Otto Porter Is Proving What the Washington Wizards Already Knew: He’s a Max Player

by Faizan Hasnany in Player Breakdowns

Some lessons are learned the hard way. The Washington Wizards front office knows this well after offering former star Gilbert Arenas a six-year, $111 million contract in 2008 that now ranks as one of the worst contracts in NBA history.

“What I did to get the contract was different than what I’ve done since I got the contract,” Arenas explained in 2013, per Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post. “I got hurt before I got the contract and I still got rewarded. So it’s not like I tricked somebody. They knew I was hurt. I didn’t play that year; I played like [13] games the year before my contract and I got the contract anyway, because of what I did. You get paid on what you did, not what you’re going to do. That’s what people don’t understand. You get paid on what you did.”

This blunder sparked a momentous shift in ideology for the Wizards, who have since focused on paying players as an investment for future work, rather than recompense for previous accolades.

When John Wall signed his first max contract in 2013, nearly every major sports media outlet questioned whether he was worth that kind of money. Similarly, when Bradley Beal put pen to paper on his max extension in 2016, people everywhere wondered whether he’d done enough to earn it. Tracy McGrady even went on national TV, on his 37th birthday, declaring: “If he’s a max player, I’m coming back.”

But Wall and Beal have shattered the opinions of their critics since agreeing to those deals. Recently, McGrady’s ESPN colleague Paul Pierce, who briefly played with the Wizards’ backcourt duo, identified Wall as as the best point guard in the NBA and Beal as the best shooting guard in the Eastern Conference. Pierce’s hot takes are obviously far from popular opinion, but they show the dynamic duo has proved worthy of the price tags.

It feels like deja-vu in D.C., because for the third time, some are concerned over whether a young Wizards player has deserved his freshly signed, barely dried max contract. The apprehension surrounds Otto Porter on this occasion , who onlookers have viewed time and time again as an expendable teammate with the ceiling of a high-end role player.

Washington has only perpetuated these sentiments over the years, through unsuccessful attempts to lure in a superstar wing—à la Kevin Durant and Paul George. Even Wall, who is entering the prime of his career and looking to win a championship with more urgency, has been vocal about Porter’s lack of star potential. As he told ESPN.com’s Marc J. Spears over the summer:

Look at our team. We are one piece away. We have the point guard, we have the shooting guard, we have the center, we have the power forward. Our three-man [Porter] did great for us. You can’t take nothing away from what he did. But [George] is a guy that can guard LeBron and go back at LeBron. It’s a piece that you’re going to need to win. If you don’t have a guy who can do that, you don’t have a chance… You got to add another star. You got to add another piece. You got to have three guys. And that’s what it’s looking like.”

No one is saying Porter will be Paul George or Kevin Durant—at least, they shouldn’t be.  But at 24, with his prime a few years away, he’s already flashed star potential.

Take Wall. He seemed to change his opinion by September, when he raved about Porter’s newfound aggression and ability to create off the dribble:

Last season, Porter attempted just three shots off the dribble per game on 48.7 percent shooting. This year, he’s creating his own looks at a much higher rate and with greater efficiency, launching 4.8 shots off the bounce per game and hitting at a 57.9 percent clip. He seems exceedingly comfortable handling the ball and is using a variety of moves to manufacture space for himself, as shown with this step-back jumper against the Cleveland Cavaliers:

The Wizards have deployed their new max man much more often as a stretch 4 this year, with 67 percent of his minutes coming at the power forward position, compared to 23 percent last season. Markieff Morris’ absence no doubt factors into this distribution, but Porter has thrived in that role and should continue to see steady run at the 4-spot.

Just 2.7 percent of his possessions came as a pick-and-roll man in 2016-17, and he made only five shots out of pick-and-pop plays, with an effective field-goal percentage of 46.7, per Synergy. With his increased time at the 4 this season, 8.8 percent of his offense has come as a pick-and-roll man, and he has already knocked down as many shots in pick-and-pop situations as last year, this time on an eFG% of 85.7:

Porter established himself as one of the league’s premier three-point shooters long before now, and this year is no different; he’s shooting 52.5 percent on five deep-ball attempts per game. His newly-minted aggression is most apparent in transition, where he’s confidently pulling up off the dribble from beyond the arc. He has already knocked down three shots in that fashion after not making any last season.

His long-range buckets are also coming from all sides of the arc. Forty percent of his three-point attempts came from the corners in 2016-17; that number has dropped to 25 percent this year:

On the defensive end, meanwhile, Porter is incredibly disruptive, jumping into passing lanes and picking opponents’ pockets with ease. He’s currently averaging 2.3 steals per game (second in the NBA) and, excluding Jason Smith (who has played just 57 minutes), the Wizards are at their best defensively when he is on the court, allowing a stingy 101.5 points per 100 possessions.

Porter’s activity on the preventing side and ability to finish on the break through contact is huge for the Wizards. They rank third in transition efficiency, averaging 1.23 points per possession, and, as seen in the clip below, his peskiness often leads to easy points and momentum:

Over the past couple of years, Porter would appear invisible at times, and not because of his slim frame. Consistency, or lack thereof, was the biggest knock on his game last season, as he failed to reach double-figure point totals in 22 of 80 appearances. But he has yet to score fewer than 10 points this season, and with the developments he made this past summer, single-digit outings should be few and far between.

Sure, the Wizards haven’t been able to land an established third star over the past couple offseasons. But they do have a tantalizing young trio with plenty of room left to grow locked up for the long haul.

Count on Porter to continue proving he is worth every penny his max contract.

Star players always do.

Follow Faizan on Twitter @Faizan_Has.

Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on Nov. 8.

Tagged with: ,