#CrystalBasketball: Ranking the Brooklyn Nets for 2017-18

by Adam Fromal in Crystal Basketball

How does every NBA player stack up heading into 2017-18, based solely on the level at which we expect them to play during the upcoming season?

That’s the question 16 NBA Math staff members and contributors sought to answer, ranking each and every player in the sport’s premier league on a 1-to-12 scale and then seeing who emerged with the highest averages. The distant past was irrelevant. Long-term potential doesn’t matter. Only what could come to pass in 2017-18 is factored in, assuming health for those currently healthy and full recoveries from those presently injured. For example, Brandon Knight will still be included in this analysis; we just assumed he’d already completed his rehab for the torn ACL and now has that as a prior portion of his overall injury history.

All players were graded on the following scale by each evaluator, and ties between players with identical averages were broken by sorting the 16 scores from best to worst and propping up the men who had the highest mark at any point in the top-down progression:

  1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
  2. End-of-Bench Pieces
  3. Depth Pieces
  4. High-End Backups
  5. Low-End Starters
  6. Solid Starters
  7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
  8. All-Star Candidates
  9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
  10. Lesser MVP Candidates
  11. MVP Frontrunners
  12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Journey with us team by team as we unveil the entirety of these rankings, culminating in a look at every player set to suit up for the 2017-18 campaign.

Today’s featured squad? The Brooklyn Nets, who made some intriguing moves this offseason in an attempt to move up the Eastern Conference standings and escape the everlasting rebuild.

14. Jarrett Allen: 2.31

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 19
  • Position: C
  • 2016-17 Stats: 13.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.5 blocks, 98.12 TPA (for Texas Longhorns)
  • Highest Grade: 4 (Adam Spinella)
  • Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

This mustachioed, afro-boasting big man looks straight out of an earlier decade, but his game still puts some modern-day flair on display. That may well be the most overwhelming positive for this 19-year-old rookie, since the NBA should prove far tougher than the foes he faced off against while at Texas. He’s overflowing with long-term potential; it’ll just be tough to realize all of it while competing on one of the Eastern Conference’s lesser squads and adapting to the world of professional basketball.

Despite his lanky arms, Jarrett Allen doesn’t yet have the tools to become a high-quality defender. His instincts aren’t quite there, and neither is the lateral quickness necessary to slide in front of quicker guards in pick-and-roll scenarios. But he’ll still block shots and rebound with aplomb, all while showing off the soft touch that hints at a stellar face-up game in coming seasons.

Be patient with him, Brooklyn.

13. Joe Harris: 2.50

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 26
  • Position: SG
  • 2016-17 Stats: 8.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks, minus-72.04 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 4 (Nick Birdsong)
  • Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

When lesser players are attempting to stick in a rotation, they often need to display a primary calling card. Joe Harris has one, and it’s certainly not his work as a distributor. He’s also an atrocious defender, often getting torched in the one-on-one scenarios sought out by the opposition as they look to expose his presence on the wings.

But he can shoot the rock.

Harris connected on 38.5 percent of his 4.3 triples per game during his first go-round with the Nets—one of only 33 players to match or exceed those numbers throughout the 2016-17 campaign. And he was even better in catch-and-shoot scenarios, connecting on his 3.4 attempts per contest at a 39.5 percent clip. This time, just 25 other contributors managed to hit those marks.

12. Isaiah Whitehead: 2.56

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 22
  • Position: PG
  • 2016-17 Stats: 7.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.5 blocks, minus-169.9 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)
  • Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

Using his 6’4″ frame and speed, Isaiah Whitehead held his own on the defensive end throughout his rookie season in the Barclays Center. The same could not be said, however, about his offensive game.

If this Seton Hall product is going to find long-term success at the NBA level, he’ll need to shore up his levels of efficiency—a statement that applies to both his shooting percentages and passing figures. It’s problematic that he could slash just 40.2/29.5/80.5, though the final number indicates his shooting stroke may not be beyond repair. More troubling is his middling assist-to-turnover ratio, as he averaged just 2.6 dimes while turning the rock over 1.9 times per contest in fairly limited action.

11. Quincy Acy: 2.69

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 27
  • Position: PF
  • 2016-17 Stats: 6.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, minus-34.84 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)
  • Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

Talk about an indefatigable motor.

Quincy Acy simply doesn’t have an off switch when he’s on the floor, refusing to stop hustling as he racks up offensive rebounds (1.3 per 36 minutes) and works past the defense to earn easy finishes around the basket. He’s a lackluster defensive presence who can often miss easy box-outs, though, potentially because he’s too busy thinking about the next opportunity to crash in for a put-back opportunity.

But becoming a better possession-ender on the boards isn’t the key to him developing into a high-end backup. Acy needs to prove the legitimacy of his burgeoning three-point stroke, since his 41.1 percent shooting on 2.4 deep attempts per game still isn’t dragging the opposition out to the arc and spacing the floor for cuts from his teammates.

10. Spencer Dinwiddie: 2.69

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 24
  • Position: PG/SG
  • 2016-17 Stats: 7.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, minus-25.34 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 4 (Frank Urbina)
  • Lowest Grade: 2 (multiple voters)

“[Spencer] Dinwiddie is a smart point guard who rarely turns the ball over. He fits the high character and hard-working persona that Sean Marks and [Kenny] Atkinson look for. He fits the vision,” Anthony Puccio penned for NetsDaily.com. “Now, he must show growth in training camp and preseason to get one of the more serious roles on a team where minutes are distributed evenly.”

The playmaking is fine, giving the Nets the luxury of having high-quality passing come from a versatile source. But until Dinwiddie figures out how to navigate past screens on the defensive end or finish plays around the basket (just 58.4 percent shooting from inside three feet and 36.2 percent from between three and 10 feet), he’ll remain in a Sisyphean competition for minutes as a backcourt backup.

9. Timofey Mozgov: 2.81

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 31
  • Position: C
  • 2016-17 Stats: 7.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.6 blocks, minus-81.55 TPA (for Los Angeles Lakers)
  • Highest Grade: 5 (Louis Vicchiollo)
  • Lowest Grade: 1 (multiple voters)

Even though Timofey Mozgov’s final grade indicated that he falls just shy of being a key depth piece, a few voters saw more potential. One pegged him as a low-end starter, and three more viewed him as a top-end backup. Those marks are more in line with the perception that existed when he signed the four-year, $46 million contract with the Los Angeles Lakers last summer that began his quick fall from grace.

At one point, Mozgov was a competent defensive presence who displayed soft touch on shots around the hoop. He could even step out beyond the paint and hit some mid-range jumpers for the Denver Nuggets. Those skills now lie dormant, thanks to the declining confidence and negative perception that stems from operating on an albatross of a contract.

Perhaps a move to the Nets will unlock some of them once again.

8. Sean Kilpatrick: 3.13

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 27
  • Position: SG
  • 2016-17 Stats: 13.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-111.05 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 5 (Nick Birdsong)
  • Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

Though opinions varied rather drastically when evaluating Sean Kilpatrick, 12 of 16 votes slotted him as either a depth piece or a high-end backup. And that’s nothing to be ashamed of for the 27-year-old journeyman, especially after he displayed enough scoring potential during his first full season with the Nets to earn another shot in the rotation. Lest we forget, this 2-guard averaged 16.3 points while shooting 43.6 percent from the field and 36.2 percent from downtown during his first 25 games in 2016-17, highlighted by this 38-point outburst against the Los Angeles Clippers:

But consistency just isn’t there.

Kilpatrick faded from the spotlight as the season progressed and the scouting report got distributed around the league. Everyone now understands he’s looking to get to the hoop on every single possession, and they’re increasingly packing the paint against his drives (his field-goal percentage from inside three feet plummeted after those first 25 games) or forcing him into other decisions. Until he becomes a better passer or mid-range shooter, his pet plays will typically be thwarted.

