How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
2. End-of-Bench Pieces
3. Depth Pieces
4. High-End Backups
5. Low-End Starters
6. Solid Starters
7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
8. All-Star Candidates
9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
10. Lesser MVP Candidates
11. MVP Frontrunners
12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Milwaukee Bucks, whose young core has them ready to surge up the Eastern Conference standings.

18. JeQuan Lewis: 1.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 15.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.1 blocks, 156.35 TPA (for VCU Rams)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

A pass-first point guard throughout his collegiate career, JeQuan Lewis finally started taking over games as a scorer during his senior season at VCU. He averaged a career-high 15.2 points, and it never seemed as if he was sacrificing efficiency for the sake of undertaking more offensive responsibility. After all, he still shot 43.1 percent from the field, 36.7 percent from downtown and 81.8 percent at the stripe—right in line with his career averages.

But the NBA is a different beast, and he’ll now have to make the most of his speed while attempting to work his way past bigger, better, stronger, faster defenders. That’s not an easy task, but Lewis does have plenty of upside on the offensive end if he continues improving his shot and keeps foes off balance with his dual-threat nature.

17. James Young: 1.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.3 points, 0.9 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-13.75 TPA (for Boston Celtics)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Remember when James Young was the No. 17 pick of the 2014 NBA draft?

That seems like forever ago now, especially since the Kentucky product has been virtually invisible throughout his professional career. In fact, if you mixed together all his career highs in each of the major box-score categories, he’d produce 13 points, five rebounds, three assists, three steals and a single block. That’s not exactly ideal after three years with the Boston Celtics.

Young doesn’t have the size or quickness necessary to thrive defensively against any specific position, and his ball-handling just hasn’t improved. He’s limited to spot-up duties, and that’s a dangerous game for a player who hasn’t justified enough run to work up a positive rhythm.

16. Gary Payton II: 1.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 3.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.7 blocks, minus-13.06 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Gary Payton II, as you might have guessed from his last name, is a defensive menace. He prides himself on playing pestilent defense, always grinding out possessions and forcing opponents to work hard for their points. He’s also a terrific athlete whose springy athleticism allows him to contest shots from behind and clean the defensive glass after forcing a miss—seriously, he averaged 4.4 defensive boards per 36 minutes as a 6’3″ rookie last year.

But Payton struggles shooting the ball, and that limits how much he can play at the NBA level. Without a working jumper or the ability to connect on pull-up jumpers, he can clog up his own offensive sets and mitigate the impact of his pesky preventing efforts. The shot seemed to come around a bit during four outings at Las Vegas Summer League, but this is still an uphill battle for both respect and legitimate playing time.

15. Sterling Brown: 1.88

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 13.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 176.56 TPA (for SMU Mustangs)
• Highest Grade: 3 (Dan Favale)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Emmy winner Sterling Brown might not have the quickest release, but it’s smooth and consistent. Perhaps even more importantly, he gets good elevation on his shots and seems to let fly at the ideal time before gravity pulls him back to the hardwood, allowing him to rise and fire in the face of tight defense. That should serve him well as he makes the transition to the NBA, because his role should be as a sharpshooter off the pine.

The No. 46 pick of the most recent prospect pageant, Brown is coming off a season for the SMU Mustangs in which he connected on 44.9 percent of his triples while taking 3.9 per game. And this isn’t a fluke. During his junior campaign, he hit 53.6 percent of his looks and fired away 1.9 times per contest.

Sure, he has quick hands on defense. He’s also shown an ability to crash the glass and initiate a fast break. But he’s a shooter first and foremost.

14. Rashad Vaughn: 2.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 3.5 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-44.18 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

How much does summer league matter?

If you think it’s a telling trial for younger players, you might be on board with Rashad Vaughn carving out a larger role in the Milwaukee rotation. The 21-year-old shooting guard finally seemed to put some pieces together, averaging 16.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.4 blocks while slashing 51.7/30.0/50.0.

But the pessimists (or realists?) might look at the last two shooting percentages while also noting previous performances. That was only a five-game sample, and Vaughn has posted big counting stats during each of his past two summer-league go-rounds. They just didn’t lead to him making any sort of notable impact as a rookie or second-year wing, as he stayed glued to the bench and struggled to find his shot when he was finally granted some run.

