Don’t Look Now, But the NBA’s Balance of Power Might Soon Shift from the West to the East
It’s okay Warner Bros. You no longer need to film Space Jam 2.
The NBA has blessed us with many great storylines since the offseason, including a live sequel of the greatest basketball film in history unfolding before our eyes.
The Western Conference has been dominant for almost as long as many of us can remember, demolishing the Eastern Conference in head-to-head record for 17 of the past 18 seasons. The disparity between the two grew even more lopsided over the summer, when stars like Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Paul Millsap and Carmelo Anthony all switched sides.
Just like that, the West became the Monstars, while the East, already the laughing stock of the league, became downright looney.
This perceived imbalance even helped prompt a historical rule change. With the Western Conference winning the previous three All-Star tilts and six of the last seven, the league decided that, after 66 years, it was time to eliminate the East vs. West aspect of the marquee exhibition and turn instead to team captains. Sure, the East still has the best player alive in LeBron James, but he has coasted his way to seven consecutive Finals appearances, sweeping teams in early rounds with so much ease that they might as well literally be filled with Looney Tunes characters.
Just when all hope looks lost, though, the seemingly impossible occurs.
In Space Jam, the iconic scene where Bugs Bunny comes into the locker room at halftime represents a turning point. The Tune Squad is down 66-18 and looks like it’ll have no chance—until Bugs reveals a bottle of “Michael’s Secret Stuff:”
If LeBron is Michael Jordan in this scenario, then Joel Embiid—one of the most outspoken players in the league and someone we can always rely on for a good laugh—must be Bugs Bunny. But instead of carrying a bottle of “Michael’s Secret Stuff,” Embiid would present “Sam Hinkie’s Secret Stuff.”
General managers all over the East have taken chances in the past few years and received criticism for decisions initially deemed too risky or flat-out baffling. Unfortunately for Hinkie, he ended up getting fired for his gambles, but the effects of all these choices in the East, including his own, have started to take shape. The conference once perceived as a joke by every follower of the NBA is not only showing promise, but actually registers as the superior entity right now.
Twenty-five lineups that have over 100 minutes played this season possess a positive net rating. Fifteen of those units come from teams in the East. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the future of the Eastern Conference is incredibly bright. One glance at its prodigious young cores is all anyone needs.
The Boston Celtics, who boast the league’s best record, will be a serious force for years to come with Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford running the show. The Philadelphia 76ers have two players in Ben Simmons and Embiid who look like future MVP candidates, along with complementary young talent including Dario Saric, Robert Covington and this year’s first-overall pick, Markelle Fultz. The Washington Wizards employ three max players in John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter who have yet to hit their primes. The Toronto Raptors still have DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, and they’ve incorporated a rookie (OG Anunoby) and three second-year players (Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet) into their rotation. Even the Indiana Pacers’ return from the Paul George trade has yielded an auspicious foundation of Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner.
Oh, and don’t get me started on the Greek Freak in Milwaukee and the Unicorn in New York.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are the only team in the conference with an average age over 28, whereas four of the top seven teams in the West eclipse that yardstick.
The East, to be fair, isn’t solely responsible for this progression. The West simply hasn’t been particularly impressive early on. Typical playoff teams like the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers have become premier candidates to blow things up and rebuild. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who were primed to be the closest threat to the Golden State Warriors, have yet to figure things out. Their OK3 of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony has looked less than O.K. (sorry, not sorry), and they sit outside the playoff bubble. If they don’t find a way to right the ship soon, the trio likely wont stick together beyond this season.
The cores of the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans may also be susceptible to change. Jimmy Butler’s free agency looms for the ‘Wolves in 2019, while the verdict is still out on whether the Pelicans’ dynamic frontcourt duo of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins can be successful.
The West has experienced more than its fair share of injuries to key players, including Paul Millsap, Kawhi Leonard, Blake Griffin and Mike Conley. But the East hasn’t enjoyed particularly great luck either. Gordon Hayward suffered a season-ending injury in his Celtics debut, Isaiah Thomas is still hurt, and John Wall, D’Angelo Russell and Hassan Whiteside remain sidelined without specific timetables for returns.
Still not convinced the East can compete with the West right now? Well, feast on this:
According to Basketball Reference, seven of the top 12 teams in adjusted net rating come from the East. And, most importantly, the East leads in head-to-head matchups with the West, tallying a record of 84-79.
Knowing what we know now, maybe the All-Star Game didn’t need reformatting. Maybe the East wouldn’t just compete. Maybe it would actually win. After all, since the All-Star tilt’s inception, the conference that finished the season with a superior head-to-head record has won 44 out of 66 times.
Plus, we all know the Monstars don’t win in the end.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on Dec. 10.