How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
2. End-of-Bench Pieces
3. Depth Pieces
4. High-End Backups
5. Low-End Starters
6. Solid Starters
7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
8. All-Star Candidates
9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
10. Lesser MVP Candidates
11. MVP Frontrunners
12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Dallas Mavericks, who are attempting to blend together youth and veteran pieces to make a surprising charge up the Western Conference standings.

19. Maxi Kleber: 1.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 25
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 9.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.1 blocks (for Bayern Munich)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Perhaps the most exciting thing about Maxi Kleber during his rookie season? He’s from Wurzburg, Germany—the same exact city that spawned another towering big man who won’t be showing up until far later in these rankings. That innate bond with Dirk Nowitzki should legitimately help this 25-year-old feel more comfortable as he attempts to break into the NBA, as he can lean on his veteran teammate for mentorship throughout the 82-game campaign.

Just don’t expect him to do all that much on-court learning. Most will come via observation as he watches from the pine, waiting to show off his smooth shooting stroke and palpable athleticism in future seasons. Kleber profiles as a pick-and-pop threat who can protect the rim on the other end, but he’s more raw than you might expect from a rookie his age, thanks to a history of injuries that held him back during his European career.

18. Maalik Wayns: 1.33

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 11.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 steals (for Maccabi Rishon Lezion and Enisey Krasnoyarsk)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Maalik Wayns hasn’t stepped onto an NBA court since flaming out with the Los Angeles Clippers in 2013-14. Since then, he’s played for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, Delaware 87ers, Atenienses de Manati, Pallacanestro Varese, Maccabi Rishon Lezion and Enisey Krasnoyarsk. And all the while, he was presumably waiting for this chance—an opportunity to latch on with another team at the sport’s highest level.

To stick, Wayns will need to show off an improved shooting stroke. He knocked down only 30 percent of his field-goal attempts and 22.6 percent of his three-pointers during his first stint in the Association, but his time abroad has given reason for optimism. During this last year, he raised those respective numbers to 42.8 and 39.0, which, though they might not be particularly impressive, are far more palatable.

16(tie). Brandon Ashley: 1.40

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: N/A
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

“One thing Brandon [Ashley] did is he played with a level of experience and knows how to read defenses,” Dallas Mavericks summer league head coach Jamahl Mosley said about the former Arizona Wildcat this offseason, per Eric Brown of Zona Zealots. “Defensively, he just covered for guys. He was very good for us. I think it’s huge. He’s showing he knows how to play, he’s showing he belongs at this level, and he just does the little intangible things that I think are going to be good for us going forward.”

If Ashley is to make the real roster and survive training-camp cuts, he’ll need to keep shining on defense. That was his true calling card while dominating in the Pac-12, even if he didn’t rack up too many blocks or steals. His switchability as a 6’9″ power forward with great lateral quickness pays major dividends.

16(tie). Gian Clavell: 1.40

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 20.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.7 blocks, 104.19 TPA (for Colorado State Rams)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Gian Clavell’s journey just to get to this point has been utterly fascinating.

He began his collegiate career at Northwest Kansas Technical College but quickly transferred to Colorado State, where he slowly developed into one of the conference’s most dangerous offensive contributors. As a senior, he even won Player of the Year in the Mountain West for his scoring excellence, which saw him average 20.4 points per game on shooting splits of 43.0/38.6/69.3. But then he went undrafted this offseason and was forced to ply his trade in summer league, hoping to find a roster with which he could stick.

Maybe he’s found it. If the Mavericks decide they need a pure scorer off the pine and can stomach his inability to function as a secondary distributor, they could always call his number for a quick burst of energy. His willingness to buckle down on defense won’t hurt, either.

15. P.J. Dozier: 1.53

• Age at start of 2017-18: 20
• Position: SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 13.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 128.54 TPA (for South Carolina Gamecocks)
• Highest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

P.J. Dozier is the intriguing shooting guard who can’t actually shoot.

During his sophomore season with the Gamecocks, he connected on 29.8 percent of his looks from beyond the shortened arc while taking just 3.9 per game. And that was actually a substantial step in the right direction after the freshman version’s numbers stood at 21.3 and 1.4, respectively.

Dozier has incredible size (6’6″ with a 6’11” wingspan) for a natural shooting guard who’s shown flashes of ability at the 1. He’s fine leading the charge in transition, but developing patience in the half-court set and shoring up his handles—far too often, he pounds the ball off the hardwood and exposes it to defenders paying close attention—would go a long way in making him an oversized combo guard who can use his size to stifle foes on the defensive end.

