The Heat skipper is the runaway COY winner of the second-half, but this isn’t a half-season award. The total package matters, and it’s hard to envision Miami’s looking strong enough to get Spo the honor after its abysmal 11-30 start. The last 10 winners have averaged 58.3 wins—the Heat would have to win out just to reach 48.

Miami is more of a playoff-caliber team than its record indicates.

There’s no doubt he’s taking a roster full of guys most fans couldn’t name and pushing them to heights no one expected. If Miami continues this run and gets his team into the playoffs, I wouldn’t be shocked if this turns into a Doc Rivers in 2000 situation, when he won Coach of the Year by getting a terrible Orlando team to a .500 record.

Still, no one has done more with less than Spoelstra, and that’s deserving of some votes. But it’s hard to imagine a low playoff seed garnering Coach of the Year status. The ironic thing is while Spoelstra’s putting together one of the better coaching performances we’ve seen, I’m pretty sure Pat Riley wants to kill him for it. It’s going to be one of the deeper drafts in memory—especially near the top—and the Heat looked destined for a top-five pick.

Zigging where everyone else has zagged can be a shrewd way of uncovering market inefficiencies, but three-point shooting is a non-negotiable in today’s game. Without it, lanes are too clogged to attack with dribble penetration and off-ball cuts. The grit-and-grind Grizzlies have probably enjoyed the most spacing-deprived success recently, and even they’ve recognized the need to modernize their offense.

The last four champions have been top-five teams in three-point makes, percentage or both. That pattern is almost guaranteed to repeat this season.

How good could this team be? I dunno, but you can do it and be OK.

The Bulls’ problem is that they lack strong post play as well. So if you’re looking for the ceiling of a team with a bunch of ball-dominant wings without great shooting, then yes, it’s probably a fringe playoff contender like Chicago.

That leaves only the Timberwolves, who have defeated the Dubs both this season and last. Minnesota has the best player on all four rosters in Karl-Anthony Towns, a crazy-athletic rising two-way star in Andrew Wiggins and two defense-first point guards in Ricky Rubio and Kris Dunn to harass Stephen Curry. Those aren’t the ingredients for a series win, but it could be enough for a few tense moments and maybe even a Minnesota victory.

This probably doesn’t change if it’s the Spurs, though they might rather face the Mavs than the Wolves. There’s more inexperience for Gregg Popovich to exploit against Minnesota, but also more athleticism to deal with.

Dallas can’t match the Warriors’ firepower. Portland’s defense holds the team back. The Minnesota Timberwolves have one of the best point differentials since the All-Star break, but the team can’t run with Golden State over a seven-game series. Out of the bunch, the Denver Nuggets pose the biggest threat, though inconsistencies plague them. Neither Steve Kerr nor Gregg Popovich has anything to worry about until the second round.

Now, if the Warriors drop to second and have to face the Grizzlies, then we’re talking. That’s a bad matchup for them. San Antonio might want to jump into that top seed to avoid a potential matchup with the Thunder. Both teams should survive if those matchups materialize, but they won’t be easy first-round series.

Talent is the great equalizer in the playoffs, and no one outside of Portland is bringing talent like Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Additionally, an engaged and focused Jusuf Nurkic is a mountain of a basketball player to deal with, and neither Golden State nor San Antonio (especially if LaMarcus Aldridge is out) has a player who can match Nurk in terms of strength in the post. Dallas is also dangerous with the playoff experience of Dirk Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle.

But without a doubt, I think both San Antonio and Golden State would prefer the inexperienced Nuggets or Timberwolves.

I’m tempted to say Goran Dragic, because casual fans don’t appreciate how good he is and how scalding-hot he’s been (21.7 points on 52.3/45.4 shooting, 5.5 assists over his last 25 games). But since the Dragon is getting some recognition—Eastern Conference Player of the Month nominee in February—I’ll spotlight two Heat players who aren’t getting enough: The Brothers Johnson.

Tyler and James, neighbors in real life and on the reserve unit, are the lifeblood of Miami’s bench. Between them, they’ve been good for 25.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.8 blocks per game. Spo said recently neither can probably take Sixth Man of the Year honors on his own, but they’d walk away with the reserve tandem award if one existed.

James’ playmaking helps the offense run smoothly as Tyler’s development at point guard continues. Tyler’s hops allow him to punctuate some of James’ best passes. It’s been an incredible partnership to see mature, and the fact the Heat don’t lose much (if anything) when they bring on the reserves is among this star-less squad’s greatest strengths.

Those numbers might not be sustainable, but they do speak to an increased comfort level and confidence. Even if his shooting falls to average from behind the arc, it’s still much better than anyone expected so soon. Add to this his increased ability to defend the 2, and Brown could end up being a surprise three-and-D option for Boston in the playoffs.

The Nuggets are an offensive powerhouse when Nikola Jokic is on the floor, but when he steps off, Denver looks a bit lost on who to go to for scoring. Lately, Murray has provided that much-needed punch from the reserves. The Nuggets are all in on the playoffs, and they’ll need Murray to play a vital part their run. Beyond just this year’s playoffs, this run is a glimpse into the Nuggets’ future in determining if Jokic and Murray are the players to build around. The team’s pretty convinced about Jokic, and a big stretch run from Murray would eliminate what little doubt there may be about his prospects as well.

Let me find a four-sided coin before submitting my Western Conference pick. I guess I’ll go with the Nuggets, largely because of their current cushion. It’d help if they played defense every once in a while, but if you’re going to lean heavily toward the offensive end, at least a talent like Nikola Jokic allows you to do so. Their schedule is fairly manageable the rest of the way, and their roster features a good mix of seasoned vets and rising prospects.

I’ll say the final three playoff seeds in the East go to the Pacers, Pistons and Heat. Indy isn’t playing the most inspiring ball, but the schedule sets up for a comfortable landing. The top-10 defenses and coaching experience for Detroit and Miami inspires more confidence than even Giannis Antetokounmpo can create in Milwaukee without Jabari Parker.

In the east I’m going to go with the Bucks. I have no reason for thinking that beyond my personal desire to see Giannis Antetokounmpo go one-on-one with Lebron James for at least four games. The idea of that is far more exciting than some lame revenge narrative that would come with either a LeBron vs. Miami or LeBron vs. Wade series.