While most every fan base ultimately pines for a championship run, plenty of teams are desperate just to sneak into the playoffs.

In this series, we’re taking a look at a few of those 14 teams currently destined to miss the postseason and approximating when they might next break through. For some, their playoff drought is nearing an end. But for others, it is sadly just beginning.

To determine each team’s playoff ETA, we’ll be looking at everything from the current roster to front-office aptitude. For the full parameters we’ll be using to determine each team’s next likely playoff run, be sure to read our first entry in the series, which covered the Brooklyn Nets.

Phoenix Suns: Last Playoff Appearance  in 2009-10

I Don’t Wanna Be Here.

Can five words sum up the state of a franchise? If so, Eric Bledsoe’s desultory tweet on October 26 should earn consideration.

I Dont wanna be here

— Eric Bledsoe (@EBled2) October 22, 2017

This incarnation of the Phoenix Suns serves as a cautionary tale to all rebuilding teams. Their present doldrums are the result of a fated “too good, too soon” quagmire of their own making, followed by a series of critical missteps with internal talent evaluation. The 2013-14 squad was supposed to be awful, but the team caught fire by pairing its budding point-guard talents Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic with new head coach Jeff Hornacek’s free-flowing offense.

Despite 48 wins (!), the team missed the playoffs. It executed a sign-and-trade for Isaiah Thomas but managed to disgruntle all three of its starting-caliber point guards in the process. Remaining in their stead is the feeling of solemnity as they cut Brandon Knight’s cheque every year and wonder what might have been. The playoffs have never looked further away for a team that historically has spent little time at the bottom of the NBA pile.

But much like the mythical creature for which the city is named, signs point to in an eventual rebirth.

First and foremost is the play of the 13^th pick in the 2015 NBA draft, Devin Booker. Last year’s 70-point game became a battlefield between those who valued the mind-bending level of production from such a young talent and those who accused Booker (and the entire Suns team) of enabling proto-Westbrook stat-padding behavior in what was ultimately a losing effort.

Whatever side you fall on, the kid is a pure shooter:

At 21 years old, Booker is scoring just shy of 25 points per game with an effective field-goal percentage of 51.9 percent. Factoring in inevitable improvement as he gains experience, multiple All-Star games are in the cards for Booker.

He’s shown confidence well beyond his years:

The fan base has even taken to #TheTimeline as a way of preaching patience, internal growth and the further accumulation of draft talent—a kind of Process-lite moniker. Booker’s growth from No. 13 pick to unquestioned franchise guy is the blueprint.

Unfortunately, their other draft picks leave a lot to be desired. Fourth-year big man Alex Len was not extended and is playing on a qualifying offer. Marquese Chriss has been extremely disappointing, showing up (by his own admission) out of shape to training camp. He looked straight-up bad in summer league and, despite momentary flashes of brilliance, is performing worse in his second year than during his first.

The Suns took Dragan Bender with the No. 4 pick in 2016, hoping he would develop into a versatile star—a switchable big with genuine three-point range. Though the shooting has materialized, he’s shown great tentativeness in other aspects of his game. Bender is only 20, but he hasn’t made the strides toward stardom that fellow 2016 draftee Brandon Ingram has shown to date.

Meanwhile, this year’s No. 4 pick, Josh Jackson, has been invisible next to his fellow 2017 draftees. His comfortable 37.8 percent outside mark at Kansas notwithstanding, concerns about his shooting form abounded pre-draft. That has translated into a disastrous 24.4 percent from three in the NBA. And despite his vaunted athleticism, he is shooting less than 52 percent within five feet of the basket. Though defense is his calling card, his ceiling will fall well short of stardom and become disappointing for such a high pick if he can’t score.

These three guys are all just 20 years old. They will improve. But the Suns can’t be confident they already have a running mate to pair with Booker who will get them among the top eight in the west. That likely means drafting or trading for one.

And their history in those departments isn’t exactly inspiring. Ownership and management have made repeated mistakes managing assets. Hindsight is 20/20, but starting with choices involving Isaiah Thomas, Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Brandon Knight, Phoenix misjudged disastrously to end up with five years of Knight.

But a few bright spots stand out amid the gloom. During Booker’s recent absence due to a groin injury, journeyman sniper Troy Daniels stepped into a larger role on offense and has potentially earned a utility role with the team going forward.

Even if you are unfamiliar with Daniel’s work, you might recall this:

This play was not an aberration. Troy Daniels is scorched earth as a shooter. He only plays 17.9 minutes per game but is getting up just over five threes and hitting them at a 42.5 percent clip. He even had 240 made three’s in one season for the G-League record.

The guy gets buckets:

He is by far the best shooter on the team and among the best in the league, producing 1.39 points per possession on spot-ups. Daniels is good enough to have his own gravity if he gets the right plays, and he’s willing. He studies players like Kyle Korver and J.J. Redick not for their shooting form, but to emulate how they move off-ball. And the coaching staff is starting to make use of him in more of a Korver-esque role:

Daniels is a little older than most of the young pups on the Suns. But as the saying goes, shooters can shoot forever.

Newly inked to a four-year $50 million deal, T.J. Warren fits #TheTimeline a bit better and is Daniels’ mirror image as a scorer. Warren shoots a paltry 17.7 percent from downtown, but he manages almost 20 points per night on good efficiency. Among the league’s premier cutters, Warren slashes to the hoop and backdoors sleeping opponents every game:

His shot chart tells the tale. If he gets into the key, he’s deadly.

And he gets there all the time.

Just how committed is the front office to building for the ultimate goal? Though it’s been firmly in tank mode the past two seasons, it has attempted to sign a marquee free agent at every opportunity, including, most recently, Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge. At any moment, it would sooner opt for a quick fix toward relevancy than a sustainable plan of action. Maybe that means the Suns return to the playoffs quicker, or maybe it means they waste all their time at the bottom without acquiring a superstar to go with Booker.

Phoenix currently has only $8 million in space—notable for a team laser-focused on development and long-term building. Greg Monroe, Brandon Knight, Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley currently eat up around 60 percent of its total cap space.  None of these players figure to be with the team the next time it makes a playoff run. This isn’t to say these players have no value (though to be clear, in trades, they wouldn’t) as Dudley and Chandler in particular play important mentoring roles for an otherwise inexperienced roster.

And yet it won’t be until 2019-20, when they renounce Chandler and Dudley’s cap holds, that the Suns will have the requisite space to swing for a max-level free agent. Of course, that’s if they optimally manage Booker’s next deal. The shooting guard is extension eligible this summer, and all signs point to him receiving a maximum offer.

A max contract for Booker would be 25 percent of the salary cap, which is projected to be $108 million in 2019-20. That means a starting salary of $27 million that closes in on a $35 million payday in 2023-24. Yes, that makes for a total of $156.6 million over five years.

If the Suns are intent on maxing Booker, as it seems they are, they face a real opportunity cost if they choose to retain him via extension as opposed to offering him the max during restricted free agency. They will be tying up 25 percent of their cap space, rather than first using that flexibility on a free agent and then re-signing Booker (and going over the cap) via Bird rights. Recall that the Spurs did not extend Kawhi Leonard, but rather waited until he hit restricted free agency to sign him—and then only after they had signed Aldridge.

This is only a risk if:

A: They believe they can negotiate for less on an extension and don’t intend to offer Booker the max.

Or…

B: They’re not confident that the promise of a maximum offer in restricted free agency will keep Booker from signing a shorter-term offer sheet with another franchise (see: Hayward, Gordon) or one with additional unfavorable clauses.

The former seems completely off the table, and the Suns should be able to nail down the latter before extension time.

However, if they are dead set on extending Booker rather than waiting for restricted free agency, getting out from Brandon Knight’s remaining two years and $30 million should be a priority. That way they can add approximately $33 million in space for this offseason when Monroe comes off the books. But that route would likely cost a first-round pick, while waiting out Booker’s extension costs nothing but carries the potential for risk.

In addition to owning all their own picks going forward, the accumulation of a veritable warchest is working in Phoenix’s favor. 

Though guilty of making moves that ultimately drove  Dragic out of town, the Suns did extract two first-round picks from the Miami Heat in the process. In total, they are owed three first-rounders—two from the Heat and another from the Milwaukee Bucks (the protections on which are structured such that it may not convey until 2021).

If the current roster and whomever they draft with their own picks follow an average development path, they should already be competing for a playoff berth by 2021. Assets that can be acquired even as the team improve—particularly those on rookie-scale contracts—have incredible value. Though the picks clearly aren’t of the same caliber, this kind of mid-growth replenishment is what facilitated Boston’s meteoric rise to prominence.

Phoenix has been one of the worst teams in the league the past few seasons, but its time at the bottom is nearing an end. If it can avoid handing out any bad deals or needlessly giving away assets, it should be in the postseason in five years’ time.

As long as the front office stays the course and follows #TheTimeline, the Suns will be the next Western Conference team to end a protracted playoff absence.

Playoff Eta – 2022-23

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball-Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on January 4.