14. Josh McRoberts: 2.13

• Age at start of 2017-18: 30
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-18.13 TPA (for Miami Heat)
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Josh McRoberts only wound up with the Mavericks because the Miami Heat needed to clear some cap room for their offseason additions. They traded him, $5.1 million in cash and a future second-round draft pick for nothing more than A.J. Hammons. Now, this veteran big man is by no means a guarantee to fill a rotation role with Dallas, but he certainly has the skills necessary to make a small impact if he does.

The 30-year-old isn’t a star. He’s not even close. But he remains a deft distributor who loves hitting cutters as they dart toward the basket, and his persisting shooting ability helps him space out the floor for those off-ball motions. Even in limited time with the Heat in 2016-17 before injuries prematurely ended his campaign for the third consecutive season, he drilled 41.9 percent of his treys.

13. Salah Mejri: 2.38

• Age at start of 2017-18: 31
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, 1.74 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Looking at Salah Mejri’s per-36-minute numbers makes it clear why he has some value in a smaller rotation role. The 7’1″ center posted 8.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.4 blocks during that typical time frame, doing so while shooting 64.2 percent from the field and rarely coughing up the ball to the opposition. He’s a legitimate stud on the glass and can capably protect the interior, using his size and physicality to deter the other squad from entering his domain.

Of course, this exercise also exposes some of the weaknesses.

Averaging an even six personal fouls per 36 minutes is problematic, and it’s a major reason Mejri has been unable to carve out a larger role during either his rookie or sophomore seasons with the Mavericks. The complete lack of passing ability and brick-laying habits at the charity stripe (59 percent in 2016-17) also serve as deterrents in his ongoing quest for more run.

12. Devin Harris: 2.56

• Age at start of 2017-18: 34
• Position: PG/SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-8.35 TPA
• Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Devin Harris is a limited player at this stage of his career, but a few skills allow him to maintain a bit of value as a seldom-used backcourt member.

The 34-year-old can function either as an on-ball point guard who loves driving to the hoop and drawing contact or an off-ball 2 who (kind of) spaces the court with the threat of spot-up jumpers. He’s not a particularly gifted shooter, but defenders still have to respect his desire to fire away, and they must close out on him or run the risk of him driving right into their bodies off the catch and earning another whistle. And yet, his defensive versatility may be the biggest draw when he’s on the floor, since he’s demonstrated comfort matching up against bigger players and letting head coach Rick Carlisle run with smaller units.

Harris won’t post glamorous numbers in 2017-18, and he’ll likely cede minutes to the younger backcourt players with far more upside. But every once in a while, he can rewind the clocks and remind viewers—if only for an instant—of his All-Star form from all the way back in 2008-09.

11. Jeff Withey: 2.63

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: C
• 2016-17 Stats: 2.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.6 blocks, 12.37 TPA (for Utah Jazz)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

We’ll keep this short and sweet, because Jeff Withey only has one major skill to which it’s worth paying attention. He can serve as a solid rebounder and efficient finisher around the iron, but the main draw is his ability to protect the basket.

NBA Math’s defensive points saved had him as a significant positive (22.26), while ESPN.com’s defensive real plus/minus similarly listed him as an above-average stopper. His interior work is the primary driver of those scores, since he both swats away shots and uses his 7’0″ frame and lanky arms to deter shots from ever occurring. Working in Rudy Gobert’s shadow masked some of his value off the Utah Jazz bench—any interior defense pales in comparison to that of the French phenom—but he should get some love off the pine in Dallas.

10. Dorian Finney-Smith: 2.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 4.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-47.31 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

During his rookie season, Dorian Finney-Smith flopped miserably on the offensive end. Not only did he score just 4.3 points per game while struggling to record more assists than turnovers, but he also shot only 37.2 percent from the field and 29.3 percent from downtown. Those are unacceptable numbers for a frontcourt player who spent just 29 percent of his minutes at a position smaller than than the 4, and they made it hard for Carlisle to justify handing him crucial responsibilities when games were tight.

On the flip side, Finney-Smith excelled defensively. His steal and block tallies may not indicate as much, but he was a disciplined defender who excelled when he was dragged out to the perimeter. Though catching him in a pick-and-roll after he switched onto a ball-handler was a source of near-automatic points for the opposition, he was so active off the ball that he could contest passing lanes before recovering to snuff out a spot-up jumper.

If his offense returns to Florida levels (he shot 36.1 percent from downtown on 4.4 attempts per game in three years with the Gators), he could be in line for a breakout sophomore season that makes the two voters who viewed him as a top-end backup look awfully prescient.

9. J.J. Barea: 3.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 33
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 0.4 steals, minus-8.89 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

When J.J. Barea is on the floor, Dallas has to live with decreased defensive expectations. He simply doesn’t have the physical profile to stop opposing point guards, and he’s entirely overmatched if he winds up switching against an even larger player. The 6’0″ floor general may occasionally come away with a steal before leading the fast break in the opposite direction, but he usually serves as a turnstile just ushering opponents into the painted area.

Why? Because he can keep putting up points even as his career moves into its twilight. Barea remains a scoring spark plug off the bench, capable of leading one-man runs against second units that pull the Mavericks back into games, and it helps that he displayed more passing acumen than ever before during the 2017-18 campaign. If he can build upon his career-high nine assists per 36 minutes while still keeping his turnovers in check, this grade will wind up looking far too low.

8. Dwight Powell: 3.19

• Age at start of 2017-18: 26
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 6.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 38.41 TPA
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

The idea of Dwight Powell has always been a positive one. Using his jaw-dropping athletic traits, he’s supposed to finish plays around the rim on one end while wreaking havoc everywhere on the other. He plays an efficient brand of basketball and contributes across the board, all of which has led to solid advanced metrics and the hope that he can one day break out into a larger role.

But that breakout hasn’t happened. Three years into his professional career, he’s struggling to play high-quality offense when not finishing looks right at the tin, and most of his value stems from his defensive presence. The Mavs were actually 5.3 points per 100 possessions worse when he was on the floor in 2016-17, and that’s not too inspiring as he inches closer to the final years of his athletic prime.

That didn’t dissuade six voters from viewing him as a top-end backup, though. Then again, it may be even more telling that no one viewed him as even a low-end starter; I’d wager that wouldn’t have been the case if we’d run this exercise before the start of the previous season.

7. Yogi Ferrell: 3.31

• Age at start of 2017-18: 24
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 10.0 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-18.79 TPA (for Brooklyn Nets and Dallas Mavericks)
• Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 2 (Louis Vicchiollo)

Talk about a pleasant surprise.

After going undrafted out of Indiana, Yogi Ferrell latched on with the Brooklyn Nets and bounced between the big-league roster and what was then known as the NBA Developmental League before the franchise waived him. But he found a potentially permanent home with the Mavericks, who inked him to a 10-day contract, watched as he excelled offensively and then handed him the multi-year pact on which he’ll be playing through the end of 2017-18.

Ferrell’s torrid start was always a bit too good to be true, and he was quickly exposed defensively. But his shooting isn’t a fluke, and it’s perfectly reasonable to expect that he comes close to 40 percent from beyond the arc while displaying high-quality facilitating tools as the first guard off the Dallas bench.

6. Seth Curry: 4.69

• Age at start of 2017-18: 27
• Position: PG/SG
• 2016-17 Stats: 12.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.1 blocks, 54.56 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (Brian Sampson)

Yes, Seth Curry’s last name means he has to be good at shooting the sphere. And he is. During his first season with the Mavericks, he connected on his 4.6 triples per game at a 42.5 percent clip, becoming one of only three qualified shooters to meet or surpass those admittedly arbitrary thresholds.

But that’s by no means all he brings to the proverbial table. As Carlisle told me about his breakthrough backcourt member during the 2016-17 campaign as Dallas prepared for a contest with the Denver Nuggets, “He’s been very consistent at both ends. Everyone knows he can score, but his defense has been a pleasant surprise. He’s handling things well. He’s taking care of his body. Those are the kind of things you have to do to stay strong during a long NBA season.”

With quick hands and a knack for proper positioning, Curry developed dramatically on defense. And that, just as much as his shooting acumen, is the reason he may have found his long-term home while convincing three different voters he deserves to be thought of as a solid starter.

5. Dennis Smith Jr.: 4.94

• Age at start of 2017-18: 19
• Position: PG
• 2016-17 Stats: 18.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.4 blocks, 146.17 TPA (for North Carolina State Wolfpack)
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

The floor should be most telling here.

Rookie point guards must go through difficult adjustment periods as they adapt to the speed of the NBA game, and they often struggle with turnovers while shooting low percentages from the field. But Dennis Smith Jr. is so talented that not a single voter was willing to call him anything less than a top-end backup, while five were convinced he’d enter the 2017-18 campaign as a solid starter.

