In a league where more than half of all teams make the playoffs, it can still be agony for fans to have their hopes dashed year to year. Contending is the ultimate goal, but long before that, the road to the playoffs can be grueling in and of itself.

The wait can be interminable—even more so when there isn’t any clear idea of how long it will last. Does light exist at the end of the tunnel? Teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics promise years of relevancy, but their path has been far from assured and fraught with potential crises.

We’re going to take stock of a few teams presently on the outside of the playoffs looking in, some trending up, some trending down and at least one somewhere in between. They’ll be evaluated by a set of factors that, ultimately, coalesce into a Playoff ETA for each. Nothing, essentially, is off-limits. Everything from ownership and the current roster, to their cap sheet, draft-pick cupboard and front-office acumen will be in play.

Up first: the Brooklyn Nets.

Parameters for Determining Playoff ETA

Ownership

Poverty is the death of planning. Organizations concerned with the viability of their franchise can’t afford to commit to the kind of tanking in which The Process Sixers engaged. Others might make rash moves that compromise their ability to compete, both now and in the future. Will they pay the luxury tax? Do they prefer sycophants or free-thinkers? Answers to all these questions dramatically affect the trajectory of a team.

Front Office

Ultimate power lies with ownership, but the day-to-day grind by a general manager, team president or whatever the hell suits in charge are calling themselves these days can still make or break a franchise.

Cap Space

Flexibility is essential when building a contender but similarly matters when building a moderately competitive team. Mismanaging a cap sheet has killed many a promising rebuild before it had a chance to emerge from its chrysalis all butterfly-like.

The Current Roster

Developing your incumbent prospects into stars (should that be possible, obviously) is the most efficient path back to the playoffs. Hoping you already have players who, as currently constituted, can be top-notch contributors on a postseason roster is the next best route—and a far riskier one at that.

Future Picks Owed/Incoming

The draft is the best option among imperfect methods for getting better at the bottom. Owning more inbound picks than outbound selections will speed up the process.

Brooklyn Nets: Last Playoff Appearance in 2014-15

The Nets own the greatest gulf in the league between talent and front-office competency. This, mind you, is purely circumstantial at this point, as the current regime has little to do with the dilapidated state in which the franchise finds itself. Plus, with a 13-23 record, the Nets are more promising than they’ve been in years.

No, seriously.

General manager Sean Marks inherited the single worst basketball situation in recent memory and among the most terrible during the NBA’s modern era. Following three consecutive years of not controlling their own pick, with the one of the league’s lowest winning percentages during that time, they will not be able to make use of their own first-round pick until 2019.

Russian oligarchs have enjoyed success spending their way to victory in Premier League soccer (see: Football Club, Chelsea). But the NBA’s soft cap put significant constraints on the unwise all-in strategy that culminated with the acquisitions of over-the-hill Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as sidekicks to Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson. The directive from owner Mikhail Prokhorov was to win now.

And it cost the Nets control of their first-round picks from 2014 to 2018.

Marks was hired in February of 2017 to, quite literally, make something out of nothing. Out of the entire roster he inherited, only Rondae Hollis-Jefferson remains with the team. He’s made several calculated gambles, signed a plethora of offer sheets and collected all types of assets by smartly managing the team’s cap space.

Chief among those prized investments: D’Angelo Russell, who will be expected to carry the torch for the franchise and hopefully put an end to its protracted dark age.

Prior to his injury and Victor Oladipo’s revenge campaign, Russell was considered smart money for the Most Improved Player award for 2017-18. In the 12 games played prior to injury, he certainly showed an ability to score in bunches and facilitate, showing the growth one expects from a highly touted third-year guard. But even putting aside knee concerns, which currently have him sidelined for the foreseeable future, gaping holes remain in his game. And that’s not even considering his defense, which is bad. Even as an offensive player, Russell leaves a lot desired.

He is only shooting 29.5 percent from three and far too many are trailing three-pointers in transition, foregoing passing opportunities to dime up Allen Crabbe in the corner or teammates rolling to the rim:

Russell has improved his finishing around the hoop, but he still too often opts for a high-degree-of-difficulty floater when he can’t get right to the basket:

It could be that he’s afraid of contact or simply lacking in the necessary explosion to beat rotating bigs. When he does beat a paint defender, it’s with handle and craft:

So while he has an array of impressive moves, they don’t yet make up for his lack of ability to drive and finish consistently against competent rim-protectors. If he can’t do that, as well as make his three-pointers at a high rate, he’ll struggle to become the star the Nets desperately need.

In the Russell deal, the team gave up the majority of its cap flexibility by taking on Timofey Mozgov’s contract.  And most of the rest was used to take on DeMarre Carroll from the Toronto Raptors and Allen Crabbe from the Portland Trail Blazers in salary-dumping moves. In Crabbe specifically, the Nets acquired a player perfectly suited for Kenny Atkinson’s scheme—a knockdown three-point shooter with some situational dribble-drive juice. The Carroll deal netted them Toronto’s first-rounder this year, as well as an additional second-rounder.

Despite renting out much of their cap space, the Nets project to have around $4 million in room. That flexibility fades fast if they look to re-sign Jahlil Okafor or Nik Stauskas, their midseason trade acquisitions from the Philadelphia 76ers. If they do use that space, they become functionally capped out through 2019-20 when Mozgov, Crabbe and Deron Williams (finally) come off the books to the tune of $40 million freed. But other decisions—including whether or not to extend Rondae Hollis-Jefferson—will determine just how much room with which  they have to work. Rondae has shown steady improvement but might never be good enough to be a starter on a contending team. Still, small forwards are hard to find, so the Nets should at least see if they can ink a team-friendly extension.

They’ll also have to make a decision about Spencer Dinwiddie that year, who may become a luxury item if Russell proves out as a true star option at the 1.

