King of Kings: Is LeBron James Having His Most Impressive Season Yet?
LeBron James’ brilliance continues to stand the test of time—and then some. This year’s iteration of the Cleveland Cavaliers is living, breathing, if sometimes blundering proof. Just think: The Cavs are seven-and-a-half games back in the Eastern Conference, 3-9 over their last 12 outings, and still favored to make the NBA Finals.
“Because LeBron” has become the simplest, most accurate cliché in the basketball lexicon. He’s been to seven straight NBA Finals, and not even Bear Stearns would bet against him getting to his eighth in a row.
Everyone agrees that James remains the best player in the world—er, everyone except Paul Pierce. And how could they not, especially now? He’s playing some of the most efficient, impactful basketball of his career, matching or exceeding career highs in assists, blocks and three-pointers made. The real question isn’t whether he’s better than his peers, but whether 2017-18 LeBron is the best version yet.
As far as the counting stats go, this season has certainly been one of his strongest:
| Season | MP | FG% | 3P% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | 36.9 | .557 | .376 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 27.3 |
| Career | 38.8 | .503 | .343 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 27.1 |
But LeBron’s efficiency has been even more impressive than what’s captured here. He boasts a ridiculous 63.9 true shooting percentage—the third-best figure of his career and the highest since he played power forward full-time in Miami. He’s still fearsome at the rim, canning shots within three feet at an elite 79.5 percent rate. His three-point shooting is the real story, though. LeBron has taken a massive leap in Year 15, sinking a career-high 1.9 threes per game on 37.8 percent accuracy.
These aren’t just open catch-and-shoot gimmes, either. The King is hoisting 3.4 pull-up bombs each night, and he’s converting them at a 37.5 percent clip.
How can you stop perhaps the best slasher ever when he’s also feeling it from beyond the arc? Short answer: You can’t.
LeBron has needed to be this good. With Kyrie Irving now residing in Beantown and Isaiah Thomas out (until recently), he has handled full-time playmaking duties with virtually no respite. His basketball IQ is functioning at maximum capacity—he’s dropping dimes on 44.6 percent of Cavalier field goals when in the game—but he’s also been Cleveland’s only true go-to scorer.
Even so, everyone can see the drop-off at the less glamorous end, hence why 2017-18 LeBron may not be peak LeBron. He’s still a force on defense when he tries. He disrupts passing lanes, provides a dose of rim-protection and generally quarterbacks Cleveland’s entire system. But that system is yielding pretty pathetic results. The Cavaliers rank 29th in defensive efficiency and plunge to dead last, allowing 111.0 points per 100 possessions, with LeBron on the court.
Covering for Kevin Love, Jose Calderon and Cleveland’s glut of slow wing defenders is tough. But, as Matt Moore of the Action Network points out, LeBron is no longer papering over the cracks in his team’s play:
Don’t think about this as “LeBron is why they’re bad.” Think about this as “Why is it LeBron’s impact no longer covers for issues the way it used to?” pic.twitter.com/ILlvwTB0sc
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) January 10, 2018
James’ effort fluctuates wildly from possession to possession, and he’s especially prone to floating in free-safety help position without actually offering aide:
When push comes to shove, he’s probably still a plus defender. And he’s an absolute anchor when he tries, seamlessly switching between players and deterring both passes and shots. Try to find a cutter, and he’ll pick you off. Try to make a layup, and he’ll swat it like a fly:
But altogether, the Cavaliers aren’t as formidable a two-way squad as The King’s Miami Heat teams, when he was also über-efficient and in his physical prime.
We can forgive the man for not peaking right this instant. He’s 33 years old and in his 15th season, and he’s played more than 50,000 minutes of NBA basketball. Larry Bird, for reference, barely cracked 40,000. In other words, LeBron is playing like an MVP at an experience level when most all-timers either regress or hang up the sneakers for good. This year’s LeBron may not be the best LeBron—I’d say top five—but given the circumstances, is he the most impressive?
To answer that vague, ill-defined and probably irrelevant question, NBA Math’s Adam Fromal compiled LeBron’s total points added (TPA), our in-house metric for all-around impact, from every season of his career. He tested those numbers against the TPA of every guy in NBA history with the same amount of years played to calculate LeBron’s Z-score in each season, which tells us how much better than the average player he was/is in each individual year. Here’s what we found:
Fromal prorated LeBron’s minutes in 2017-18 to get a TPA of 630.67. That TPA yields the highest Z-score of any season in his career. You can see here how his Year 15 stacks up historically. He’s literally off the charts:
As you may have noticed, very few players have ever been as young as LeBron is in Year 15. Just in case you sports-science sticklers out there think biological age is more relevant to performance than minutes played, here’s LeBron against all age-33 seasons. He still tops everyone:
LeBron is an outlier in every fathomable way. Players who stand 6’8″ and weigh 250-plus pounds aren’t supposed to be transcendent run-jump athletes. Players who are so large and such good athletes aren’t supposed to be skilled beyond comprehension. And players who are 33 years of age aren’t supposed to challenge for MVP awards and drag unbalanced, undermanned teams to back-to-back-to-back-to-back Finals appearances.
The Cavaliers are struggling at present. They play matador defense, which LeBron sometimes aids and abets. But this man is doing unprecedented things once again. And when you remember his age, his usage and the minutes his body has weathered, this season stands out.
Honestly, this march against time is his most impressive yet.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on January 15.