#CrystalBasketball: Adam Fromal’s Positive Outlier Votes Heading into the 2021-22 NBA Season
Dating back to the 2017-18 season, NBA Math has endeavored to provide fans with the most accurate—and complete—player rankings found anywhere on the interwebs. Using a 1-to-12 scale and a panel of voters who pay attention to the league as a whole, the #CrystalBasketball project puts players into tiers before averaging the voted-upon scores together to create the ultimate hierarchy.
The project is back for the 2021-22 preseason edition, but not every player features a consensus. Outliers are inevitable when operating with this type of methodology.
With that in mind, NBA Math founder Adam Fromal has a handful of votes that need further explanation.
Markelle Fultz, Orlando Magic
2020-21 Postseason Grade: 4.38
2021-22 Preseason Grade: 4.33
Fromal’s 2021-22 Preseason Grade: 6 (Solid Starter)
This requires a significant leap of faith.
OK, fine. This actually requires at least a few significant leaps of faith.
Since entering the league as the No. 1 pick of the 2017 NBA Draft, Markelle Fultz has been quite disappointing. That much should go without saying.
Due to some combination of mental hurdles and shoulder injuries, the jumper that helped build his stock at Washington abandoned him entirely, forcing him to change his playing style with the Philadelphia 76ers and lean on the other parts of the arsenal that made him such a coveted prospect. Not even two years after arriving in the City of Brotherly Love as the potential finishing piece of the Process-era Sixers, he left for the Orlando Magic for a relatively meager return: Jonathon Simmons, a 2019 second-round pick that became Carsen Edwards and a 2020 first-round pick that turned into Tyrese Maxey.
But since his southward journey, Fultz’s fortunes haven’t changed much.
Injuries have continued to strike, limiting him to 80 games over two seasons as a torn ACL cut short his 2020-21 campaign after just eight appearances. And yet—call it optimism, wishful thinking, pure idiocy, or some other phrase of your choosing—those meager eight appearances provided enough glimmers of hope to believe that the best is still to come for this 23-year-old.
Yes, Fultz is still 23. He won’t turn 24 until May 2022, which makes him younger than incoming rookies Davion Mitchell (Sacramento Kings) and Chris Duarte (Indiana Pacers), as well as more than a handful of rising sophomores. His NBA journey has been checkered by setbacks and rife with disappointments, but writing him off this soon would be foolish.
As an all-important caveat, the flashes we saw during those most recent eight games are just that: flashes.
They’re undoubtedly tantalizing, but they don’t lend themselves to anything more than small-sample-size takeaways and a risky branch on which to climb out. Far too frequently, NBA analysts get unnecessarily trapped by the allure of unrealized potential, setting themselves up for the bitter taste of disappointment when a player turns into a useful piece without ascending to the loftiest of lofty heights once thought achievable (see: Simmons, Ben).
Still, Fultz was willing to shoot from the perimeter during his brief 2020-21 stint, and that’s more than we could say in previous seasons. His long-distance hoists didn’t fall with any semblance of frequency (25.0 percent), but his willingness to let fly without sacrificing his attacking mentality, which led to 4.3 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions that he converted at an encouraging 89.5 percent clip, finally put on display the offensive mentality Philadelphia once deemed worthy of a top overall selection.
Coupled with his unselfish and ever-improving distributing, his 60.6 percent conversion rate within five feet of the basket (featuring plenty of high-level finishes that put his ambidexterity at the rim and preternatural body control on full display) and his active and engaged defense, that lends itself to those feelings of optimism.
Is Fultz going to justify that No. 1 overall pick? In all likelihood, no. His shooting form has undergone fundamental and irreversible alterations, and he’s never going to threaten for three-point titles. Connecting at a league-average rate on notable volume would be a lofty enough goal at this stage of his tumultuous career.
But functioning as a solid starter doesn’t necessarily require all-around ability. Fultz, when threatening defenses with even the possibility of a jumper and his hyper-athletic bursts to the basket, does enough as a scoring threat, distributor and defensive menace that he can still carve out a significant role in an overcrowded backcourt now featuring Cole Anthony, R.J. Hampton and Jalen Suggs.
The shadows may be getting longer, but the clock hasn’t yet struck midnight. It remains too soon to write him off as a possible pseudo-centerpiece of the ongoing Orlando rebuild.
Kevin Porter Jr., Houston Rockets
2020-21 Postseason Grade: 4.85
2021-22 Preseason Grade: 5.56
Fromal’s 2021-22 Preseason Grade: 7 (High-End Starter)
Kevin Porter Jr. is far from a finished product as he enters his age-21 season with the Houston Rockets.
Defensively, he can often present himself as an amalgamation of a turnstile in a highly-populated metro-based subway system and a bright-orange traffic cone in spite of his physical gifts, and that glaring flaw won’t be remedied until he remembers NBA players are actually supposed to pay attention in off-ball situations. Turnovers—both of the bad-pass and lost-ball varieties—can rear their ugly heads far too frequently, even if that’s a natural wart for so many up-and-coming ball-handlers in the fast-paced Association.
But allowing those fixable flaws to supersede the dual-threat potential laying (somewhat) dormant in Porter’s 6’4”, 203-pound frame would be a mistake.
The USC product’s scoring prowess is readily apparent, and he’s put it on full display a few times—never more prominently than when he dropped a 50-burger against the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks on April 29, 2021. That game highlighted his full three-level abilities, featuring Porter attacking the basket en route to a 9-of-11 performance from the line while still finding time to drain some pull-up jumpers and knock down nine triples.
One game is one game is one game, but lest we forget, Porter also racked up 11 assists on that memorable April night, becoming the youngest (by more than two full years) of the 17 players who have racked up a 50/10 showing in NBA history. That passing ability isn’t yet developed enough to put him on par with the other 16, almost all of whom are in or, when eligible, bound for the Hall of Fame, but it does add intrigue by virtue of its novelty.
Porter averaged just 3.6 assists per 100 possessions during his lone year with the Trojans and 4.6 throughout his rookie campaign with the Cleveland Cavaliers. That number skyrocketed to 9.3 during his inaugural go-round in Houston, and the organization is betting it wasn’t a fluke by handing him the reins at point guard for 2021-22.
Though his handle can still be too loose, Porter possesses great vision and an instinctual feel for the game, often passing cutters open rather than waiting a split-second too long and allowing the window to close. Comfortable operating in traffic and creating space for himself, he’s capable of finding spot-up shooters and big men rolling into the lane, and the biggest hindrance to any quest for double-digit dimes may be the overall quality of the Houston roster and the need to let incoming rookie Jalen Green play some isolation ball.
The Rockets don’t yet know what they have in Porter, which means the outside world doesn’t, either. But the upside is both palpable and more easily attained than it would be for most raw players in this situation. Their willingness to feature him this early on in his development speaks volumes.
Grant Riller, Philadelphia 76ers
2020-21 Postseason Grade: 2.08
2021-22 Preseason Grade: 2.25
Fromal’s 2021-22 Preseason Grade: 4 (High-End Backup)
This isn’t just because Grant Riller posted astronomical numbers during his rookie season, averaging 24.0 points, 4.0 assists and only 1.3 turnovers per 36 minutes for the Charlotte Hornets while shooting 66.7 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from downtown. He never missed a free throw. He was one of the rare first-year players to post positive scores in both the offensive and defensive components of Basketball Reference’s box plus/minus metric. His 75.0 true shooting percentage would make Stephen Curry jealous.
Sure, those numbers came in 27 minutes accrued over the course of seven games. What of it?
Obviously, we shouldn’t read too much into such a small sample. And it’s not exactly encouraging that the Hornets, who originally selected Riller out of the College of Charleston with the No. 56 pick of the 2020 NBA Draft, chose to cut ties with the young guard this offseason before the Philadelphia 76ers scooped him up on a two-way contract. It’s also not ideal that Riller suffered a knee injury during Philly’s preseason opener, leaving the proceedings after recording seven points on 3-of-5 shooting.
But once the 24-year-old recovers from surgery to repair his torn meniscus, he should resume the uphill climb, either splitting time between the Sixers and the G League’s Delaware Blue Coats or latching on with a different organization that’s willing to give him a chance to shine.
Riller’s pedigree is nothing to write home about. He came from a mid-major school and entered the NBA draft as an older prospect closer to hearing his name never mentioned than called in the opening round. His athleticism is still a question mark, as are the skills he put on display against largely inferior competition during his time with the Cougars.
And yet, this 6’2”, 190-pound offense-first guard can play.
Riller’s collegiate tape makes him look like a broke man’s James Harden. He thrived in isolation, putting on dribbling clinics against overmatched defenders before knocking down pull-up jumpers or bursting toward the basket, where he could catch the opposition in a pickle, forcing adversaries to choose between giving him a bucket on the interior or ceding an easy dime to a teammate. He asserted himself as an every-level scorer with a dizzying array of offensive tricks despite always featuring most prominently on opposing scouting reports.
Per The Stepien, Riller finished in the 88th percentile as a finisher around the rim, outshining many of his more notable compatriots in the 2020 draft class. Knee trouble in Charlotte prevented him from putting it on full display, but he was also one of the fastest members of that class and routinely showed off impressive burst that allowed him to get a step on virtually any defender. Due to his pick-and-roll comfort and ability to connect on a wide variety of bucket-getting opportunities, he also put enough stress on defenses that he was able to capitalize on his gravitational pull with on-target passes.
None of this has been on display in the NBA to this point. It might take a while longer given his latest injury and need to carve out a rotational opportunity. But Riller isn’t done getting chances in the Association, and all it takes is the right one to assert himself as a delayed draft-day steal.
Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors
2020-21 Postseason Grade: 7.08
2021-22 Preseason Grade: 7.44
Fromal’s 2021-22 Preseason Grade: 9 (All-NBA Candidate)
Whatever your over/under is for Fred VanVleet’s scoring average during the 2021-22 campaign, go ahead and raise it a few points.
The former Wichita State standout has gradually increased his per-game output each and every season he’s spent in the NBA, rising from 2.9 points per contest as a rookie to 19.6 while operating alongside Kyle Lowry throughout the 2020-21 season. Now, with Lowry taking his talents to South Beach, VanVleet has a chance to thrive as the unquestioned leader of the backcourt, setting up a host of talented players while frequently calling his number as he attempts to keep the Toronto Raptors firmly in the midst of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Even though he’s coming off a year in which he shot just 38.9 percent from the field, VanVleet has the chops to pull it off.
Averaging somewhere around 25 points per game is by no means out of the question since the 6’1” guard has honed his all-around skills over the years, thriving in a wide variety of roles that all helped prepare him for this unique opportunity as the lead scoring option for a highly competitive squad.
Sure, VanVleet himself has said that OG Anunoby is Toronto’s No. 1 option when Pascal Siakam is out of the lineup. That’s all well and good. The ball isn’t going to stick in Anunoby’s hands for too long each possession, and the onus will be on the former Shocker to run the show, distributing the rock between the many developing wing options while doing plenty of twine-tickling of his own. It’s in that role that his ability to average 6.3 assists and only 1.8 turnovers will pay off, that his knack for scoring in an off-ball setting while also creating off the bounce will shine.
With Earl Watson, who Devin Booker credits for his own growth, helping his development continue, VanVleet should thrive for the Nick Nurse-helmed Raptors.
Toronto’s scheme has long relied on having multiple initiators (Lowry and DeMar DeRozan eventually became Lowry and VanVleet), but this team doesn’t yet have another reliable option unless Goran Dragic turns back the tides of Father Time or Malachi Flynn proves ready sooner than expected. It does, however, have VanVleet, who has steadily blossomed into a pick-and-roll asset and showcased tremendous chemistry with the ever-improving Chris Boucher.
Coming off finishing in the 69th percentile as a spot-up shooter during the 2020-21 season and the 72nd percentile one year prior, the guard should also be the willing beneficiary of the increased offensive responsibilities of Anunoby and a healthy Siakam. Neither player is prepared to fill a full-fledged shot-creating role, which makes kick-out passes to a capable catch-and-shoot weapon that much more important.
Even if VanVleet doesn’t blossom as a scorer, making the most of his touches without the volume necessarily growing, he’d still be a high-quality distributor who threatens All-Defensive inclusion annually. Grading him as an All-NBA candidate may be optimistic, relying on strides as a finisher around the hoop and a better floater game, but it’s in no way unrealistic given the linear progression already on display through his first five professional seasons.
Robert Woodard II, Sacramento Kings
2020-21 Postseason Grade: 1.58
2021-22 Preseason Grade: 2.29
Fromal’s 2021-22 Preseason Grade: 4 (High-End Backup)
Is this too much of a flier? Maybe.
Robert Woodard II essentially redshirted during his rookie year out of Mississippi State, playing 45 total minutes over 13 appearances with the Sacramento Kings and spending the vast majority of his time either on the bench or with the G League’s Austin Spurs. Over the course of 12 appearances (six starts) in the developmental league, he averaged 16.8 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.7 blocks while grading out as a clear positive on the defensive end.
He doesn’t have much of a path to playing time with the Kings, either.
Not only is Sacramento head coach Luke Walton likely to experiment with some three-guard lineups following the arrival of Davion Mitchell alongside De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, but Buddy Hield, Maurice Harkless, and Harrison Barnes should be higher up in the pecking order at small forward, and the frontcourt rotation features another log jam.
That lack of opportunity, though, isn’t necessarily indicative of a lack of ability on Woodard’s part.
The 22-year-old is busting at the seams with physical tools, possessing a 6’6”, 235-pound frame, a 7’2” wingspan and plus athleticism. At the collegiate level, he asserted himself as a versatile defender capable of sticking with quicker guards and bodying up more physical forwards when he wasn’t dominating the glass. But what’s between the ears was often as impressive as those long arms and powerful leaping ability; Woodard routinely made the proper reads in a wide variety of defensive situations, understanding and adjusting to the offense’s desired angles of attack and showing an uncanny ability to help off his man and still recover to contest a kick-out look.
The former Bulldog’s defensive ability alone should allow him to stick in the rotation as soon as he’s afforded a legitimate chance, and developing into a three-and-D stalwart would only further those chances.
Woodard rarely creates his own shot, but he has spot-up ability and enough ball-handling savvy to put the ball on the floor against overaggressive close-outs. His 64.1 percent rate at the foul line is probably more accurate than his 42.9 three-point percentage as a collegiate sophomore, but his intelligent shot selection and all-around feel for the game should be enough to ensure that he’s never an offensive liability.
Woodard acquitted himself nicely alongside Mitchell, Neemias Queta and Jahmi’us Ramsey in Las Vegas during Sacramento’s Summer League championship run, and he’s ready for minutes of actual significance. Whether those come in Sacramento will be a function of roster construction above all, which means his first true opportunity may come with a different organization on a different contract.
But the ability is here to stay even if the physical location changes.
Other Positive Outlier Votes Worth Mentioning
- Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: The improvements shown throughout his rookie season should keep coming during his sophomore campaign. Edwards’ shot selection and off-ball defensive awareness have already grown substantially, and the physical tools are off the charts.
- Tyrese Haliburton, Sacramento Kings: Though beloved by anyone giving even the tiniest bit of credence to basketball analytics, Haliburton still hasn’t seen his reputation catch up to his actual production. The idea that he’s just a jack-of-all-trades player is misleading; he’s already shown significant upside as a featured player capable of posting big numbers with more opportunity to self-create.
- Monte Morris, Denver Nuggets: This isn’t just a product of the opportunity he’ll receive while filling in for a rehabbing Jamal Murray. Morris is one of the highest-floor non-stars you’ll find in an NBA rotation, and he shows a willingness to take more calculated risks each and every season. Get ready for a steady stream of pull-up jumpers, passes into tight windows, and heady two-way play from the poor man’s version of Chris Paul.