Sometimes, spotting a future NBA star is easy. Everyone knew LeBron James would be one when he entered the league in 2003—scouts, agents, general managers, even sneaker execs. His talent was readily apparent, his body NBA-ready. The Cleveland Cavaliers made the coronation of the King official by selecting him with the top choice.

Yes, sometimes, forecasting superstardom is that easy.

But in other instances, a game-changing talent enters the NBA with no pomp, no Sports Illustrated cover. Take, for example, the case of a skinny teenager toiling away on a second-tier team a world removed from the bright lights of the Association in Greece. An 18-year-old kid with a hard-to-pronounce name competing in a league that one NBA executive told Adrian Wojnarowski was like “YMCA level, playing against 35- and 40-year-old guys a lot of days.”

A kid like that wasn’t guaranteed to be unearthed, even with an imposing 6’10” frame and guard-like passing vision.  Too many young players to scout, too little time.

Except, in this case, former Milwaukee Bucks general manager John Hammond discovered the young man playing to a half-empty 1,100-seat arena in East Athens. And what he found was the biggest diamond in the rough since University of Houston head coach Guy Lewis invited Akeem Olajuwon for a tryout.

Even without the early fanfare and heraldry, Giannis Antetokounmpo is on his way to being the NBA’s best player. And soon.

Now in his fifth season with the Bucks, Antetokounmpo ranks among the league’s most well-rounded superstuds. While it might have taken chance encounters and calculated risks to put him on this path, the 23-year-old Greek native has made the most of every single opportunity. He became a starter in his rookie season, Milwaukee’s undisputed best player by his third and a top-five player this year—progress strikingly similar to King James’ own rise.

The two players are deeply intertwined despite their different paths to stardom. Each represented great promise early in their careers, and after blossoming into finished products, they carried title hopes for franchises mired in mediocrity. Both are freakish cross-breeds, protecting the rim like David Robinson and leading fast breaks like a 260-pound Magic Johnson-Randy Moss hybrid. LeBron changed how basketball fans viewed the forward position, ferrying an already-developed “point-forward” concept to new heights, and now Giannis is redefining the position again, becoming a “point-center-rim-protector-and-everything-else-too” forward.

But calling him “The Next LeBron” is a hollow copout. James was a polished player, even in his early years, leading the Cavaliers to the NBA Finals in just his fourth season. The Greek Freak is still relatively raw. Even with five years experience, he’s still wearing opposing teams down with his immense speed and size but continuing to hone his technique. While the capacity to be the league’s best player is omnipresent, he’s not quite ready to carry an entire team to the NBA Finals.

So when the initial All-Star tallies dropped last week, most were a little shocked to see Antetokounmpo, rather than James, leading the way. But the early numbers are reliant strictly on internet voting, and NBA fans have fallen in love with the goofy, lovable Greek kid with the million-watt smile, voting for him in droves. Despite hailing from the other side of the globe, he’s the ultimate representation of the American Dream: a player who worked hard and dragged himself to stardom by the bootstraps. He is charismatic, humble and eager—the total marketing package.

But how close is Antetokounmpo to assuming the mantle of best player alive?

This season, he’s averaging 28.7 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on 55.2/27.4/78.0 shooting splits. He’s second in scoring, ninth in rebounding, 13th in steals (1.7 per game) and 14th in blocks (1.3)—ranks that render him a true five-tool player. And yet, his overall impact shines brighter, in more meaningful fashion, when journeying deeper down the advanced-stats rabbit hole.

The Bucks are a full 14.2 points per 100 possessions better with Antetokounmpo on the floor while limiting opponents to 8.7 fewer points, numbers good enough for a plus-32 win differential, according to Cleaning the Glass. The on-off splits are so stark, according to our own FATS Calculator, that the Bucks play like a 45.5-win team (just above their current 44-win pace) when he’s in the lineup and a 32-win pushover when he’s on the bench.

