Continuing our look at the have-nots of the NBA and when they might rejoin their rivals in postseason play, today we’ll be doing a deep dive on the Chicago Bulls.

We’ll be looking at their bevy of young players, cap sheet and every other relevant piece as we determine their playoff ETA. For the full details on just what is being examined, read our first entry in the series here.

Chicago Bulls: Last Playoff Appearance in 2016-17

Despite a near upset of the Boston Celtics in the 2017 playoffs, the Bulls front office decided to call it quits on the “Three Alphas’ era in the Windy City. Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler all landed with new organizations, and the team began its rebuilding phase in earnest.

The most significant move in that regard was the draft-day trade of home-grown talent Jimmy Butler and the No. 16 pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves. In return, the Bulls received Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and the pick that became Lauri Markkanen. Though painful and widely panned at the time, the trade in retrospect provided a solid foundation for future success. They pivoted sharply off the treadmill of mediocrity toward a full-on youth movement.

And perhaps most promisingly of all, they got bad.

Really, really bad.

Despite a recent surge, the Bulls own a 16-27 record and a compelling argument for having one of the three to five worst records come year’s end. That is unless Nikola Mirotic, aka Michael Jordan come again, has anything to say about it.

The 26-year-old power forward is finally putting together consistent play with an increased role, putting up 17.3 points and 6.9 rebounds per game with an effective field-goal percentage of 59.8 percent despite coming off the bench. And far from these being empty numbers, he leads the team in on-court net rating at 11.8. He’s sparked the Bulls to a 13-5 record when he’s played and would surely be a Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner if he hadn’t missed so much time.

Since his value has never been higher and he’s keeping a Bulls team afloat that would be better off somewhere near the ocean floor, trade rumors have swirled into a veritable maelstrom with the Utah Jazz, Detroit Pistons and others expressing interest. Complicating matters further is the fact that he would lose his Bird rights if he were traded. Therefore, Mirotic has the right to refuse any trade—unless the Bulls exercise his team option first.

Rightly, the Bulls are seeking to return a first-round pick and avoid adding any long-term money. Given Mirotic’s strong run of late, this seems a reasonable demand.

Moving on from Mirotic (and consequently losing more games) matters because not only do the Bulls own their first selection, but the recently passed lottery reform puts a premium on being bad this year above all others. And yet finishing last still only provides a 25 percent chance at the first pick and the opportunity to draft a franchise guy like Luka Doncic. Even if they land a stud in a Doncic or a Marvin Bagley, they will likely remain among the NBA’s very worst teams next season too. And with the odds flattening, it will be harder than ever to climb out of the lottery on the back of the draft alone.

That’s where the Butler trade looms large.

After trading for or acquiring Cameron Payne, Jerian Grant, Isaiah Canaan, Michael Carter-Williams and Rajon Rondo, they may finally have found their point guard of the future in Kris Dunn.

Dunn is certainly looking a lot better than his disappointing rookie campaign, but he is already 23 and is still posting a less than 50 percent effective field-goal percentage. Even that mark is a huge improvement on prior performance—and on every other guard the Bulls have had since pre-injury Derrick Rose—and there are indications that working with Fred Hoiberg, himself a noted shooter during his career, is making a difference.

He’s a dramatically improved mid-range jump shooter but is still struggling at the rim, shooting under 50 percent on layups:

But Dunn excels at creating a lot of transition opportunities for his teammates, rating fourth in steals per game:

Dunn’s certainly been up and down, but even his inconsistency is stable output relative to how the Bulls have filled his position recently.

Meanwhile, Zach LaVine, though he’s only just returned to play following an Achilles injury, has (Eastern Conference) All-Star ceiling. Serious questions remain about whether he can translate his hyper-athleticism and preternatural shooting touch into an all-around game.

At first blush, LaVine—outside of his Olympian-level vertical—seems unremarkable.

Indeed, in his absence, Justin Holiday and Denzel Valentine have filled in admirably on the wing, both shooting well from outside. But LaVine flashes one truly elite skill that the rest of the Bulls roster lacks, and it’s one that has never been more valuable than it is today: He is an elite pull-up jump-shooter.

Per Synergy, on no-dribble spot-ups, he produced an excellent 1.304 points per possession in 2016-17. Comparatively, in situations where Zach took a dribble jumper out of the pick-and-roll, normally much less efficient than open spot-ups, he produced 1.375 points per possession—simply a stunning mark:

He hit 55 of 96 registered jump shots overall for 57.3 percent, which is a better rate than many guards can hit at the rim:

This level of off-the-dribble shot-making is a facsimile of what Stephen Curry gives the Golden State Warriors; it bends the defense to its absolute breaking point and should allow his teammates to thrive in the resulting chaos. LaVine will need to improve greatly as a playmaker to maximize his value, but this kind of shooting can form the foundation of Fred Hoiberg’s offense.

Despite all those strengths, the 22-year-old shooting guard has been an incomplete player to date, and the Minnesota Timberwolves consistently performed better with him off the court. He had the second worst on-court net rating on the Wolves last year. But with better defenders around him and a larger role in the offense, LaVine should turn that trend around.

Lauri Markkanen, meanwhile, looks legit following a lot of pre-draft skepticism. After the hyper-dysfunctional episode between Mirotic and Bobby Portis, the rookie power forward was given the opportunity to shine early and often. He’s playing impressively, averaging 15.5 points per game and 7.5 rebounds on semi-efficient shooting splits, resulting in an effective field-goal percentage of 52.4 percent.

His shooting is as good as advertised, but he’s been a revelation off the dribble:

Some of this is tied to the steady performance of his teammate Robin Lopez. As Mike Prada documented for SB Nation during Kristaps Porzingis’ rookie campaign, Lopez is the kind of 5 who makes life significantly easier for a skinny stretch-4. Markkanen rebounds by nearly 7 percentage points better when on the floor with Robin Lopez vs. off, per NBAWowy. And in addition to his help on the glass, Lopez is in the top 10 in screen assists, providing a bevy of clean looks for his Finnish forward. So while Lauri is a gem of a rookie, Lopez is in part responsible for making him sparkle.

And Fred Hoiberg deserves significantly more credit than he has received for the team outperforming expectations. After spending what seems like his entire NBA coaching career on the hot seat, he finally has a young team capable of running the kind of tempo offense he had at Iowa State.

Hoiberg has gotten through to his players, and they’re responding with measurably better play. As pointed out by Stephen Noh of The Athletic, one of the biggest changes has been their leap in ATO play efficiency. After timeouts, teams normally perform worse than the average half-court set because opposing defenses are ready and waiting. Not only do the Bulls perform better in these scenarios, but they leap from an offensive rating ranked 29^th all the way to one that would slot in at No. 7. His coaching style may not have suited Jimmy Butler, but Hoiberg deserves credit for the progressively better play of his youthful roster.

After experiencing a downturn in Year 2, Bobby Portis could very well have been waived for his role in the creation of the NBA’s most surprising one-two punch combo. Instead, he’s putting together his finest stretch as a pro with career highs in nearly every statistical category, allowing him to emerge as another Hoiberg success story.

Not all the young guns are shining, though.

In particular, Cristiano Felicio has struggled mightily following the signing of a new four-year, $32 million contract. His scoring—never his forte—has cratered and now contributes to a team offensive rating 14.8 points worse when he’s on the court. His play has seen him tumble all the way from the starting lineup to the Windy City Bulls in the G-League.

As far as future cap space is concerned, Chicago is in good shape, even with the aforementioned Felicio contract.

Following the waiving of Kay Felder, they’re looking at about $15.9 million in room this offseason—the most in the league, per Bobby Marks. At the moment, the Bulls are operating as an over-the-cap franchise largely due to the buyouts of  Wade and Rondo.  Providing it doesn’t return multi-year salary with a Mirotic trade, it should reach max-level space for 2018 free agency. That makes the Bulls as players for second-tier guys like Kentavius Caldwell-Pope or Tyreke Evans, but they more likely opt to stay below the cap and rent out their room.

Just how much cap space they have will be determined by how they handle LaVine. He and the Bulls did not come to an extension agreement, which means he will enter restricted free agency in the offseason.

After making only around $9 million in his career, LaVine will look for a big payday. Chicago (naturally) will want to retain him on a team-friendly deal. Two powerful and opposing forces are at work here. On the one hand, the 2018 free-agency market will be a cap-starved environment likely even worse than 2017 was. On the other, the NBA is a wing-limited league, and players of LaVine’s age and upside rarely become available at less than the max to outside teams.

As an unrestricted free agent, Zach could expect to command above-average starter-level money. But because he is restricted—and with so few teams possessing flexibility—his chance to cash in is diminished. The Bulls could threaten to low-ball LaVine, but doing so might drive him to sign an untenable offer sheet or even risk the qualifying offer.

All young teams inevitably face similar risk versus reward scenarios. What makes this case unusual is that LaVine will have played fewer than 40 games for the Bulls by the time they need to make such a far-reaching decision for their franchise.

So the Bulls have promising young players, their first-round picks going forward and a cap record devoid of any especially ugly blemishes. And yet the Chicago fan base is the only one that can currently compete pound-for-pound with the New York Knicks’ faithful in terms of self-loathing.

And with good reason. Ownership and management have consistently demonstrated that they don’t care about winning at the highest level, don’t want to spend money to succeed and are happy to take shortcuts.

To that point, Jordan Bell is thriving for the Warriors while cash considerations is yet to make his first career appearance.

And yet, the front office has done well drafting and picking up talent off the scrap heap (David Nwaba being their most recent find). It also seems out of position to make any moves that would truly upset the balance of the rebuild. Yes, selling the rights to Bell was idiotic and short-sighted to the Nth degree, but the Bulls are just bad and young enough that even their myopic management can’t harm them too much at this stage of the game.

Still, the on-court product has a long way to catch up to the potential for this squad. Every player who figures to be in their future starting lineup is 23 or younger. Dunn and LaVine have a lot of improving to do before they can perform at a high level for a playoff-bound team, Markannen is a rookie and their first-round pick following this season will presumably play a large role as well. Growing pains are inevitable with a team so young, particularly once veteran support pieces like Lopez and Mirotic decline or get shipped out of town.

Chicago, however haphazardly, has picked a direction and committed to it. That, along with the greatest competitive advantage (e.g. being in the Eastern Conference) will mean a return to the playoffs—if not actual competency—sooner than might be expected.

Playoff Eta – 2020-21

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball-Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on January 15.