That would be a bitter pill to swallow given Dinwiddie’s development. In two seasons for the Nets, he’s brought a level of workman-like competence to his role as a backup. And now averaging 6.5 assists with an effective field-goal percentage just under 50 percent, it’s surprising just how good he’s been while thrust into the starting point guard role. He is getting up three-point shots at a ridiculous clip, jumping from 1.7 per game to a Lou Williams-esque 5.6 attempts per contest this season.

He’s also shown great patience in the pick-and-roll. And when Russell returns, the two will likely take on the dual ball-handling role originally envisioned for Russell and Lin. That, in turn, will allow both to work off cuts and increase their share of spot-ups versus pull-ups, making them both more efficient.

Even if Dinwiddie and Hollis-Jefferson don’t return or come back cheaply, it remains unlikely the Nets will have the combination of free-agency appeal and cap space to pick up a top-tier free agent in 2020. It might suit their timeline better to double down on the Mozgov strategy and pursue yet another future castoff in exchange for their available space. This might not be glamorous, but it’s exactly the kind of incremental asset-collection at which Marks has excelled in his time at the helm.

Also courtesy of Marks, the Nets have one significant edge in their quest to return to the playoffs: coaching. Atkinson, plucked from his role as a player-development sage on the Atlanta Hawks University tree, has his work cut out for him.

Outside the aforementioned Russell, Dinwiddie and Jefferson, the Nets have a few prospects Atkinson is working to mold into rotation players, including Caris LeVert, Isaiah Whitehead and Jarrett Allen.

LeVert has struggled during his second year following a post -All-Star push that had the former No. 20 pick showing real potential. His 60 percent true shooting percentage for December hopefully demonstrates that his touch has returned heading into the New Year, but his overall efficiency is only now approaching his rookie season averages—which lets you know just how poorly he started off. In the absence of Jeremy Lin and D’Angelo Russell, he has been asked to take on the role of backup point guard to Dinwiddie, and he’s had success attacking the basket by scoring nearly 60 percent of his looks within five feet of the hoop. Though inconsistent, he’s flashed some impressive stuff:

Isaiah Whitehead is splitting time between the Long Island Nets and the big leagues, appearing in 10 games for Brooklyn so far. Similar to Dinwiddie, the Nets are using the G-League to foster Whitehead’s growth, and he’s showing signs. In addition to a strong lower body, he’s demonstrated significant growth as a marksman in Year 2.

And Allen, a rail-thin 19-year-old center, is looking to model his game after Clint Capela as a rim-running, shot-blocking 5. The coaching staff has so far refrained from giving Allen time in the G-League, opting instead for a trial-by-fire approach in his rookie season. Given the similarly in scheme between the Houston Rockets and what Atkinson is building, Capela is the ideal player for Allen to strive toward replicating.

Beyond his proven player-development abilities, Atkinson has also demonstrated an aptitude for installing efficient offensive constructs.

The Nets are third in free-throw-attempt rate, despite their two best penetrating guards in Jeremy Lin and Russell being out with injuries. They have the second-lowest percentage of points from two-point attempts, behind only the NBA’s All-Future Team (the Rockets). And they rank third in percentage of field-goal attempts coming as threes.

Bereft of proven talent as the Nets are, Atkinson’s schemes give his team a shot to win against superior players. As their roster improves, it’s easy to see how they will quickly become competitive. For though they emphasize the three-ball within their game-plan, most of the available roster just isn’t effective at shooting it; they rank 27th in three-point percentage.

All this, of course, assumes the Nets stay healthy. Lin, in theory, gave Brooklyn the kind of guard who would open up the floor for everyone around him, but he’s now suffered season-ending injuries in back-to-back years. And Russell, after a very promising start, underwent knee surgery that will have him out until early January. And LeVert was only available to the Nets at No. 20 because of repeated stress injuries that plagued him during his years at Michigan.

The Nets could well make the playoffs before any of their own lottery picks come to fruition, but it’s unclear what ownership’s priorities will be. Marks has done an admirable job assembling a team culled from the Island of Misfit Toys, but turning trash into treasure will only take them so far. With a well-managed cap and development from Russell, Dinwiddie and Crabbe, the Nets could make the playoffs. But if ownership has bigger dreams, they will need to stay bad long enough for it to pay off with one or two top-five picks of their own.

Which path ownership will take remains unclear, in part because who ownership will be is unclear.

In the aftermath of the disastrous Celtics trade, Prokhorov has appeared mostly hands-off, even going so far as to sell a significant portion of the team. And the new minority owner will have the option to purchase a controlling stake in 2021—akin to even more uncertainty.

On the one hand, Prokhorov is having a ruinous tenure as owner. On the other, the Celtics trade was such an unmitigated disaster that the Nets trampled right through the five stages of grief, jumping to “acceptance” in about a two-year period. And self-awareness is an underrated trait in front-office decision-makers. A team that knows it can’t compete right away stands a much better chance over the long haul.

And that steady approach from Marks looks to have the Nets sneak into the playoffs three years from now. They might not land a top-tier free agent with their new-found space in 2020, but they’ve shown great discipline and creativity in getting value for their cap. That, along with their solid coaching, front office acumen and a developing collection of young talent, points to a return whether or not they’re able to draft a top-five talent. Ultimately, ownership will decide just how far Marks’ “The Replacements” version of the Nets will go, but it seems unlikely after so many lost years that either Prokhorov or new ownership would mandate additional losing seasons.

Will the Nets have the stomach to regress and finally make the picks commensurate with their performance? Or will ownership, new or old, issue fresh win-now edicts that draw them away from the opportunity to build a genuine contender?

For Nets fans’ sake, pray for the former.

Playoff Eta – 2020-21

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball-Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on January 1.