He remembered how to finish at the rim in 2016-17, but even that won’t matter if he can’t carry over the newfound shooting confidence to cancel out his limitations in so many other areas.

13. Brandon Rush: 2.38

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, minus-42.63 TPA (for Minnesota Timberwolves)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Dan Favale)

Brandon Rush is no longer an exciting prospect. Now 32 years old and preparing to play for his fourth team in the last five years, he’s just searching for continuity and a place where he can earn a consistent role. That’ll be hard to find with so many incumbent options and youngsters competing for more Brewtown minutes.

The shooting guard is still a quality floor-spacing option, but what else does he offer? Without the elite athleticism he possessed in his younger days, he’s been mediocre or worse on the preventing end. He’s still not a strong facilitator, and his impact is largely limited to spot-up work on the wings. At this stage, he just may not be versatile enough to offer the upside Milwaukee would need to take away action from one of the younger, comparable options at the 2.

12. Jason Terry: 2.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 40
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.1 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-29.56 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Fun fact: Jason Terry shared a sandbox with Father Time while they were growing up in the same neighborhood, and they constantly fought over who’d get to use the coveted blue shovel. But they eventually patched up their differences and became steadfast friends, which is why the latter has left the former’s career alone and allowed him to remain a productive player even as he moves into his fourth decade on the planet.

Good ol’ Papa Time still took some elements of Terry’s game away, though. It wasn’t vindictive, so much as inevitable. He couldn’t allow the 2-guard’s game to remain totally unbesmirched and let his other aged friends grow green with envy. Fortunately, he conceded continued excellence from beyond the arc, to the tune of 2.3 attempts per game and a 42.7 percent clip in 2016-17.

Terry finished the season scoring 1.3 points per spot-up possession, which left him in the 96.8 percentile. So long as he can replicate those numbers—or even limit the regression—he’ll continue to earn important bench minutes for the Bucks.

11. D.J. Wilson: 2.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 11.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks, 173.44 TPA (for Michigan Wolverines)
• Highest Grade: 4 (Tony East)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

What kind of music will D.J. Wilson play within the friendly confines of the BMO Harris Bradley Center? Will he stick to the modern-day staples? Throw in some old-schoo…

What’s that? He’s not a disk jockey? D.J. is short for DeVante Jaylen? Whoops! 

When he’s on the floor, this Michigan product should put his versatility on full display, showing—if only momentarily—the immense upside in all areas that made Milwaukee reach for his services with the No. 17 pick of the 2017 NBA draft. He’s a raw prospect who needs to add strength before he can withstand the rigors of an NBA calendar, but his ability to knock down triples, block shots as a help-defender and properly fill lanes in transition should all play well from the get-go.

Given that the Bucks taking him off the board just outside the lottery was a surprise,  it shouldn’t be even remotely surprising that opinions from our panelists varied widely, ranging from claims that he shouldn’t receive any minutes to pegging him as a high-end backup during his rookie campaign.

10. Mirza Teletovic: 3.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-109.3 TPA
• Unanimous Grade: 3

With the exception of training-camp additions who will struggle to make active rosters, only three players in the entire #CrystalBasketball project received unanimous scores from all 16 panelists: Tyler Zeller, Mirza Teletovic and Jonas Jerebko. All three were viewed solely as depth pieces for their respective squads, since it’s fairly easy to peg exactly who’ll they’ll be in 2017-18.

Teletovic isn’t an adept defender, though his foot speed at least allows him to switch on some screens when dragged out to the perimeter. He’s never going to thrive in the post, though his drop step is an underrated weapon the Bucks could eventually figure out how to feature more prominently.

Above all else, he’s a floor-spacing stretch 4 who thrives off the bench as a three-point option. It’s simple as that.

9. John Henson: 3.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.3 blocks, minus-4.42 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

At this point, it might be time to give up on John Henson’s upside. The Bucks have made the message clear: No matter how many times he appears on underrated lists and seems capable of handling more minutes, they’ve been stubbornly resistant to expanding his role. And now that he’s been under organizational control for five full seasons and hasn’t logged even 20 minutes per game for three consecutive campaigns,  that has to be for a reason.

Perhaps it’s because, for all his shot-blocking prowess and defensive work on the interior, he’s never developed a consistent offensive game. Though he showed flashes of mid-range potential during his time at North Carolina, he’s still shooting, with no signs of coming improvement, just 28.1 percent from 10-to-16 feet and 24.5 percent on even longer twos throughout his professional career, .

The offensive versatility just isn’t there, which means he’s best deployed only in the right situations.

8. Matthew Dellavedova: 3.25

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 7.6 points, 1.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 0.7 steals, minus-183.77 TPA
• Highest Grade: 5 (Louie Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Though Matthew Dellavedova could make a starter-caliber impact, he’s best served coming off the pine. He was miscast as the Milwaukee Bucks’ lead point guard before Malcolm Brogdon took over down the stretch run, largely because his skills were better used in off-ball scenarios and in smaller doses against opposing backups.

Incapable of generating steals or staying in front of quicker guards without the benefit of utilizing his energy in shorter spurts and serving as a physical pest, the Australian floor general graded out terribly in many defensive metrics. ESPN.com’s defensive real plus/minus, for example, had him as a distinctly negative presence who sat at No. 47 among point guards only. Couple that with an inability to shoot from inside the arc (40.4 percent on two-pointers), and you have a two-way liability.

Dellavedova should go back to the role he once filled for the Cleveland Cavaliers, coming off the pine to provide some spot-up shooting and nagging defense. Here’s hoping the Bucks don’t have to ask him to do anything more.

7. Thon Maker: 4.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 20
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 0. 4 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, minus-16.59 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (Dan Favale)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Let’s first turn to The Ringer’s Jonathan Tjarks, who pointed out just how many unique elements Thon Maker possesses as this young stage of his career. “The most intriguing aspect of Maker’s game is his ball skills. He’s not the next Kevin Durant as the mixtapes made him out to be, but he can put the ball on the floor and get by bigger defenders when they crowd him. A 7-footer with a jumper, handle and quick first step is almost unguardable, and Maker showed flashes of all three as a rookie.”

To be clear, none of Maker’s skills are fully developed.

They show up in momentary flashes, hinting at lengthier durations and future domination. Just take his first-round playoff series as a rookie, in which he couldn’t quite push Milwaukee past the Toronto Raptors but averaged 5.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.8 blocks per game while shooting—and this is where it gets uglier—just 38.7 percent from the field and 20.0 percent from downtown. He can do a ton of different things. He just won’t always do them particularly well at this point in his growth curve.

Maker might not currently stand out in one distinct area, unless that area is his preternatural versatility. And that’s the most important, unicorn-creating aspect of all.

6. Tony Snell: 4.63

• Age at start of 2017-18: 25
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 8.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-41.39 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (Dan Favale)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (Nick Birdsong)

A series of transactions says it all.

Prior to the 2016-17 season, the Bucks sent Michael Carter-Williams to the Chicago Bulls for Tony Snell’s services. The Windy City needed nothing more than a middling point guard who’d spend only one season with the organization. After the campaign ended, Milwaukee re-signed Snell to a four-year deal worth $46 million, while the former Rookie of the Year fled Chicago for the Charlotte Hornets, with whom he’s now playing on a one-year pact for $2.7 million.

For all of Snell’s struggles with the Bulls, he found a home after the trade. His hot shooting during the season’s second half and the brief playoff run solidified that newfound status as a lineup staple, proving to the world that he could be an off-ball offensive force while using his size and length to wreak havoc in passing lanes on the other end.

5. Greg Monroe: 4.81

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 11.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks, 71.79 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

A trimmed-down version of Greg Monroe proved quite effective.

Though he remained out of the starting lineup all season and took a while to fully accept his role, he provided substantial value once he did. Showcasing newfound explosion on the defensive end that allowed him to contest more shots, close out on spot-up foes and jump into passing lanes, he became a two-way asset who understood how to leverage his combination of physicality and finesse on the scoring end. The Bucks actually saw their net rating improve by 6.9 points per possession with him on the floor, thanks to  positive strides on both ends.

Monroe hasn’t been and will never be a high-quality rim-protector, but his other strengths make up for that major flaw. And if he can continue to expand his shooting range and start knocking down a couple treys—he went 0-of-4 in 2016-17 and has now missed all 12 deep attempts in his career—like he does mid-range jumpers, he’ll more than justify the four voters who viewed him as a solid starter.

4. Malcolm Brogdon: 5.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: PG/SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-15.61 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (Arjun Baradwaj)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

The reigning Rookie of the Year might not seem to have a particularly high ceiling. Already 24 years old, he could have some difficulty adding too many new elements to his game, even as he adjusts to the NBA’s style of play. That’s likely why just one voter viewed him as a high-end starter, while six more pegged him one tier lower.

But that’s fine.

Brogdon’s floor is rather lofty, since he’s a cerebral player who already displays a smooth feel when he’s on the court. Few veteran players possess the ability to set the tempo and play as if they’re always in full control of the action, but this Virginia product already did so as a first-year floor general. He never forced the issue, but instead took what was given to him and limited his mistakes on both ends while putting an improved shot on display in both pull-up and spot-up situations.

He could make another leap if he becomes more adept at finishing around the rim and improves the speed of his release, but even stagnation would leave him in fantastic shape as a second-round draft steal.

3. Jabari Parker: 6.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks, 10.2 TPA
• Highest Grade: 8 (Eric Spyropoulos)
• Lowest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)

Before he tore an ACL for the second time, Jabari Parker looked like he was tracking toward a prominent finish in the Most Improved Player race. He was increasingly holding his own defensively when given the opportunity to play interchangeably against both small forwards and power forwards, and his shooting stroke showcased serious strides.

Parker didn’t just score 20.1 points per game before his injury; he did so while knocking down 49.0 percent of his field-goal attempts, 36.5 percent of his deep looks and 74.3 percent of his freebies, which he took with increased frequency. Considering he slashed 49.3/25.7/76.8 in 2015-16, it’s not particularly difficult to see from where the main improvements stemmed.

Combine all the shooting numbers, and Parker was a 20-point-scorer with a 56.3 true shooting percentage—numbers only 12 other players have matched or exceeded during or before their age-21 seasons. And because the list is so impressive, we’re going to list them all out for you: Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Adrian Dantley, Anthony Davis, John Drew, Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O’Neal and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Now that is some noteworthy company.

2. Khris Middleton: 6.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-10.5 TPA
• Highest Grade: 8 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)

Khris Middleton was only healthy for 29 games, but he demonstrated his immense two-way value during that brief run. This swingman can simply contribute in every area, whether he’s serving as a defensive stopper against fellow wings, a secondary playmaker, a floor-spacing option or a man capable of creating his own offense. That’s why the Bucks saw their net rating jump from minus-1.5 to 5.6 when he was on the court.

ESPN.com’s RPM was similarly positive. With a strong score on both sides of the ball, Middleton sat behind only seven other shooting guards—actually regression upon his No. 2 finish in 2014-15 and No. 4 showing in 2015-16. Given that mathematical progression, we should technically expect him to rank No. 16 among his positional peers in 2017-18, which was a spot occupied by Wayne Ellington this past season.

But that’s not how basketball works, and we can safely say far bigger things are expected from a healthy Middleton. Every single one of our voters viewed him as at least a solid starter, with two operating under the belief that he could emerge as a distinct All-Star candidate in his age-26 go-round.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 10.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: SG/SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.9 blocks, 425.68 TPA
• Highest Grade: 11 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 10 (multiple voters)

Let’s play a game. Who were the five closest qualified players to each of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s individual per-game tallies? We’re ignoring shooting percentages and defense here, so just know that this positionless stud justifiably made the All-Defensive Second Team while playing with incredible efficiency.

• Points: Carmelo Anthony, C.J. McCollum, John Wall, Bradley Beal, Kemba Walker
• Rebounds: Zach Randolph, Kevin Durant, Julius Randle, LeBron James, Tristan Thompson
• Assists: Ish Smith, Tim Frazier, Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler, Deron Williams
• Steals: Russell Westbrook, Marcus Smart, Paul George, Tony Allen, Ricky Rubio
• Blocks: Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan, Kristaps Porzingis, Hassan Whiteside, Myles Turner

You could justifiably claim Antetokounmpo scored like McCollum, grabbed boards like Thompson, dished out dimes like Walker, stole the rock away like Rubio and swatted shots like Whiteside. And no matter how unbelievable that combination may be, you wouldn’t be wrong.

But here’s the scariest part: This 22-year-old superstar is only getting better and has worked his way toward the fringes of MVP contention without a consistent three-point stroke. What if that develops in 2017-18? Do you really want to rule out that type of growth?

 

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo