. Bradley, Drummond and Harris aren’t really shot-creators, but rather supplemental players.
In the 27 contests he played for Detroit the season he was traded from the Thunder, he averaged 9.2 assists with a 51.2 assist percentage. Those were outstanding, and as proved by subsequent seasons, unsustainable numbers. This year, he’s posting 5.9 assists per game with a 33.5 percentage—still very good, to be clear. Among guards who have started at least 13 times and played more than 25 minutes per game, Jackson is 13th in assists per outing and fifth in assist percentage. However, his usage rate is only 19th out of the 39 qualified players.
These metrics help explain why the Pistons have been a surprisingly good team so far and why Jackson has a career-high offensive rating: He’s been a strong distributor.
But are the Pistons built to last? Their shooting should regress, and it’s already started to trend in the wrong direction. So while Jackson has been a solid presence, he can’t just sustain his current creation measures for his team to remain near the top of the East. For Detroit to be elite, so too must Jackson.
If he can continue to excel in the mid-range, Detroit head coach Stan Van Gundy will take the production. Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey might not be a fan of that style. But if that’s your game, that’s your game.
Of course, clean finishing at the rim and the ability to hit threes are simply statistically more efficient modes of production. And Jackson is doing a good job in those areas; he just needs to do a good job in them more frequently.
So the question remains: Can he be a consistent producer with his current style? The 27-year-old has served as a standout performer in the past, and for the Pistons to be truly relevant in the upper portion of Eastern Conference playoff picture, they will need him to be a major factor yet again.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on Nov. 26.