Kris Dunn vs Jerian Grant: Who is the Better Long-Term Fit for the Chicago Bulls?

Somewhere in the NBA is a team with a point guard conundrum—a squad with two players vying for one spot.

They’re both former first-round picks (one much higher than the other) and on their second franchise, despite being in their second and third years. At one point, they were both also successful four-year college players. Check out their per-game numbers, in disguise, from the NCAA level:

  • Player A: 16.3 points, 5.8 assists, 43.6 percent field-goal percentage, 34.5 percent clip from three.
  • Player B: 12.8 points, 5.8 assists, 45 percent field-goal percentage, 35.4 percent clip from three.

Fairly similar, wouldn’t you say? Well, things have unfolded the same way since they entered the NBA:

  • Player A: 6.2 points, 2.5 assists, 40.9 percent shooting overall, 30.4 percent clip from three.
  • Player B: 5.4 points, 2.8 assists, 40.3 percent shooting overall, 34.7 percent clip from three.

The Chicago Bulls have been pitiful this season, posting the league’s worst record and losing each of their past 10 games. And as they struggle through the season, head coach Fred Hoiberg has been tinkering with a rotation in flux.  The point guard carousel has been a part of this schedule-long limbo, but in recent weeks, he has settled on Kris Dunn (Player B) over Jerian Grant (Player A).

Unlike better NBA teams, the Bulls don’t have a star like LeBron James or Giannis Antetokounmpo to be their primary ball-handler. Denzel Valentine can handle the rock and move the ball a little bit, but he’s not primary point guard material. Last year, they could work through Jimmy Butler, and perhaps they can utilize newcomer Zach LaVine in the near future. For now, though, their options are in scant supply.

And with that in mind, it seems like a good time to mention they are 29th in points per game, (95.7) and 30th in offensive rating (96.1). Finding a competent point guard and sticking with him should help their statistical malaise.  After all, it would be hard to make things any worse.

Operate under the assumption the Bulls want to roll with a point guard who helps them the most now, and Dunn becomes the easy choice. And don’t worry: Gar Forman and John Paxson needn’t lose any sleep. Their tank will be fine. Dunn isn’t talented enough to ruin it. He’s just the best option, right now, to run point for talent’s sake.

Hoiberg seems to have noticed. Dunn has started their past nine games and 10 overall, through which he’s averaging 27.4 minutes. Grant has started 14 out of 23 contests and is, on average, seeing 24.7 minutes of court time.

Since joining the first unit, Dunn has played well for the most part, but he and Grant have recently been exchanging blows. On Nov. 26, in a loss to the Miami Heat, Grant played 30 minutes, scored 24 points and hit 3-of-4 three-pointers. Dunn had two points and two assists.

The 23-year-old bounced back in a Nov. 28 loss to the Phoenix Suns, tallying 24 points, eight assists and four steals. Grant had six points and three assists. In their November finale at Denver, where the Nuggets beat them by one at the buzzer, Dunn stayed strong with 19 points and five assists, as well as a go-ahead contested drive that should have sealed the victory:

Grant had eight points.

In a more recent outing, Grant held his own, putting up 17 and six in a one-point loss to the Sacrament Kings. Dunn chipped in only six, but finished with a strong eight assists. The see-saw keeps swinging.

Ultimately, the Bulls ought to stick with Dunn. Not necessarily because he may help them win extra games, but because he was a top-five pick for a reason and a centerpiece in the Butler trade. If they’re going to drive this season off a cliff, they might as well let him take the wheel and learn how to steer for the future. Their investment for this year has to be about developing youthful players with upside.

This opinion isn’t without foundation. Dunn, for one, is a defensive stalwart. He is fifth in the entire NBA in steals per game (1.89,)and was leading all players in steal percentage until just recently falling to second (3.4 percent). He owns Chicago’s second-best defensive box plus/minus (1.4) and also leads them in defensive points saved (14.63), according to NBA Math—one of only two Bulls players making above-average contributions on the less glamorous end. Grant’s defensive numbers can’t hold a candle.

The two are comparable on the offensive side.  The Bulls have an unimpressive 96.1 offensive rating with Dunn on the court, while they’re at just 97.8 with Grant. Their offensive rating is 96.1  without Dunn and 94.4 without Grant.  But Dunn is averaging more points  (12.2 to 8.9), rebounds (4.7 to 2.8) and shooting a surprisingly exemplary 44.4 percent from three, albeit on only 2.4 attempts per contest.

His effective field-goal percentage has increased to 48.4 percent, up from 41.1 percent as a rookie. And his true shooting percentage has bumped up from 43.2 to 49.3. He is wisely taking a greater portion of his shots at the rim, where he’s hitting at a higher clip. His assist percentage has jumped about 10 percent, too. All of Grant’s shooting numbers, meanwhile, are down from a season ago.

Some things aren’t quantifiable. Dunn is younger, taller and longer, and he has better foot speed than Grant. The latter cannot make plays like this:

Watch Dunn again. He jogs nonchalantly before making a powerful block like he has done it a million times.

Chris Paul is always one of the best players at protecting the ball, routinely finishing among the best in turnover percentage . That doesn’t stop Dunn:

He is known for being an aggressive defender, and his length clearly flusters Paul.

More recently, in a game against the Los Angeles Lakers, he used that same aggression and length to prey on Lonzo Ball from behind:

Dunn is imperfect, but his defensive repertoire merits finding ways to get him on the court. Grant does overtake him in assists per game, assist percentage and true shooting percentage. He also posts the superior turnover ratio and has arguably been an elite distributor. His assist percentage (31.5) rates in the 94th percentile of all point guards, according to Cleaning The Glass, and his assist-to-usage rate of 1.47 is even better (97th percentile).

It may just be the extra year he has spent in the league (and with the Chicago franchise), but Grant looks smoother than Dunn.  Dunn gives away the ball too often (20.6 turnover percentage), which is basically identical to last year’s mark. Per Cleaning The Glass, that puts him in the 8th percentile—an abysmal rank.

For example, in that Suns game, Dunn committed a whopping five turnovers. Some were fluky, but he wilts in the face of pressure, committing mistakes like a carrying call and dropped pass. Lazy passes and getting his pocket picked, like so, are more unacceptable aspects of his game:

In their review of Dunn as a prospect prior to the 2016 NBA draft, DraftExpress explained that his major red flag was a propensity for turnovers due to “wild forays to the hoop, to an at-times loose dribble ripe for being stripped, to flat out poor decision making.”

These issues are still plaguing him.

Grant operates with a more manageable 14.7 turnover percentage.  Persisting turnover problems for Dunn will prohibit him from making it as a point guard. Grant also commits a foul less per game (1.8 to 3.2) while drawing more whistles on the offensive side. His shooting foul percentage—share of field-goal attempts he was fouled on—is 16.7 percent (94th percentile). His floor foul percentage (non-shooting fouls drawn per play) and his “and-1” percentage are stellar as well, checking in at 2.2 percent (84th percentile) and 46.7 percent (94th percentile), respectively.

Dunn is well behind in the first two categories, with a 6.8 shooting foul percentage (26th percentile) and 0.9 floor foul percentage (10th percentile) which go along with a pitiful 57.7 free-throw percentage (6th percentile). These little things won’t  make or break him, but they add up over time. Performing well in the more nuanced areas of the game signals maturity. As one of the NBA’s five youngest teams, the Bulls need all the steadying influences they can get.

Dunn and Grant clearly present different paths. Chicago has its eyes on the future and a high draft pick, but no team should want to be as unwatchable on offense or publicly demeaned as the Sam Hinkie-era Philadelphia 76ers.

The Bulls need dependability in all facets of their rosterAnd it won’t be easy to come by. Bobby Portis isn’t yet 15 games into his return from suspension. Nikola Mirotic and LaVine will have to be incorporated upon returning from their injuries.

Hence why Hoiberg has stressed that consistency will be paramount to Dunn’s future.

In a lost season, the best way for Dunn to learn is by playing. He has more upside than Grant. When he flashes, he shines. Grant’s ceiling seems more limited, particularly on the defensive end. Dunn’s aggressive tools cannot be taught, and without his performances, who knows how much uglier the Bulls’ bottom-three defense would be. That he’s shooting and distributing better this year compared to last only solidifies his case.

A divide has already started to emerge. In Chicago’s last two contests, Dunn has played 65 minutes, producing 33 points, 11 assists and 12 rebounds while serving as its leading scorer in each game. Grant, relegated to 27 minutes, had six points, six assists and went 0-of-5 from three. The two losses are depressing, but Dunn has emerged as one of the few positives in both.

He ought to be billed as the point guard of the future until, or unless, a better option comes along—and Grant isn’t it.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on Dec. 8.