7. Caris LeVert: 3.56

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 23
  • Position: SG/SF
  • 2016-17 Stats: 8.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.1 blocks, minus-28.71 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)
  • Lowest Grade: 1 (Brian Sampson)

Were it not for foot surgery that hampered his draft prospects prior to the 2016 selection process, Caris LeVert might have emerged as a lottery pick and become much more of a household name. Instead, he slipped to the Nets at No. 20—still earlier than many mock drafts pegged him—and toiled away in relative obscurity during his rookie season. Few took notice of his slashing prowess, playmaking ability or knack for guarding multiple positions for short spurts.

Maybe they will if his shot comes around. LeVert connected on 40.1 percent of his triples during a four-year career at Michigan, but he struggled immensely beyond the NBA arc throughout his first go-round with the Nets. If that changes and subsequently opens up more lanes for him to show off his drive-and-kick vision, he could begin to emerge as an under-the-radar three-and-D option with a bright future in the dim lighting of Brooklyn’s arena.

6. Trevor Booker: 3.63

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 29
  • Position: PF
  • 2016-17 Stats: 10.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, 7.4 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 5 (Andrew Bailey)
  • Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Trevor Booker may not be special in any one area, but he’s solid in just about all of them.

Though his range doesn’t extend all the way into three-point territory, he’s competent enough as a shooter to stretch out a defense and connect on some mid-range looks. He’ll never truly thrive in any specific play type, but his athleticism and never-ending energy reserves allow him to wear down the opposition and create some easy opportunities. Defensively, he doesn’t block many shots but remains active in passing lanes and tends to hold his own against so many different player molds.

Brooklyn has found a solid defensive niche for him to fill, and his value could trend up as the teammates around him take on additional offensive responsibilities and allow him to focus more on his other strengths.

5. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: 3.63

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 22
  • Position: SG/SF/PF
  • 2016-17 Stats: 8.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, minus-37.17 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)
  • Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Just take a look at Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s TPA breakdown during the past two seasons, and you’ll quickly see the area from which his primary value stems:

The rising junior is a legitimate defensive ace, capable of defending nearly every position on the floor. His remarkably quick feet let him slide in front of speedy guards, from where he can use his size (6’7″ with a 7’2″ wingspan) to snuff out any developing passing lanes. But he’s just as capable bodying up and showcasing his strength against bigger forwards. He can even use his length to interfere with true centers, snatching the ball away if the opposing 5s are foolish enough to drop it below their shoulders.

Hollis-Jefferson still won’t become a star until he fixes his cringe-inducing jumper. Frankly, his offensive woes are still so extreme that they negate nearly all of his defensive value—the primary reason only three voters deemed him worthy of a starting grade.

4. DeMarre Carroll: 4.31

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 31
  • Position: SF
  • 2016-17 Stats: 8.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, 40.84 TPA (for Toronto Raptors)
  • Highest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)
  • Lowest Grade: 3 (multiple voters)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

During the 2014-15 campaign, DeMarre Carroll broke out as a two-way stalwart for the Atlanta Hawks, shooting 39.5 percent from three-point range while thriving as he took down the opponent’s most prominent wing. But he’s trended in the wrong direction ever since signing a four-year, $60 million pact with the Toronto Raptors. After two years of less-impressive defense, persistent injury woes and declining three-point percentages, he was dealt to the Nets in a salary-dump trade, coming aboard along with picks in both rounds of the 2018 NBA draft and bringing back only Justin Hamilton in return.

But he might not be just a salary dump for Brooklyn. Seven different voters viewed him as a legitimate starter heading into the 2017-18 campaign, while only two saw him as just a depth piece. If he can space the floor and team up with Hollis-Jefferson to shut down the perimeter, perhaps he could even be worth his $14.8 million payout.

