On November 10, the outlook for the Utah Jazz seemed bleak. They were 5-7 and had just lost to the Miami Heat, only managing to muster 74 points. Worse, though, was the fact that franchise centerpiece Rudy Gobert went down with a knee injury that was supposed to sideline him for six weeks.  

The doomsday scenario Jazz fans feared since Gordon Hayward’s summer departure, that this young team would need to start over in the lottery, seemed to be coming true as the team dropped four of the next six, falling to 7-11. They seemed rudderless without their center, tossed on the tumultuous seas of the Western Conference playoff race, and postseason hopes were starting to fade.

The long-term outlook for this team looked bleak, too. Utah has a good roster with quality players like Derrick Favors, Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood and Ricky Rubio. A bit too good, actually. With a defensive anchor like Gobert and a host of talented role players, it’s too skilled to land a top-five pick and too bad to really compete with the upper echelon of the West. The Jazz looked like they were spiraling into that middling hell of 37 to 45 wins that every team tries to avoid.

Then Donovan Mitchell happened.  

For small-market teams, landing a superstar player can only happen one way: through the draft. Free agents don’t seek out these teams, even when they have solid foundations and cap space. Acquiring top talent is a single-lane avenue for NBA “mid-majors,” requiring the maximization of every draft selection. And Utah has done an admirable job finding quality players without bottoming out. They got Hayward at No. 9 in 2010, Gobert at No. 27 in 2013 and Hood at No. 23 in 2014. This season, they selected Mitchell at No. 13—a pick that is certainly paying dividends.

Viewing the young guard as a player with tremendous two-way potential, experts thought he would need some time to acclimate himself to NBA offenses. His impressive 6’11” wingspan and quick feet made him an enticing late-lottery defensive prospect, but shaky shot selection and difficulty operating as a wing in the half court kept a few teams away. The Jazz, who feared (correctly) that their franchise wing Gordon Hayward was departing in free agency, leapt at the chance to add Mitchell.

He started slow, seemingly in line with the pre-draft assessments, averaging 8.25 points per game through his first four contests before being relegated to the bench for a stretch. But somewhere amidst the smoke and fire of the Rudy Gobert injury, which could very well have sunk the season, the rookie found his stride.  

Since Nov. 22, the Jazz have won six of their last seven, rocketing them from 10th place up to seventh in the West. And Mitchell has been the breakout star of this mini-run, including a 41-point outburst against the New Orleans Pelicans on Dec. 1 and another 31 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Dec. 5.

He has been their leading scorer, averaging 23.0 points on a 49.1 field-goal percentage and 46.6 three-point percentage while pulling down 2.9 rebounds and adding 4.1 assists. He’s also fourth among rookies in offensive points added at 11.23, according to NBA Math’s TPA database. And perhaps most importantly, the team is plus 23.8 per 100 possessions with Mitchell on the floor across the same time frame. 

Mitchell has grown up fast on the offensive end. Only 25 games into his career, he has worked into the starting lineup and eclipsed his scoring average from his breakout sophomore season at Louisville, all while attempting fewer shots per game and knocking them down at a higher percentage. His growth on offense has far outstripped even the boldest predictions for this point in his career. He is taking (and making) big shots for the Jazz, filling a role most rookies can’t boast about.

Watch here as Mitchell cuts the game to one late in the fourth quarter with DeMarcus Cousins closing out:  

Remember, he was supposed to come into the league as a plug-and-play perimeter defender who needed time to learn his offensive role. But his defensive numbers haven’t been overwhelmingly impressive; in fact, some have been downright abysmal. He is 345th in defensive points saved (minus-7.23), according to NBA Math’s TPA database. He is also in the 11th percentile when defending isolations and the 36th percentile guarding pick-and-roll ball-handlers.

Mitchell’s defensive woes aren’t without some silver linings.

He is learning how to shoot the gap on pick-and-rolls and how to stay down on isolations—things that typically come with experience in a larger and quicker league. But his ability to close out on shooters has been on point, as he falls in the 93rd percentile when defending spot-up shooters, which is one of the easiest aspects of team defense coming out of college. He is jumping passing lanes and stripping dribblers with regularity, producing a steal percentage of 2.4 that puts him just outside the top 20 among players who play substantial minutes. And, while not know for his shot-blocking, he is an extremely athletic leaper, leading to plays like this:

Add to that 1.0 defensive win shares, which ranks No. 37 overall and No. 4 among rookies, and you have an enticing defensive resume that keeps the “two-way player” buzz alive.

Is Mitchell the Next Great 2-Way 2-Guard?

Projecting players is one of the hardest things NBA teams (and writers) try to do. Past production is not an indicator of future results, so no metrics to identify growth are foolproof. However, by comparing Mitchell to players who came into the league with similar resumes—shooting guards who were dependable scorers and could defend in the NCAA—we might be able to get an educated view of his next few seasons.

This statistical analysis compares Mitchell with modern contemporaries Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Victor Oladipo, Andrew Wiggins, Gary Harris and Avery Bradley (all players who came into the league with two-way buzz). The list uses either a player’s 21-year-old season or their rookie campaign, whichever is latest. For the sake of simplicity and to normalize some variance, the numbers contained in the study are from the advanced and per-36-minute categories.

He seems to be a little bit ahead of the curve in regard to his shot attempts. The Gobert injury thrust Mitchell into a scoring role the Jazz desperately needed without their defensive anchor, so his volume numbers (18.6 field-goal attempts per 36 minutes) are well above the norm for the group. Only Andrew Wiggins (who was in his third NBA season at the age of 21) was attempting more shots. Mitchell’s three-point attempts (8.0) top the charts, well above Klay Thompson’s 6.0. His pedestrian free-throw rate (3.3 attempts per 36 minutes) is to be expected for a player so reliant on three-point shooting to score, but it’s shown improvement over the last seven games by jumping up to 4.6. 

The players who rank above Mitchell in free-throw attempts, Oladipo and Wiggins, hold the blueprint for further growth.

Both got a majority of their scoring done by attacking the basket in their first few seasons; going downhill will initiate contact with defenders and ultimately produce more frequent trips to the line. Mitchell handles the ball more often than the other players, much more akin to Oladipo’s 2017-18 season. So if he can learn to penetrate and score effectively, as well as find his way under the rim without the basketball (only 20 percent of his baskets around the hoop are assisted), then we could see him hit the five-free-throw-per-game benchmark sooner rather than later. That’s especially true if he can learn to get into the lane from the top of the key and use the rim to shield from shot blockers like Oladipo does here:

Much has been asked of the rookie, as he is second among the relevant group of seven in player efficiency rating (PER) and second in usage rate—flawed stats that still give a glimpse at how much is being utilized on the court. His percentages also reflect Utah’s demands: He is sixth on the list in field-goal percentage (41.5 percent), sixth in true shooting percentage (52.8 percent) and dead last in two-point shooting (44.4 percent).

But while those percentages aren’t eye-popping, some offensive numbers tell a different story. He is second in points (21.2 per 36), second in assists (4.0), second in assist percentage (19.5) and third in three point shooting percentage (37.7 percent). All these are encouraging signs that he is fitting within the system despite his deflated shooting splits.

Defensively, Mitchell is unexciting but showing signs of life. His foul rate leads the group, and his defensive rebounding rate is firmly middle-of-the-pack but compares pretty well against Avery Bradley and Gary Harris, players of similar size. He is also in the top two of both steal and block percentage, indicating his ability to make plays that can help sway close games. He has the defensive mechanics to be an elite defender and routinely shows his prowess for making big blocks against larger players like he does here against Gorgui Dieng:

Mitchell will be an impact player for the Jazz for the next few seasons as this young core develops. That’s a safe bet already.

And as he continues to grow into his NBA game, expect to see some fearless shot-making and scary defensive potential. He is already one of the most notable rookies in a loaded draft class, and the sky’s the limit for the young wing. Continuing to develop on both ends will be critical to both player and franchise, but the Jazz should be more than willing to hand him the keys to the offense with all of his recent success. Calling any rookie an impact contributor on both ends is difficult, but Mitchell has all of the tools to forge his own superstardom.

Get familiar with him, because he is here to stay.