Comfort is Crucial for Indiana Pacers’ Breakout Star Victor Oladipo

Finding a place where you are wanted is one of life’s most basic pursuits. A sense of belonging can do wonders for someone’s self-worth and productivity. In Walden, Henry David Thoreau says on the subject, “Man wanted a home, a place for warmth, or comfort, first of physical warmth, then the warmth of the affections.” In 1978,  Cheap Trick put it another way: “I Want You to Want Me.”

Throughout his entire NBA career, Victor Oladipo has never been wanted, which stands in stark contrast to the sense of belonging he felt during his collegiate days at Indiana.

Since arriving at basketball’s highest level, however, this Hoosier has never found his niche.

Selected No. 2 overall in the 2013 NBA Draft (a class regarded by many as one of the worst this millennium) by the Orlando Magic, he was largely considered the safest pick in a bad lot. Many fans wanted to take Nerlens Noel, who seemed like the most talented player, but he came with injury concerns. The Magic were just beginning the rebuild kickstarted by the departure of superstar Dwight Howard the previous year and had no real sense of identity. Selecting Oladipo was a bit of as mystery. Was the 6’4” defensive specialist a point guard, a shooting guard or some combination of the two? Could he be the primary ball-handler in the future? Most importantly, was he a go-to scorer who could carry a team?

The Magic never found satisfactory answers to any of these questions and shipped him to Oklahoma City after three seasons in which he averaged a respectable 15.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. But Orlando was an organization in disarray anyway, going through three head coaches in 14 months and a slew of personnel turnover on the court. Perhaps a fresh start in a more stable situation would let Oladipo, who had shown flashes of brilliance in his first three seasons, flourish as a running mate for Russell Westbrook.

That didn’t work either.

Westbrook dominated the ball, setting a single-season record for usage at 41.7 percent. In his lone OKC go-round, Oladipo never found his rhythm, likely because he couldn’t get the ball enough to establish any consistency, posting career lows in both usage percentage and player efficiency rating (PER).

Before his disappointing year, the Thunder had inked him to a huge deal, to the tune of $21 million dollars per year through the 2020-21 season—a move they now wished to renege upon. When Paul George became available, they leapt at the chance to be freed from the financial burden of their own making. And so, in the summer of 2017, Oladipo and fellow ignoble rotation player Domantas Sabonis were dealt to the Indiana Pacers in return for George.

The Pacers passed on other deals that had seemingly better returns to land the wayward guard. One rumored swap would have sent Gary Harris to Indiana. Another, reported by ESPN.com’s Jeff Goodman, would have netted the Pacers Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and three first -round picks from the Boston Celtics. Ostensibly, Oladipo was a player Pacers’ general manager Kevin Pritchard coveted both because of his long-term deal and his Indiana roots.

For the IU alum who spent three seasons playing for the Hoosiers, this was a return home. A return to a place he was wanted. And the difference has been astounding. 

“This state is special to me, like my second home,” he told Indianapolis Star columnist Gregg Doyel.

The Pacers are 9-8, and in ninth place in the Eastern Conference. It isn’t exactly rare air, but they’ve already exceeded expectations. They have quality wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers, San Antonio Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves, Memphis Grizzlies  and Detroit Pistons—all potential playoff teams—and it is in no small part because of Oladipo’s development as a scorer.

He is averaging 22.6 points per game (16th best in the league and his best mark in his five seasons), as well as career highs in almost every scoring category: field-goal attempts (17.6), field-goal percentage (46.0), three-point percentage (44.6) and free-throw attempts (4.9). The advanced numbers are no less impressive, ranking him 10th overall in usage percentage. According to NBA Math’s TPA Database, he has added 24.15 points on the offensive end, good for 37th in that category.

All of this development begs a question: Has Oladipo improved, or is he outperforming situationally deflated career marks as a result of some early hot shooting?

Unquestionably, these shooting numbers are unsustainable. Oladipo started out blazing hot in his first nine games, going 75-of-150 from the field (50 percent), including 24-of-49 from behind the arc (49 percent). For a shooter whose career averages stand at 43.6 percent overall and 35.2 percent from three, this is a pretty sizable jump.

