How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
2. End-of-Bench Pieces
3. Depth Pieces
4. High-End Backups
5. Low-End Starters
6. Solid Starters
7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
8. All-Star Candidates
9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
10. Lesser MVP Candidates
11. MVP Frontrunners
12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Memphis Grizzlies, who are trying to remain competitive even while (potentially) moving past the grit-and-grind identity.

17. Rade Zagorac: 1.63

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 14.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks (for KK Mega Bemax)
• Highest Grade: 3 (Dan Favale)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Rade Zagorac has the size necessary to play either on the wings or as a stretch 4 in smaller lineups for the Grizzlies. In either situation, he’ll have to hustle as relentlessly as he did throughout summer league, committing to a non-glamorous role that involves spacing the floor and rebounding the ball with tenacity.

Fortunately for Memphis, the 22-year-old who was picked in the second round of the 2016 NBA draft has the skills necessary to do exactly that. During his time with KK Mega Bemax in 2016-17, he averaged 7.8 rebounds per 36 minutes but shot only 33.3 percent from beyond the arc. That latter number does seem like an aberration after he connected at a 37.3 percent clip in 2015-16 and 37.4 percent in 2014-15.

But he has to prove it now.

16. Ivan Rabb: 1.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 20
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 14.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.0 blocks, 112.38 TPA (for California Golden Bears)
• Highest Grade: 3 (Nick Birdsong)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

To be clear, we’re assuming the Grizzlies and Ivan Rabb work through their contract issues and eventually come to an agreement. Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated reported that they’re close to a three-year deal, and that’s good enough for us—at least for the time being.

Just don’t expect too much from this California product during his rookie season. Thanks to injuries and a relatively raw game, he’ll likely spend plenty of time in the G League, working to build strength and learn how to leverage his length against a higher level of competition. Should he be able to do so, he’ll get a chance to make the most of his footwork and touch from mid-range in spite of his limited explosiveness.

15. Dillon Brooks: 1.94

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 16.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks, 132.77 TPA (for Oregon Ducks)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

If Dillon Brooks makes the final roster and carves out a role in the rotation, “grit and grind” might not be going anywhere. Tony Allen and others may have departed this offseason, but the relentless hustle, overflowing passion and indefatigable motor of this former Duck could prevent the team’s longstanding mentality from slipping away.

To be clear, Brooks isn’t a great defender. He might not even be a good one as he moves out of a zone scheme and tries to finally rack up some steals and blocks. But he can at least use his size and energy to make some sort of impact in the passing lanes while the Grizz bigs clean up behind him. If he’s even moderately effective, that’ll be a win for Memphis, since he’s far better on the offensive end.

Brooks could develop into a spark plug off the pine, capable of working off the catch or putting the ball on the floor to create his own offense. The touch he displays while trying to get off shots in traffic is exemplary, and that may be his most tangible skill of all as he enters his rookie season and attempts to prove he was worth more than the No. 45 pick of the 2017 NBA draft.

14. Wade Baldwin IV: 2.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 3.2 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-43.61 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Wade Baldwin IV didn’t do much to assuage concerns about the limitations of his game as a rookie. Nor, for that matter, did he display many of the purported strengths.

He was supposed to be a strong defensive presence capable of successfully gambling for steals, but he finished as a distinct negative in ESPN.com’s defensive real plus/minus, trailing 59 different point guards during his first campaign on Beale Street. He was supposed to have phenomenal passing vision to mix in with his shot-creating abilities when he attacked the hoop, but both the shots and the passes rarely found their marks in his limited run. Moreover, he hit just 31.3 percent of his looks during live action and 13.6 percent of his deep attempts, failing to make much of an impression in any zone.

Fortunately, he has time to change all this. He’s still battling for minutes as Mike Conley’s primary backup, and he’s only 21 years old until his late-March birthday.

13. Deyonta Davis: 2.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 20
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 1.6 points, 1.7 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.1 steals, 0.5 blocks, minus-16.47 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (Tony East)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Don’t be fooled by Deyonta Davis’ middling numbers during his rookie season with the Grizzlies. The 20-year-old was supposed to be a raw product who’d require some seasoning at the next level…and he was. Prorate his stats to the per-36-minute versions, and he still averaged only 8.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.5 steals and 2.6 blocks.

The rejections are encouraging. But Davis’ offensive acumen didn’t fall into the same category, especially as he struggled to knock down any shots outside the painted area. This big man is supposed to have some stretchiness as he grows, but that needs to be put on display—and quickly—if he’s to have any shot of working his way through the glut of frontcourt players under Memphis’ control.

12. Jarell Martin: 2.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 3.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-68.67 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

After a mediocre performance in summer league that failed to make much of an impression, Jarell Martin is in a tough spot. He’s still fighting for minutes and has plenty of untapped upside remaining in his 6’10” frame, but it’s not clear what areas will see a breakout. Even against lesser talents, he couldn’t stand out as a rebounder, defender or scorer.

Martin just hasn’t been able to leverage his strength and athleticism into production quite yet. He’s not able to overpower opponents like he could while coming out of LSU and becoming the No. 25 pick of the 2015 NBA draft, and he hasn’t developed the technical aspects of his game necessary to compromise the defense.

The Grizzlies have so many unproven options who could line up at the 4. They could go with smaller lineups that feature natural small forwards playing up a position. JaMychal Green could re-sign and render all these options irrelevant. But the point is: Martin’s season could go in two drastically different directions, depending on how he performs in training camp. If he looks to be making strides as a shooter and rebounder, he could win the starting job. If he doesn’t, cutting him is a distinct possibility.

11. Wayne Selden: 2.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 5.1 points, 1.1 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-22.99 TPA (for New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

As Jack Noonan wrote for Grizzly Bear Blues, Wayne Selden is one of the Memphis youngsters most likely to make a leap. Heading into his second season, he’s shown flashes of defensive brilliance, even if those moments came with a shaky perimeter jumper:

Selden will be the most likely candidate to make this second-year jump this season. He will be ready for more NBA minutes after having up and down playing time last season. Selden saw most of the last year on and off waivers before Memphis claimed him for the rest of the year. His ups were very promising as he proved to be a good defender that was always geared up to 100%. His tank felt like it never ran out.

The biggest con on Selden is, like many others, his three-point percentage. To become any competent shooting guard in this league, his shooting percentage has to get a lot better than his lowly 14.3% (yes, that low in 11 games) mark from last year. Yes, it is only 11 games, and, yes, he is an actual sharp shooter, however, the stats need to change if he wants to make the next jump.

Selden did emerge as a potent three-point marksman during his time at Kansas, so don’t be fooled by that putrid percentage posted while trying to carve out a permanent home as a professional. He should only improve as a sophomore, to the point that half our panelists already viewed him as a legitimate depth piece.

10. Andrew Harrison: 2.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 5.9 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-68.03 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Ryan Jarvis)

Andrew Harrison was the man opponents chose to attack whenever he was on the floor, but he didn’t look too overmatched on the defensive end. Thanks to his size (6’6″, 213 pounds) and physicality, he can overpower point guards who choose to test him off the dribble, and he largely held his own in isolation. Off-ball work gave him more trouble, which could change as he gets used to covering NBA sets.

But offense was an entirely different story. Harrison’s passing allowed him to retain some value, but he’ll quickly fall out of the league if he can’t shoot better. As a rookie, this floor general knocked down just 32.5 percent of his shots from the field and 27.6 percent of his three-point attempts, which gave him a true shooting percentage (47.7) worse than all but 10 players who logged at least 1,000 minutes in 2016-17.

Harrison had trouble finishing plays on the interior during his collegiate career, but his jumper did at least work for the Kentucky Wildcats. If that’s not true going forward, he’ll keep trending down and make the eight voters slotting him as a depth piece look foolishly optimistic.

9. Troy Daniels: 2.63

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 8.2 points, 1.5 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-72.8 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (Tim Stubbs)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

Talk about a specialist.

Troy Daniels is an atrocious defender who requires constant supervision from the other four men on the floor. He’s only generated two more assists than turnovers throughout his entire NBA career. He doesn’t offer much on the boards. He’s hit only 33.6 percent of his two-point attempts since joining the Grizzlies for the 2016-17 campaign.

And yet, he’s a fairly valuable presence because of his devastating work from outside the rainbow. Daniels hit 38.9 percent of his treys while taking 5.3 per game last year, and he’s given no reason to expect any sort of regression going forward.

8. Mario Chalmers: 2.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 31
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: N/A
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Ryan Jarvis)

Mario Chalmer’s journey has been an interesting one.

The Grizzlies waived him after he ruptured his right Achilles tendon in a loss to the Boston Celtics in March of 2016, and he failed to find a new home throughout his recovery. Missing the entire 2016-17 campaign, he’s now back with the Grizz on a new deal, ready to pick up where he left off as a veteran point guard figuring out his shooting stroke and improving as a facilitator.

We’re now quite a bit removed from 2015-16, and recovering from that devastating injury is no easy task. But Chalmers was playing some of the best basketball of his career during his first stint in Memphis, and his familiarity with the system could assist him as he tries to carve out a significant role off the pine.

 

7. James Ennis III: 3.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 0.0 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

“Their steadiest option at the position, Ennis established himself as a 3-and-D player last season in Memphis, shooting 37.2 percent from 3 on 2.1 attempts per game,” Jonathan Tjarks wrote for The Ringer about James Ennis III. “After playing for three teams in three seasons (including two stints with the Grizzlies), the 27-year-old knows who he is. He will compete, understand his responsibilities, guard multiple positions, and move the ball, but there’s not much offensive upside there.”

Self-awareness can be a beautiful thing, and it’s why Ennis was able to find success during his age-26 campaign. He understands where to position himself defensively, when to switch on a screen and when to let fly from downtown. He rarely overextends, and the constant attempts to play a mistake-free game paid dividends for the Grizzlies.

Last year, they outscored the opposition by just 0.1 points per 100 possessions when Ennis was on the pine. When he played, that net rating rose to 1.7.

6. Ben McLemore: 3.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 8.1 points, 2.1 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-111.61 TPA (for Sacramento Kings)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

Ben McLemore has been a massive bust since leaving behind the Kansas Jayhawks. He failed to live up to even the tiniest modicum of the hype with which he entered the league as the No. 7 pick of the 2013 NBA draft, doing little to help move the Sacramento Kings out of perpetual lottery finishes.

But this shooting guard is still only 24 years old. His three-point percentage has improved every year of his career (38.2 percent in 2016-17), and he’s slowly learned the nuances of defensive positioning. Given the massive two-way upside he once possessed, is it that unrealistic to think of him as a post-hype sleeper, as three of our voters did by pegging him as a top-end backup?

The Grizzlies certainly hope not, particularly because McLemore is now operating on a two-year prove-yourself deal worth only $10.6 million.

5. Brandan Wright: 3.19

• Age at start of 2017-18: 30
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.7 blocks, 11.17 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Speaking of players who know exactly who they are…

In 28 games for the Grizzlies last year, Brandan Wright took a whopping 63 percent of his field-goal attempts from within three feet of the basket. He’s no longer trying to display range he doesn’t have, instead preferring to feast on easy opportunities near the hoop. That limits his overall productivity, but it’s also helped him shoot at least 60 percent from the field during each of his last four seasons.

If he can stay healthy and avoid getting pushed around on the blocks by stronger bigs, he’ll reject a handful of shots and finish plays effectively off the pick-and-roll. Nothing less, and almost certainly nothing more.

4. Tyreke Evans: 4.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-12.73 TPA (for New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings)
• Highest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Bear with me now, but what if Tyreke Evans’ shooting developments are legitimate?

During his brief stint with the Sacramento Kings, the 28-year-old swingman connected on 43.8 percent of his triples while taking a career-high 3.4 attempts per game from long-range. Granted, this came during a 14-outing sample, and regression to the mean will likely come fast and furious. But if he’s even a competent marksman, his penchant for getting into the lane and wreaking havoc with his finishing and passing abilities will become even more dangerous.

Returning to his collegiate stomping grounds, Evans should become a fan favorite who serves as a super-sub off the Memphis bench. The former Rookie of the Year isn’t a particularly exciting presence these days (again, a working three-point stroke could change that), but he’s effective in his pet areas and provides well-rounded contributions from the wings.

3. Chandler Parsons: 4.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 28
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-53.22 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Chandler Parsons hasn’t exactly lived up to his albatross of a contract, but that’s largely because his body has basically decided to stop working. If that changes—and the latest reports indicate that he’s getting back to full strength—he could give the Grizzlies an unexpected boost by serving as significantly more than just another depth piece.

Chandler Parsons is back in Memphis visiting a kid’s camp. Says he’s totally pain free, working out 4-5 hours a day. pic.twitter.com/CvAeU4R1hg

— Peter Fleischer (@Peter_Fleischer) June 28, 2017

The 28-year-old small forward isn’t that far removed from putting together a quality two-way season for the Dallas Mavericks in 2015-16, even if the never-ending stream of maladies and diminished product makes that seem like a lifetime ago. Health permitting, he could resume functioning as an integral part of the starting lineup, capable of contributing across the board without standing out—positively or negatively—in any one area.

2. Marc Gasol: 8.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 19.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.3 blocks, 204.41 TPA
• Highest Grade: 9 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 7 (multiple voters)

Marc Gasol remains one of the NBA’s most versatile centers, able to produce decisively positive results in so many different roles. He can thrive as a go-to scorer, pick apart a defense with his passing from the high post or shut down the opposition with a complete understanding of point-preventing nuance. How disheartening must it be to execute an offensive set perfectly, only to run into this Spanish 7-footer, who somehow read the play so precisely that he wound up in the ideal spot a split second earlier?

The 32-year-old isn’t quite the Defensive Player of the Year threat he was during his true prime with the Grizzlies, but he’s found a different way to provide immense value.

Gasol entered the 2016-17 campaign having gone 12-of-66 (18.2 percent) from beyond the arc throughout his NBA career. But he decided he was going to shoot triples in an effort to make up for the lack of spacing on the wings, and that’s exactly what he did. He didn’t just dip his toe into the long-range water, either. Instead, he showcased yet another dangerous weapon in his ever-growing arsenal by taking 3.6 triples per game and finding twine on 38.8 percent of them.

1. Mike Conley: 8.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 30
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 20.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 255.63 TPA
• Highest Grade: 9 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 7 (Nick Birdsong)

When you receive the then-largest contract in NBA history, you better be up to the task of justifying that financial commitment. During his first season under the max deal, Mike Conley was.

Though he somehow hasn’t managed to make the All-Star squad in the loaded Western Conference, Conley has officially reached celestial status. His defense remains spectacular, and he just keeps adding to an offensive game that makes him one of the league’s deadliest forces. Averaging 20.5 points and 6.3 assists is tough; doing so on 46.0/40.8/85.9 shooting splits is tougher still, especially while minimizing turnovers (2.3 per game) and creating so much offense for yourself.

Fifteen of our 16 voters pegged Conley as either an All-Star or All-NBA candidate, and that should say it all. He’s reached the tier of elites.

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo