If you walk around the streets of San Antonio for a while, particularly during the winter and early spring, you will notice one thing: The city is obsessed with the San Antonio Spurs. From flags on cars to murals scrawled by local artists on the side of mom-and-pop restaurants, the city bleeds black and silver.

And rightfully so, with no other professional sports teams and sustained success for two decades, including five Larry O’Brien trophies, the people of the nation’s seventh-largest city have a lot of pride in their hometown team. The lengthy run has bred a generation of informed and passionate fans, which are hard to find in cities with multiple pro sports franchises dividing the attention of citizens. Spurs fans love the game.

So when a die-hard fan told me she thought the team wasn’t really that good, I took a  pause and considered what she had said.

The San Antonio Spurs have been the league’s most consistent team for over two decades, regardless of who puts on the iconic jerseys. This sustained success stems, in large part, from the one constant for the organization over that time frame: head coach Gregg Popovich. Pop is the best coach in NBA history with a career winning percentage of .692 over 22 seasons (1184-526). He has changed with—and, at times, revolutionized—the game, keeping the Spurs on top despite almost every roadblock.

His ability to keep teams afloat and squeeze the most from every young player on the roster is nothing short of amazing. But is Pop’s masterful grasp on the sport keeping San Antonio living above its means?

The Spurs 34-19 and sitting comfortably in the third seed of the competitive Western Conference. But a question still emerges about how good they actually are: Is this an elite team with a real chance at making the Western Conference Finals, or are we witnessing an exquisite performance by Popovich, the Master of Smoke and Mirrors?

The Spurs are Good (An Argument in Four Parts)

1. Aldridge has Returned to his Trail Blazers Form

Last season, a public outcry about trading LaMarcus Aldridge swept through Spurs fandom as he was amidst his lowest scoring season since his rookie year. Moreover, significant questions about how he fit alongside incumbent superstar Kawhi Leonard, with both needing the ball to be effective offensive players, needed answering.

This season, after a secret summertime meeting with Popovich, Aldridge looks like the player the Spurs envisioned when he signed from Portland. His numbers are reminiscent of the ‘13-’14 and ‘14-’15 seasons (his best work), averaging 22.2 points and 8.5 rebounds on 48.9 percent shooting. According to Cleaning the Glass, the team is 7.7 points better with him on the court, ranking in the 84th percentile, and his usage rate (26.9) is in the 95th percentile.

His mid-range scoring ability (59 percent of his offense) makes him a difficult cover in pick-and-pop situations, and his turnaround jumper allows the use of his shoulders and height in creating space. While this type of scoring isn’t necessarily advanced-stats friendly, plays like this are hard to stop:

But how much has Leonard’s extended absence helped Aldridge feel comfortable?

Becoming the focal point of the offense once again has done more than boost the 12-year vet’s usage rate; he has also regained his status as his team’s best player and the confidence that goes with it. If and when Kawhi makes his return later this season, the two must find a middle ground benefitting both parties in order to continue playing at a high level. Kawhi is the team’s best player, but a deep playoff run is contingent on Aldridge sustaining his All-Star season.

2. Great Defense

Popovich’s teams have always controlled the game with a stingy defense, and this iteration is no exception, ranking second in defensive rating at 101.1—probably the preeminent reason for their .642 win percentage. Controlling the clock like a run-heavy football team, San Antonio turns basketball into an efficiency contest, coaxing teams to beat them at their own grinding game. The Spurs play at the league’s second-slowest pace, limiting opposing teams by allowing the ninth-fewest field goals attempted and the fifth-fewest three-pointers attempted.

While no single area of the defense stands out, they are top 10 in blocks, opponent offensive rebounding, field-goal percentage allowed,  second-chance opportunities allowed and points allowed in the paint—stats that show a comprehensive approach to defending. The Spurs execute the small details, like nailing switches and getting back to limit transition baskets. Eliminating these needless errors has propelled this team throughout the season.

And while Leonard’s presence might complicate the offense, his return will only make them more effective executing a complete stranglehold on opposing offenses.

3. Third in the West, Even without Leonard

San Antonio has been without Leonard for all but nine games this season. Conventional wisdom would say the loss of a top-five player would put the team in a tailspin, however recent history would not prove that thought as a hard-and-fast rule.

Four top players have missed significant time in the past five seasons: Russell Westbrook (2013-14, knee), Paul George (2014-15, leg), Kevin Durant (2014-15, foot) and Blake Griffin (2015-16 quad), and three of the four teams made the playoffs. The commonality between the Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers and Spurs comes from having other All-Stars or All-Star-caliber players shouldering the load. The Thunder had the non-injured half of the Westbrook and Durant duo in successive years, while the Clippers had Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan.  The Spurs have LaMarcus Aldridge and a plethora of older talent, which has aged nicely into a role-playing supporting cast.

Organizational competence is an oft-overlooked part of team building, but the Spurs have continually spent (or, in some cases, not spent) money effectively while manufacturing talent with draft picks. Letting players like Jonathon Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon move to other teams on high offer sheets while adding Rudy Gay and re-signing Manu Ginobili on team-friendly deals are steps that should not be overlooked. While the roster might not be laden with the best of the best, they field a competitive roster filled with rotation role players.

4. Contributions by Role Players

The Spurs have always developed homegrown talent, even with picks in the mid-to-late 20s. Players such as Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes and Davis Bertans have all contributed mightily to the Spurs’ success this season.

With Leonard out for an extended period, Anderson has assumed the starting 3 role and is a part of nearly every successful Spurs lineup. He leads the team with 104.95 defensive points saved (No. 4 among all NBA players) and has become one of those advanced-statistics darlings the Spurs always seem to produce, ranking 14th in steal percentage and second in defensive box plus/minus. His disruptive abilities can’t be downplayed, and execution like this has become his calling card, as he rotates and creates havoc for drivers and rollers alike:

Forbes and Bertans have both seen a big minutes boost in January, going from 21.1 and 14.7, respectively, to both clocking 24.4 minutes over the past 15 games. Lineup discontinuity no doubt plays some factor when the Spurs struggles, but both young players have acquitted themselves nicely, averaging over 10 points per game for the month—offensive contributions the team desperately needed.

Even players like Pau Gasol and Ginobili have aged gracefully from stars to role players. Gasol is averaging his career low in minutes but still posts 10.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, while Ginobili logs 9.2 points despite playing just 20.7 minutes per outing. With young players becoming valuable rotation pieces and older players carrying the load as they are able, the Spurs cobble together enough points to get the job done.

However, even with these encouraging signs, something still doesn’t sit right.

This team seems suspect, like a stiff breeze could dislodge the carefully placed underpinnings. Popovich gets excellent contributions from players (see: Tiago Splitter, Gary Neal and Marco Belinelli) who never find as much success away from the silver and black. Perhaps this team’s success comes from the brilliance of its hoary coach, who could squeeze NBA-caliber talent from your high school’s ninth-grade team.

It’s All Smoke and Mirrors (The Rebuttal)

1. Up-and-Down January

The Spurs started out hot, jumping out to a 25-11 start on Dec. 9, but have returned to earth since. In January alone, they are a mercurial 9-7 with a quality win over the Cleveland Cavaliers but bad losses against Western Conference also-rans (the Los Angeles Lakers) and Luke Doncic hopefuls (the Atlanta Hawks).

Injuries and resting have kept key contributors like Gay, Gasol and Ginobili out, and the team has suffered as a result. For the season, the Spurs have an offensive rating of 104.7 (16th), but that number falls to 104.2 (22nd) in January.

But injuries aren’t the only factor.

The Spurs have mounted some truly abysmal offensive efforts, scoring only 81, 83  and 78 points in losses featuring nearly the entire cast outside of Gay and Leonard. Their four worst offensive performances have all come since Dec. 30 (a 79-point effort against Detroit being the fourth), and a single major issue bears much of the blame.

Besides Aldridge, San Antonio lacks true scorers who can create opportunities for themselves, and teams play more tightly on catch-and-shoot aficionados like Patty Mills and Danny Green. The Spurs lead the league in spot-up possessions, getting 24.5 percent of their offense from those sets, but both aforementioned marksmen have suffered shooting dips this month. Green, in particular, has plunged from his pre-January season average (39.0 percent from downtown to 24.4 percent). His stroke has become so suspect that teams often leave the career 39.6 percent shooter all alone, making possessions like this, with Jimmy Butler going under the screen, the norm:

Without another player to get buckets down the stretch, the pressure placed on the defense by teams like Golden State and Houston may be overwhelming. A lot of game film is now available, and teams have seen how one-dimensional San Antonio has become. As a result, they’re tightening up on players around Aldridge, effectively choking the Spurs’ suddenly sputtering offense.

2. They’re Old

This point almost goes without saying, but the Spurs are dependent on a lot of players whose best days are in the rearview mirror. Both Ginobili and Gasol are on the “Oldest Active Players” Wikipedia page. Tony Parker is 36. Even Aldridge, at 32, is no spring chicken. According to Basketball-Reference, the Spurs are the third-oldest team in the league, which tells a nice story but fails to take into account that 168 of the team’s 265 starts (63.3 percent) come from players who are at least 30.

For older players, injuries are cause for greater concern.

In youth, turned ankles and jammed fingers are a part of playing the game, but recovery periods lengthen as players age. Though key contributors missing time hasn’t been an outrageous problem for San Antonio thus far, lineups will shorten and make each healthy player more important as the playoffs start. When you couple this with the fact that the elders have been the most effective players this season, age starts to look like more of problem.

Especially when you consider this next point.

3. Young Talents Are All Role Players

Though the organization has done a bang-up job finding contributors late in the first round, only so much talent can be gleaned with those picks.

Since 2010, just four players chosen No. 20 or later have made All-Star or All-NBA Teams (Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Draymond Green and Rudy Gobert). The last time San Antonio’s own pick has come above 20? Tim Duncan in 1997. Adding role players has definitely greased the wheels of this organization, and the occasional diamond in the rough—like Ginobili, who was selected 57th overall during the 1999 draft—has powered the team for a decade.

But another Manu isn’t waiting in the wings. Anderson has been a quality defender, but he is slower than Christmas and lacks the ability to create his own shot. Bertans is a nice stretch 4, but his rebound rate is lower than Stephen Curry’s despite standing at 6’10″. And the player who holds a lot of the Spurs’ hopes as a future building block has not met expectations.

Twenty-one-year-old guard Dejounte Murray posted a promising rookie campaign despite limited opportunities, including averaging nearly 15 minutes per game in the playoffs. Many expected Murray to immediately win the starting spot from the aging Parker while the French guard was out with injury, but he shot 12.5 percent from behind the line and averaged 2.3 turnovers and only 4.0 assists in 19 starts. Now, given Parker’s limited effectiveness, the Spurs need Murray to show some of last season’s promise after once again winning the starting role.

The Verdict

So, which is it? Are the Spurs good enough to compete, or are they a product of some genius misdirection by Popovich?

Unfortunately, I’m going to ride the fence and say some truth exists on both sides. The defense will keep them competitive through the season’s end and the playoff’s opening round, but without a healthy Kawhi, they have only a slim chance at knocking off the Western Conference’s top seeds.

And the intrigue is what makes this all so interesting. The Kawhi injury and absence has been a news story for weeks now, but his health and timetable remain shrouded in mystery. If he can get back to the court, how will the distance and hurt feelings affect on-court chemistry? Spurs fans are hungry for another shot at a Western Conference Finals series with Golden State after Zaza Pachulia’s ill-timed closeout robbed them of their initial opportunity, but so much depends on the unknown status of their superstar.

Meanwhile, Aldridge and Co. will keep plugging along and will likely hit the 50-win mark for the 18th straight season, because that is what Popovich’s teams always do. No matter who is on the court, the Spurs will always have a chance as long as the greatest NBA coach of all time is sitting on the bench.

Follow Alex on Twitter @AlexWestNBA.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on January 31.