Naturally, after the swell of riding the “small sample size” wave subsided, he returned to numbers that much more accurately reflect his lifetime marks, going 42.0 percent from the floor and 39.5 percent from three-point range over the last eight games. The fall off in shooting percentages might be indicative of a coming return to normalcy, but the fifth-year player has shown some legitimate improvement in other areas that could be solid evidence of real growth.   

He is an evolved player in both efficiency and maturity. Last season, 47.8 percent of his points came out of situations in which Oladipo took zero dribbles. Those possessions are indicative of catch-and-shoot situations, usually earmarked for off-ball players like he was last season. But this year, that number has declined drastically to 34.7 percent, showing a large shift in how he’s utilized in the newly minted Indiana offense.

He’s now taking the ball to the rim without hesitation and converting on 60.9 percent of shots inside five feet, good enough for 27th in the league among players who attempt more than five per game and on par with offensive maestro James Harden. He’s also shooting in more effective areas of the floor, with 58.6 percent of his 17.6 shots per game coming either at the rim or from three-point range. By limiting mid-range attempts and shooting career highs in the paint and from deep, Oladipo has become the most efficient version of himself. 

The numbers aren’t the only place you see improvement, either.

Oladipo has dropped some weight and gotten shredded, and the result is a lean, mean, rim-running machine. He looks more comfortable taking the ball to the basket than ever before and has become adept at finding a seam in the defense from the top of the key, then exploiting it to get into the lane—an invaluable skill for a combo guard. Watch on this play how he attacks the teeth of the defense without a screen to create space, relying on quickness and length to score in amongst three Grizzlies. Once he gets JaMychal Green on his back hip, he has no hesitation getting to the cup:

Drives like the one above show a lot more aggression and confidence. Last season, he only shot 57 percent in the paint, and one of his major issues was attacking defenses while running downhill. On this play from last season, Oladipo Euro-steps to create space instead of going into the body of Clint Capela or using the rim to shield a block attempt, allowing the Houston Rockets center to recover off his back foot and contest the layup:

Even setting shooting aside for a moment, Oladipo has had a profound impact on the Pacers’ offense in myriad ways this season.

Sure, he’s the team’s leading scorer and has produced the most points in four of the seven Indiana victories. But his most impressive feat might be spearheading large runs and finding his way into each of the top six five-man units in plus/minus. Most of these runs don’t come from transition baskets or turnovers. The Pacers actually tend to play slower when they are most effective., and Oladipo handles most of the offensive heavy lifting in these half-court sets, using his ability to get into the paint to create buckets for himself and teammates.  This is exactly what Pritchard and the Pacers front office had in mind when they paid such a high price to acquire him.

But his return to his old college stomping grounds hasn’t been a complete two-way success; Indiana is a middling team in the sad-sack Eastern Conference, and its defense is to blame. The Pacers are just a downright bad defensive team, ranking 23rd in opponent points per game (107.9) and 20th in defensive rating (106.4). Oladipo has been a passable defender, with opponents shooting 42.6 percent on possessions where he ‘s the primary stopper.  But he’s taking possessions off, particularly when away from the ball, and is sometimes slow on hedges and rotations.

More than likely, it just comes down to effort.

Carrying the offensive load on a night-to-night basis can be tiresome work, and resting on the defensive end isn’t exactly a new revelation for offensive players. Four of the nine players (James Harden, D’Angelo Russell, Kristaps Porzingis and DeMar DeRozan) who rank in front of Oladipo in usage percentage have negative “defensive points saved” scores, according to NBA Math’s TPA database. It isn’t uncommon, especially on teams with limited offensive options like the Pacers, for workhorses on one side of the ball to have a letdown on the other.

Taking the total package into account, the Pacers are likely more than satisfied watching their hometown man make the leap into an offensive dynamo. Has Oladipo improved so much because he feels important to his rebuilding team? It is hard to say. Stats can’t really quantify whether a player is in a healthy mental state. But the results speak for themselves: He is having a career year in a place where he feels like he belongs.

After his October 30 game-winning three-pointer against the San Antonio Spurs, Oladipo stared out over the home crowd and declared “This is my city. My city.”

He might be right.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on November 20.