3. Allen Crabbe: 4.63

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 25
  • Position: SG/SF
  • 2016-17 Stats: 10.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-49.95 TPA (for Portland Trail Blazers)
  • Highest Grade: 5 (multiple voters)
  • Lowest Grade: 4 (multiple voters)

Apparently, the Nets have a penchant for collecting overpaid players, absorbing them into the star-free cap space and hoping they blossom into legitimate rotation members who could eventually justify their monstrous contracts. Allen Crabbe is the most promising example, acquired from the Portland Trail Blazers for nothing more than Andrew Nicholson, who was subsequently waived by Rip City.

It only took a little more than a year after Crabbe originally signed a gaudy offer sheet with the Nets, but he finally arrived. Now, can he help?

Most voters seemed to think so. Though no one had Crabbe becoming a solid starter in his new digs, every single member of the voting panel thought he would at least be a top-end backup. And that’s almost certainly because regardless of what he does on defense or when attacking the basket, he can stripe the ball from the perimeter. During his final season with the Blazers, the former California standout took 3.8 triples per game and hit on 44.4 percent of them—numbers only 21 different qualified players throughout all of NBA history have matched for an entire campaign.

2. Jeremy Lin: 5.06

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 29
  • Position: PG
  • 2016-17 Stats: 14.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.4 blocks, 39.14 TPA
  • Highest Grade: 6 (multiple voters)
  • Lowest Grade: 3 (Brian Sampson)

Linsanity is never coming back in full, but that doesn’t mean Jeremy Lin is anything less than a quality rotation member who can serve as a low-level starter (or slightly better) at the point. When he’s healthy, the 29-year-old is still quite adept at attacking the hoop out of the pick-and-roll, and he’s maintained drive-and-kick vision that allows him to involve teammates at all times.

Lin hasn’t become a great shooter and can often look overmatched on the point-preventing end. But so long as he’s remaining in control of his turnover issues and finishing plays out of the pick-and-roll (he finished in the 69.3 percentile by scoring 0.88 points per possession as a PnR ball-handler), he’ll remain an offensive force who can help spark competitive quintets. Don’t overlook the fact that in a limited sample, Brooklyn was 3.5 points per 100 possessions better while this floor general was on the hardwood.

1. D’Angelo Russell: 5.44

  • Age at start of 2017-18: 21
  • Position: PG
  • 2016-17 Stats: 15.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.3 blocks, minus-14.86 TPA (for Los Angeles Lakers)
  • Highest Grade: 7 (multiple voters)
  • Lowest Grade: 4 (Jordan McGillis)

More voters viewed D’Angelo Russell as a high-end starter (two) than a high-end backup (one), which would be far more encouraging if he weren’t the only member of the Brooklyn roster to earn such a lofty mark on even a single ballot. Then again, the Nets surely won’t complain if he blossoms in a new location and proves those optimists correct by continuing to improve, just as he did throughout his second season with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Russell has plenty of bad habits—and we’re not even referring to his alleged lack of leadership:

He’s quite undisciplined on the defensive end and routinely displays atrocious shot-selection with the ball in his hands, often deciding to pull up for contested jumpers rather than passing or attacking the hoop. His turnovers are problematic as well, since he frequently tries to squeeze the rock into tight spaces that develop and disappear in an instant.

But the Nets should be willing to live with these flaws because of the immense upside Russell displays and the manner in which the mistakes occur. They aren’t careless plays, but rather results that stem from a player pushing the limits of his impressive vision and shot-making abilities as he tries to suss out just how much value he can add in certain areas.

 

Who’s rated too high? Who are we selling short? Join the conversation using #CrystalBasketball on Twitter.

Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math and on Facebook.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math or NBA.com.

Many thanks to our entire panel of voters: Andrew Bailey, Arjun Baradwaj, Nick Birdsong, Michael Brock, Tony East, Dan Favale, Adam Fromal, Ryan Jarvis, Jordan McGillis, Tom Rende, Brian Sampson, Adam Spinella, Eric Spyropolous, Tim Stubbs, Frank Urbina, Louis Vicchiollo