How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
2. End-of-Bench Pieces
3. Depth Pieces
4. High-End Backups
5. Low-End Starters
6. Solid Starters
7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
8. All-Star Candidates
9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
10. Lesser MVP Candidates
11. MVP Frontrunners
12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Golden State Warriors, who somehow seemed to get even better after storming to their second title in three years.

18. Antonius Cleveland: 1.20

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 16.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks, 53.29 TPA (for Southeast Missouri State Redhawks)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

“But what surprised me was his defensive ability. In his highlights, he often turned opportunistic steals into dunks; he did this in Summer League, too,” Isaiah De los Santos wrote for Rip City Project about Antonius Cleveland when the Golden State Warriors poached him away. “Yet the defensive intensity he played with on the ball was mesmerizing. He locked up several players by stretching his arms out, keeping his defensive stance and cutting off any penetration…Getting Cleveland, who plays lockdown defense and provides highlight reel dunks, would not only be a fun signing, but he’d be able to fill defensive needs for the Blazers.”

But his name might be best of all.

If there’s only a 2 percent chance the Warriors signed Cleveland as a troll job after first taking revenge against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2017 NBA Finals, that’s already amazing. Then again, that two-way ability—he shot 38.4 percent from downtown during his final season at Southeast Missouri State—would also be intriguing enough for a training-camp flier even if he underwent a sudden name change  before the start of the 2017-18 campaign.

17. Michael Gbinije: 1.64

• Age at start of 2017-18: 25
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 0.4 points, 0.3 rebounds, 0.2 assists, minus-6.65 TPA (for Detroit Pistons)
• Highest Grade: 3 (Dan Favale)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

This is the danger of entering the NBA too old.

Heading into his second professional season, Michael Gbinije is already a 25-year-old with limited time for development before he hits his athletic peak. That’s why the Detroit Pistons were willing to give up on him just one year after he came off the board at No. 49 in the 2016 NBA draft. He just didn’t show enough as a shooter during his 16 games with the G League’s Grand Rapids Drive, slashing only 42.1/33.3/71.9 while failing to develop as a playmaker.

The Warriors are willing to take a chance that an offseason of work could lead to drastic changes, because his physicality and size (6’7″, 200 pounds) makes him an imposing wing who could work within their switch-heavy defensive schemes. But if he can’t shoot…

16. Damian Jones: 1.75

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 1.9 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, minus-16.96 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (Tony East)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Damian Jones played only sporadically during his rookie season with the eventual champions, but he still has all the tools that made him worthy of the 2016 NBA draft’s 30th selection.

The Vanderbilt product is a 7’0″, 245-pound behemoth capable of bodying up against even the NBA’s biggest players. He projects as a quality interior defender who can shut down back-to-the-basket attempts while thriving on the glass, and his timing on the preventing end should make him into a shot-blocking threat. Moreover, he moves quickly enough both laterally and in a straight line that he can work in Golden State’s schemes, especially if he can start knocking down some jumpers.

But Jones is still developing. He didn’t show any hints of mid-range ability during his 10-game stint in Golden State, and he spent most of his time for the G League’s Santa Cruz Warriors operating in or around the paint. The Dubs are deep enough without him, so they’ll be content to keep letting him grow in obscurity.

15. Georges Niang: 1.87

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 0.9 points, 0.7 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.1 steals, minus-22.48 TPA (for Indiana Pacers)
• Highest Grade: 4 (Arjun Baradwaj)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

How much of an athleticism deficit can a player reasonably overcome?

Georges Niang isn’t particularly quick, and he’s best defensively against post-bound 4s. He doesn’t have nearly any hops to speak of, to the point that he typically takes jumpers while barely elevating off the floor. Even his wingspan (6’10”) is far shorter than what you’d typically want from a 6’8″ power forward.

But the Iowa State product is excellent at the skilled elements of the game, whether he’s handling the rock and providing non-traditional dimes or spotting up to stretch the floor. So long as he knocks down the few looks he’s given, holds his own defensively and keeps displaying a knack for creative finishes around the hoop, he’ll have a role at the end of an NBA bench. Earning anything more doesn’t look promising, though, especially after he went just 9-of-36 from the field as a rookie.

14. Kevon Looney: 2.19

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 3.72 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

For a purported stretch 4, Kevon Looney sure hasn’t done much shooting from outside the restricted area. Over the course of 53 games in 2016-17, the 21-year-old took only 17.7 percent of his field-goal attempts from beyond 10 feet but missed almost all those looks. He couldn’t make a single long-range two-pointer and hit only two of his nine triples.

He has, however, showed off this skill against lesser competition. It’s also important to remember he lost almost all of his rookie season in 2015-16 to hip surgery, thus delaying the development that was already supposed to take a long time. So long as he keeps putting in the necessary work, he could still turn into a floor-spacing frontcourt player who thrives on the glass.

Patience is just needed. Perhaps a little more than originally expected when he came off the board at No. 30 in the 2015 NBA draft.

13. Jordan Bell: 2.63

• Age at start of 2017-18: 22
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.2 blocks, 263.31 TPA (for Oregon Ducks)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Of course the Warriors managed to land a player who could quickly become the biggest steal of the 2017 NBA draft with the No. 28 pick. It should already be telling that no voters viewed this second-round selection as anything less than an end-of-bench piece while two thought he could immediately function as an upper-tier backup. So some advice to the Chicago Bulls: When the defending champions come calling, don’t just take cash for the player they want.

Bell immediately showed what he could do with an ultra-rare five-by-five against the Minnesota Timberwolves during summer league:

This ex-Duck can do everything. Whether he’s flitting around the half-court set to make an impact on defense, protecting the rim from the weak side, flashing passing skills from forward spots or scoring for himself, he’s constantly in search of ways he can change the proceedings for the better. It often worked while he was with the Ducks, and an easy transition could push the Dubs even further ahead of the pack.

12. Omri Casspi: 3.25

• Age at start of 2017-18: 29
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 5.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-38.14 TPA (for Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans and Minnesota Timberwolves)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (Brian Sampson)

“At 6-foot-9, 225 pounds, [Omri] Casspi is more naturally a small forward than a power forward defensively. He’s strong, however, and doesn’t mind physical play in the paint,” ESPN.com wrote about this combo forward before the start of the 2016-17 campaign. “So Casspi rarely got posted up and was effective defending pick-and-rolls with the ability to switch onto guards as necessary. Don’t be fooled by Casspi’s unimpressive overall rebound percentage; he got few offensive boards on the perimeter but was nearly average on the defensive glass for a power forward.”

This last season was a disaster. There’s no way around that ugly truth. Casspi was buried on the Sacramento Kings’ bench, broke his finger during his first appearance for the New Orleans Pelicans and then struggled to find his shot with the Minnesota Timberwolves. But he’s not yet 30 years old and isn’t far removed from a 2015-16 season in which he quietly functioned as one of the league’s most underrated two-way contributors.

By signing him to one-year deal worth just over $2.1 million, the Warriors may have unearthed a gem, assuming they can help him regain a bit of confidence.

11. JaVale McGee: 3.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 29
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.9 blocks, 12.29 TPA
• Highest Grade: 5 (Louis Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

JaVale McGee needed structure, and the Golden State Warriors gave it to him.

The big man played a limited role for the eventual champions, content to throw down a few alley-oop finishes while protecting the rim with aplomb. He rarely put the ball on the floor, was never tasked with serving as a playmaker and was seldom granted a touch outside the painted area. And the strategy worked quite well as McGee patrolled the dunk box while focusing his energies on playing phenomenal defense. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 23.0 points, 11.9 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.9 steals and 3.3 blocks while shooting 65.2 percent from the field.

Expect more of the same in 2017-18. McGee received just 9.6 minutes of action per game, and the Warriors would be foolish to extend him much beyond that. He’s best in this low-minute role that focuses his talents on more attainable goals, which is likely why all but one of our 16 voters viewed him as either a depth piece or upper-tier backup.

You can only do so much in limited run, but he needs limited run in order to do so much.

10. David West: 3.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 37
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, 37.29 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

David West is no longer capable of filling too large a role. But he knows his limits and sticks to them. Remember, self-awareness can be an immensely valuable tool for NBA players.

The 37-year-old power forward no longer demands many touches on the offensive end, though he certainly makes the most of them. He was an efficient scorer during his first season with the Dubs and consistently showcased facilitating touch that had never quite appeared—not to this extent, at least. Averaging 6.4 assists per 36 minutes is no easy feat, as West displayed an ability to pass out of and through traffic to find his open teammates.

Still, defense is his calling card. The physicality hasn’t gone anywhere, and neither has the discipline that allows this big man to stick with players filling so many different roles.

9. Patrick McCaw: 3.56

• Age at start of 2017-18: 21
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.0 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-37.96 TPA
• Highest Grade: 5 (Louis Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (Brian Sampson)

All things considered, Patrick McCaw’s rookie year should be considered a success. He held his own defensively against all different types oft players and showed upside across the board. Even though he was an inconsistent passer who struggled with his outside shot, he put together moments that indicated he could grow into so much more, potentially developing into a contributor capable of taking over for Andre Iguodala down the road.

Perhaps most impressively, McCaw didn’t look overmatched on the sport’s biggest stage. He started games during two different playoff series while Kevin Durant was out and made a few timely plays against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2017 NBA Finals. That’s just preparation for the future, since he’ll surely be receiving more big-time opportunities as this dynasty continues.

Don’t be surprised by a breakout that makes McCaw’s most optimistic supporters look prescient. And for what it’s worth, eight of 16 voters already pegged this swingman as an upper-tier backup—by no means something to be embarrassed about as a 21-year-old rising sophomore.

8. Nick Young: 3.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 13.2 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-25.54 TPA (for Los Angeles Lakers)
• Highest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

All that’s holding Nick Young back is himself.

If this mercurial swingman is willing to buy into his role with the defending champions, he’ll have a breakout season as a deadly weapon off the bench. He shouldn’t expect to dribble around aimlessly and loft an ill-advised shot. He won’t function as a facilitator. He’ll have to buy in on defense. But if he’s willing to wait for the right moments, he’ll receive plenty of wide-open opportunities to knock down catch-and-shoot jumpers.

And that’s a beautiful thing for Young. During his final season with the Los Angeles Lakers, he scored an impressive 1.4 points per possession in spot-up situations, which left him in the 83.3 percentile. If he can do that while surrounded by such limited offensive players, just imagine what he might be capable of in a different version of the infamous Death Lineup.

7. Shaun Livingston: 4.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 32
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 5.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-55.93 TPA
• Highest Grade: 5 (Dan Favale)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (Brian Sampson)

Is there any doubt about Shaun Livingston’s role with the Warriors?

On defense, he’s an oversized backcourt defender who can switch on every pick-and-roll to body up against bigger players. His switchability adds so much value to their schemes, even if he can be largely overmatched in plenty of one-on-one situations that lead to more middling defensive metrics. Offensively, he’s a limited shooter who steadily runs the show, knocks down mid-range jumpers with a high release and changes the pace with post-up attempts against smaller guards.

He’s filled this role for years. Now, there’s no reason to expect anything different, though his advancing age might lead to him coming off the bench for shorter spurts.

6. Zaza Pachulia: 4.25

• Age at start of 2017-18: 33
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 71.18 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (Nick Birdsong)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (Arjun Baradwaj)

Unfortunately, two stories rose to the forefront of any conversation surrounding Zaza Pachulia in 2016-17.

Early on, it was the ridiculousness of his All-Star candidacy, since the fan vote nearly propelled him into the starting lineup of the midseason classic. During the playoffs, it was his contest of a Kawhi Leonard jumper midway through Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, as Pachulia—whether intentionally or not—slid his foot under Leonard and knocked the opposing superstar out for the rest of the series.

But focusing on those narratives is a disservice to Pachulia, who was quietly excellent for Golden State. Every team needs a physical big man who can serve as an enforcer, glass-eater and interior defender, and that was this 33-year-old center’s role night in and night out. Beyond that, his jarring screens and deft passing from the high post also aided the cause.

5. Andre Iguodala: 5.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 33
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 7.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 124.62 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (Tom Rende)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

Andre Iguodala isn’t the best player on the Golden State Warriors. That much should be obvious.

But he also represents exactly what they’re about on both ends of the floor.

Defensively, he’s the living embodiment of the Death Lineup principles: able to switch on any screen, willing to buckle down against each and every defender, constantly probing for turnovers and able to turn around and lead a fast break after grabbing a rebound or a steal. Offensively, he’s not the same caliber shooter as the true stars of the Bay Area, but his versatility still overwhelms opponents. Whether through athleticism or skill with the ball, he can exploit one mismatch after another while constantly creating them for his teammates.

Iguodala isn’t a box-score superstar. But his impact remains monumental.

4. Klay Thompson: 8.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 22.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 16.53 TPA
• Highest Grade: 9 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 7 (multiple voters)

Klay Thompson is what every three-and-D prospect tries to become.

Though he’s overshadowed by members of his team, this 2-guard has become one of the best shooters in NBA history. He took 8.3 treys per game while hitting at a 41.4 percent clip in 2016-17, and that somehow felt like just another routine performance. Meanwhile, he’s one of the league’s most dangerous on-ball defenders, constantly accepting tough assignments that ask him to switch onto dominant ball-handlers like Kyrie Irving or bigger wing players.

But he’s not without his flaws, which is why no voters were willing to consider him an MVP candidate. That’s not just because he’s the fourth-best player on the league’s best team.

Thompson is a remarkably limited rebounder for his size and rarely shows any ability to set up his teammates with quality feeds. He can also get caught watching the action in off-ball scenarios, allowing his marks to earn relatively easy spot-up opportunities. If any of that changes, he might reach an entirely new level.

3. Draymond Green: 9.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.4 blocks, 272.29 TPA
• Highest Grade: 10 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 8 (Michael Brock)

Draymond Green could sit down on the offensive end and still serve as one of the most valuable players in basketball.

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, this former second-round pick thrived with indefatigable passion and energy, bouncing between assignments to become the rare player who’s somehow at his best when he’s guarding no one. Functioning as something of a basketball free safety, he can wander between foes to disrupt schemes, cutting off one passing lane and then bodying up against a bigger player a few seconds later. If one possession from his incredible defensive season sticks out, it should be the one in which he literally managed to defend all five members of the Portland Trail Blazers in quick succession:

Of course, Green doesn’t actually take a seat on offense.

Instead, he serves as a floor-spacing power forward who’s become one of the NBA’s best assist men. Averaging seven dimes is no easy feat, especially because Green also cut his turnover rate rather significantly during the best season of his career—the best so far, at least.

2. Stephen Curry: 10.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 29
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 25.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, 405.88 TPA
• Highest Grade: 11 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 10 (multiple voters)

What can we say about Stephen Curry that hasn’t already been said?

He’s the greatest shooter in NBA history, but you’ve heard that before. At this point, you’ve likely realized he’s also one of the best rebounding guards in the league and an underrated defender who plays well off the ball and knows how to push ball-handlers into the right spots. So perhaps you’d like to see how he’s now posted a handful of the greatest offensive seasons in the modern era:

Curry remains a generational talent, capable of pulling up from anywhere on the floor and knocking down a jumper. Perhaps we should start calling him Jupiter, because that’s the planet in our solar system with the strongest gravitational pull.

1. Kevin Durant: 11.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 29
• Position: SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 25.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.6 blocks, 344.31 TPA
• Highest Grade: 12 (Louis Vicchiollo)
• Lowest Grade: 11 (multiple voters)

Kevin Durant might’ve had a more serious shot at MVP if he’d stayed healthy throughout the regular season, but he put together a convincing case that he was the best player on the court during the star-studded 2017 NBA Finals. Though only one of our 16 voters granted him that distinction, no one was willing to call him anything less than an MVP frontrunner after he averaged 35.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.6 blocks on 55.6/47.4/92.7 percent shooting splits against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Obviously, that’s not quite sustainable.

But at this point, why doubt Durant? He was an underrated defender in the Golden State system, showcasing his versatility and impressive rim-protection abilities. He was arguably the league’s most dangerous offensive threat. He was even a deft distributor willing to involve his teammates whenever possible.

Peak Durant has officially arrived.

 

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo