Jahlil Okafor. Anthony Bennett. Hasheem Thabeet. Thomas Robinson. Wesley Johnson. Shelden Williams. 

Mario Hezonja joined this list of former top-five picks when the Orlando Magic declined his fourth-year option in October. At 23, he still has time to turn things around, but that excuse has been made for every single one of those players before him, just as it will be made for every future one. As much as a change of scenery and extra time can help, the action typically serves as a death knell to a career.

But tell that to the Croatian who was sizzling from the floor over the course of February. He averaged 15.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.2 steals on 57.8 true shooting with a 23.9 usage rating during the month. Of course, it comes within a season of mixed results and two years of uninspiring play. Weighing the recent hot streak of a struggling prospect is one of the difficult parts of the job, but it still begs the inevitable question:

Can it continue?

To see where he will go, it’s important to see where he has been. Hezonja was drafted fifth overall in the 2015 lottery, famously picked behind Kristaps Porzingis. The Magic, littered with fellow lottery picks, looked ready to take the next step forward as a young team on the rise. Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris seemed to be a solid core now benefitting from the addition of another top draft choice. The future looked bright,.

But Scott Skiles’ tenure in Orlando, especially with regard to handling youngsters’ mistakes, proved to run completely counter to the organization’s intended structure of administering patience. Talent misevaluations clashed with the coaching staff, eventually leaving limited development and an exodus of the up-and-comers. Both sides lost, leaving the Magic in a tough place after the “rebuild” from the Dwight Howard era.

Hezonja growing in this environment might be the most valid excuse for the slow start to his career. Both Harris and Oladipo showed improvements former Magic players could make when jettisoned from Orlando, and Payton now has a chance to do the same in Phoenix. Some players are great regardless of situation, others struggle no matter where they play, and the majority fall somewhere between, where the proper system structure plays a major part in their development. Hezonja has a chance to prove he is in the last of those groups.

To do that, he’ll need to continue to thrive in a couple of key areas, the most important of which is shooting.

Throughout 2018, Hezonja has been able to get more opportunity and free rein within the offense due to a hip injury that forced Gordon to miss nine games. He hit over 40 percent of his three-pointers during Gordon’s absence and upped his usage rating. Mixing efficiency with greater volume has extended perception of what Hezonja might become when given a regular spot in a rotation.

What has been the difference with his shot, though? The stats don’t bear out anything remarkably different other than more accuracy on his normal looks. He is not a player who pulls up at all, mostly finding his attempts on kick-outs and pick-and-pop options from deep. Rarely does he attempt looks with defenders tightly contesting him.

In February, he canned 44.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot looks—drastic growth when compared to 33.2 percent over the full season. It may not be much of a coincidence that his minutes shot up during this time, giving Hezonja the ease of mind to play through mistakes. Draft analysts portrayed him as an irrational-confidence player who was billed similarly to J.R. Smith. Pure speculation points to a player growing more comfortable when given a longer leash to play through slip-ups.

Spot-up attempts are the bread and butter of any talented shooter, and that’s where Hezonja will be earning his money this offseason. He’s in the 71.5 percentile on the season in the play type, and if he can keep that up, plenty of teams could find value in placing him at forward and asking him to let it rip from deep.

Also interesting is.where he’s been playing on the court. He’s officially moved into a role as the 4, but because of his time playing the wing and handling the ball during his first couple of seasons, he’s maintained an ability to create. He’s currently ranked in the top 15 in points per possession (PPP) as the main pick-and-roll ball-handler

He’s quick and has a threatening enough jumper that he’s able to curl around the screen and launch into the paint with his left hand. Above, you can see how Bismack Biyombo trails him and catches the pass to put it up for two easy points.

The stretch 4’s vision and playmaking aren’t legendary, but he exhibits enough of those traits that you can feel comfortable with him acting as a secondary ball-handler in certain units.

Hezonja’s size and athleticism almost become forgotten when initially evaluating him. It jumps off the page the second you see him take the ball in the open floor, storming down the court in transition. The eye test doesn’t necessarily match his effectiveness, but his improvement in this category has been substantial. In 2016, he posted 0.86 PPP on 1.1 possessions per game, but he’s now bumped those numbers up to 1.06 PPP on 1.7 possessions.

This is a perfect encapsulation of the combustible combination of potential and missed opportunity. He attacks Tyus Jones with a head of speed and spins seamlessly into the lane for what looks like a gimme layup. That is, until he fudges the finish and clanks it off the rim. His tantalizing skill is apparent and hidden at the same time, and it’s maddening that it isn’t packaged into a more consistent product more often.

Cutting isn’t a large part of his game, but he’s effective when he takes advantage of his chances. He lurks around the perimeter and is able to dart into the lane when his defender starts gravitating toward the ball. In a different offense, he may have more liberty and space to explore his ability to flash and finish at the basket.

A step back from the film gives you a good sense of the gradual progression he has made. His 13.7  player efficiency rating, 54.8 true shooting percentage, 0.064 win shares per 48 minutes, 11.0 turnover percentage and 19.6 usage rating are all easily career highs. Now, giving the 23-year-old a more defined role on a different team could elicit even better results.

The holes in his game are still evident. He can’t create much on his own, and good luck asking him to draw fouls when he takes it to the rack. His defense leaves a lot to be desired, even though he made steps toward becoming an average rebounder while grabbing more steals. But at the end of the day, it’s likely we still look back at Orlando’s reluctance to exercise its $5.2 million option as a damaging decision.

New management looking to eliminate the past is fine, but scoffing on exercising an option at that price is frighteningly naive. Two years is rarely enough to evaluate a player, and the Magic are quickly finding that out the hard way. Ditching a player because his skill set doesn’t match the new age era of basketball is fair (*cough* Jahlil Okafor *cough*), but failing to take advantage of an extra year of control in order to properly assess a shooting wing is downright nonsensical.

The Magic have the ability to bring him back, but it’s likely Hezonja decides to move forward with his career in a new destination. His market this offseason will be a bit more lively than initially thought, so long as he continues at this pace.

His new goal? To keep his name off the next list.

Follow Thomas on Twitter @Trende19.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball-Reference or NBA.com and are current heading into games on March 20.