Compare this to LeBron’s on-off splits: The Cavs play like a 48-win team with the King and a 49-win(!) squad without him. The workload—scoring, getting to the line, protecting the rim, etc.—Antetokounmpo assumes on a night-to-night basis is eerily reminiscent of this iteration from LeBron’s first stint in Cleveland:

Antetokounmpo’s ability to score and get into the paint has a warping effect on opposing teams that must scheme specifically to stop him, as evidenced by the sharp decline in three-point percentages when he is off the court. Defenders are much less likely to sag into the lane and generally more closely glued to their man without him on the floor, making open shots harder to come by. Check out how discombobulated the Cavaliers are trying to stop penetration; all five are in or near the paint, far from contesting any long-range looks:

The Bucks are also incredibly effective using the gravity he creates to find paths toward the basket. They hardly ever attempt closely guarded two-pointers; they’re 29th in frequency of shots attempted when a defender is within two feet, while conversely placing sixth on the same looks when the closest contester is six or more feet away.

Antetokounmpo is also a potent break-starter for the third-best transition offense. He torches opponents by using his length like an advantage gambler, making (almost) every risk a profitable one:

And he has absolutely zero qualms about running the show and finishing plays from end-to-end:

When you put all of these skills together, the Bucks’ rise from the basement is easy to understand. And with another young stud in Jabari Parker coming back from an ACL injury soon, they look to be one of the most serious challengers to the Cavs’ Eastern Conference crown. But two things still stand between Antetokounmpo and seizing the title of Apex Predator: his shaky three-point shooting and Milwaukee’s coaching situation.

Outside accuracy has always been a problem for the 6’11″ forward; he’s converted just 27.7 percent of his long-range attempts for his career. He does a majority of his damage getting to the basket, either off passes from teammates—only 64 percent of his made baskets around the rim are assisted on, putting him in the 36th percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass—or by attacking the restricted area, where he’s a 72.7 percent shooter (82nd percentile). These days, he even has decent enough mechanics from mid-range:

When faced with time to shoot a three, though, he has some hesitation in his giddyup:

As the old basketball adage goes, players with large hands tend to be poor shooters. And while that might not be the most scientific measure, Giannis certainly does have some enormous mitts. But chalking his warts up to mental blocks is the safer assumption. His hesitation in pulling the trigger is likely some ingrained behaviorism, resulting from a lot of bad misses.

Problems like this can’t be fixed overnight, but they can be remedied over a summer’s worth of dedication—something Antetokounmpo has no problem embracing, having learned to play point guard during the 2014 offseason. And given his veritable repertoire of scoring moves already, an increase to something like 33 percent would open up a world of space for a player who already has defenses scared to death.

As far as coaching goes, NBA Math’s own Matt Way has already gone in on Jason Kidd for his litany of tactical mishaps. If the Bucks are an early exit in the playoffs, or bow out due to glaring strategic errors like going under screens or blitzing pick-and-roll ball-handlers who can’t shoot, look for a change over the offseason. Kidd has helped mold a quality roster with some promise, but his present inability to generate trademark wins, with an 11-12 record against teams above .500, could be his undoing.

Antetokounmpo has already blossomed into one of the Association’s biggest stars anyway. Before the season started, more than 20 percent of NBA general managers voted for him as their top choice to build a franchise around, landing him just behind Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns. If that same survey were to be taken today, he would almost assuredly tower over the field—including Towns.

Hence why the LeBron James comparisons just keep coming. Fans want to pigeonhole Antetokounmpo into the King’s shadow rather than let him develop his never-before-seen brand of stardom—an utter waste of singularity.  James has worn the best-player crown for more than a decade, but trying to emulate his path to the top strips the Greek Freak of his own stylistic identity.

Even though both have faced similar situations with three-point shooting and uninspired coaching, and both are awe-inspiring physical specimens who turn routine sets into highlight reel plays, the subtle differences are what we should celebrate. James was more compact and lithe at 23 years old, using his unparalleled body control and quickness to speed by defenders. If young LeBron was a Formula One racer, Giannis is more of a rally car, using his power to control the game. He can outrun and outjump at times, but the strength of his game comes from his overwhelming physical features.

At this stage of his career, Antetokounmpo has drawn inspiration from many of the greats, the King included.  He has some Shaq, some Magic, a little Hakeem and even a dash of Shawn Kemp. And his variety and versatility make him such a compelling player.

So let him grow at his own pace. Enjoy watching a superstar find himself and develop beyond the wildest projections. And while he does, be satisfied with calling him “the next big thing,” “a future MVP” or “a unicorn.”

But don’t call him “The Next LeBron.”

Follow Alex on Twitter @AlexWestNBA.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball-Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on Jan. 9.