After watching him explode for 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.2 steals while shooting 45.7 percent from the field in six games at Las Vegas Summer League, it’s not hard to see why. The game just comes naturally to him, allowing him to use his explosive athleticism and tight handles for attacking the hoop in spaces only he could envision. Some players just have “it,” and Smith most certainly does.

4. Wesley Matthews: 5.00

• Age at start of 2017-18: 31
• Position: SG/SF
• 2016-17 Stats: 13.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks, 4.79 TPA
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

Wesley Matthews hasn’t been quite the same player since an Achilles injury essentially ended his tenure with the Portland Trail Blazers. He no longer finishes through traffic with as much confidence and has played a far more conservative role while wearing a Dallas uniform. But he’s filled his two trademark roles quite nicely all the while.

The 31-year-old swingman is no longer an elite three-and-D wing. He is, however, adept in both areas, to the point that he’s retained plenty of value while moving out of his athletic prime. No one would mistake him for an All-Star candidate, but that’s just fine.

Matthews drilled 36.3 percent of his triples while taking 6.6 per game in 2016-17. And while that means his two lowest percentages have come in the Lone Star State, he’s still exceeding the league average (35.8) and shooting with plenty of volume. He might even regress to his career mean soon enough. Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s DRPM grades him as a positive defensive presence, allowing him to complete the second half of the three-and-D criteria.

3. Dirk Nowitzki: 5.44

• Age at start of 2017-18: 39
• Position: PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 14.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, minus-35.55 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (Adam Spinella)
• Lowest Grade: 4 (Andrew Bailey)

What a shock this must be: a ranking of Mavericks in the 21st century that has Dirk Nowitzki finishing not just outside the top slot, but looking up at the team’s top two contributors.

And yet, that doesn’t feel too unrealistic after a season in which the future Hall of Famer uncharacteristically struggled with his offensive game. Finishing with a negative offensive box plus/minus for the first time since his rookie season all the way back in 1998-99, the German 7-footer rarely got involved as a distributor and shot just 43.7 percent from the field after returning from a right Achilles strain that flared up multiple times. But that could change with a full offseason of recovery, which makes this next part all the more positive.

While he struggled to score effectively, Nowitzki played surprisingly solid defense. He was by no means a true point-preventing standout, but his positioning and timing while invading passing lanes allowed him to make a positive impact. Both DRPM and DBPM graded him as a slightly beneficial presence, which bodes well as his unblockable flamingo fadeaway leads to better offense in 2017-18.

2. Nerlens Noel: 5.50

• Age at start of 2017-18: 23
• Position: PF/C
• 2016-17 Stats: 11.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.5 blocks, 68.96 TPA (for Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks)
• Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 3 (Louis Vicchiollo)

Don’t make the mistake of viewing Nerlens Noel’s protracted free-agency discussions with the Dallas Mavericks as an indication that he doesn’t hold any value. If anything, having to accept the qualifying offer and defer his open-market conversations until the summer of 2018 could lead to an even more motivated season from this young big man.

Noel remains a limited player who isn’t always a perfect fit in the modern NBA. Though he once showed signs of improving his mid-range jumper with the Philadelphia 76ers, he’s remained a non-shooter who provides almost all his offensive contributions from the paint.

And yet, he’s still a useful presence. Noel’s energy on the offensive glass and when crashing to the hoop for an alley-oop feed is contagious, and his arrival in Dallas immediately helped his teammates play with a less rigid structure that opened up some beneficial new sets. He’s also in possession of tremendous defensive potential, indicating that he could serve as an All-Defensive threat if and when he learns that maintaining interior positioning is always more important than increasing the block tally.

1. Harrison Barnes: 6.06

• Age at start of 2017-18: 25
• Position: SF/PF
• 2016-17 Stats: 19.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-102.3 TPA
• Highest Grade: 7 (multiple voters)
• Lowest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)

Advanced metrics did not love Harrison Barnes’ performance as a leading man for the Mavericks. You can see the decisively negative TPA score listed above, and ESPN.com’s RPM slotted the first-year go-to option as a slight negative, falling directly between present-day luminaries such as Davis Bertans and Luol Deng.

But those stats are also devoid of context. They don’t show how hard it can be to function as a featured option with constantly shifting pieces around you. They don’t account for the value he provided switching to the 4 and bodying up against bigger forwards in the post. They don’t factor in the upside possessed by this 25-year-old who was transitioning from a quaternary piece to a leading man.

Plus, Barnes did still manage to average 19.2 points per game, even if they came with sub-standard shooting numbers. Expect those to trend upward in 2017-18 as he displays more comfort in his role and asserts himself as a legitimate franchise centerpiece for the foreseeable future.

 

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo