Coach Spins’ Clipboard: Underrated Rebuilding Pieces
I’m not big on zodiac signs, but I’m pretty sure 2018 is the year of the tank.
The bottom third of the league has been scratching and clawing its way to the bottom for the better part of the last month, and there’s no sign of letting up before the season ends. Eight teams boast between 19 and 24 wins, and they are a combined 19-61 in their last 10 contests. The Phoenix Suns have lost 11 in a row; the Memphis Grizzlies have lost 22 of 23. The poor Sacramento Kings are .500 in March, proving they can’t even tank right, but that’s a horse of a different color. This season features more bad teams than any in recent memory.
We could dwell on that and the league’s need to adjust rules to prevent this type of season from recurring, but there is a better use of our time: focusing on some of the hidden talents buried within these rebuilds. Out of each self-destruction that takes place on a roster, one silver lining is born. It may not be to the tune of a superstar piece like Joel Embiid, and it may not be a surprisingly ready rookie like Donovan Mitchell, but important building blocks are out there.
Today we focus on four teams that have some sturdier, surprising and non-superstar players ready to alleviate the burdens of losing.
1. Chicago’s Future Glue Guy
In 37 games since January 1, this Bulls player is averaging some pretty decent numbers: scoring 11.4 points per game in 26.7 minutes, shooting 38.9 percent from deep, putting together 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, only 1.5 turnovers and a team-best plus-minus over that span (minus-1.4). He’s had three or more treys in 12 of these 37 contests and has gone for over 20 points four times.
Who is it? None other than Denzel Valentine, of course.
The former Michigan State Spartan has come on strong over these last few months after a difficult go of it as a rookie. His shooting numbers are way up this season, and he’s gotten really hot in a few key games that have kept the Bulls competitive. With Fred Hoiberg running some high-octane offense and keeping multiple ball-handlers on the floor, Denzel needed to become a reliable three-point shooter to show his worth. He’s all that and more.
What Valentine does best is impact the game in ways other than simply scoring the ball. His assist to usage rate, a metric from Cleaning the Glass that measures how frequently a player gets an assist in the times they have the ball in their hands, is in the 94th percentile among all players at his position across the entire season. He’s got a little bit of young Andre Iguodala to his offense, albeit not quite to the same degree.
Valentine absolutely loves to dart off screens and catch the ball along the three-point line while moving to his right. Being right-handed, he has a little extra time to squeeze off his very catapult-like jump shot, and his long, sweeping pivots into those catch-and-shoots require every second he can spare before launch. The Bulls run a lot of Horns sets and other actions to get him moving to his right for these types of shots, jetting off screens and handoffs to get help freeing himself:
Good teams that scout the action will chase Valentine around the screen now instead of daring him to shoot. Now Denzel has a head of steam and gets downhill towards the rim. He’s an incredible passer when he gets into the middle of the floor and can find tight windows to gift-wrap passes for rolling big men:
Beyond just his impact over this three-month stretch, Valentine has made great strides to improve an area he was particularly weak last season: finishing. He’s raised his field-goal percentage at the rim by eight percentage points (up to 58 percent) and his mid-range game from 28 percent to 40 this season, according to Cleaning the Glass.
That mid-range development is key, especially as teams start to realize Valentine is a 40 percent shooter from deep and needs to be run off the three-point line. Whenever the Bulls throw him into those dribble handoffs and defenses lunge out towards him, he utilizes a bevy of slick dribble moves to get to the mid-range, then pops off an old-man-like floater or running hook shot too quick for defenders to react. He’s even mastered the art of snaking already:
While Valentine has been great in these actions designed for him, he’s still utilized most frequently as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, which accounts for 27.6 percent of his usage, according to Synergy. When opponents key in their wing defenders on the main pick-and-roll attack (a la Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn), Hoiberg inverts his attack to allowing Valentine to be the main facilitator. It’s a page out of the Stan Van Gundy Orlando Magic playbook when he’d leverage Hedo Turkoglu after teams would focus on Jameer Nelson.
Valentine’s been an efficient scorer out of ball screens, rarely turns the rock over and has a keen ability to play the roll man and not simply settle for kick-outs to the shooters surrounding the play. Once again, he’s punished teams that choose to go under picks: His effective field-goal percentage in those situations is north of 70. It’s a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” feeling now with Valentine. He’s such a good passer and creator for a wing that chasing him off the line almost plays into his strengths, yet he picks teams apart from behind the line when that’s the poison they select.
Give Hoiberg a ton of credit for how he utilizes Valentine, as well.
Long term, there’s hope to play Valentine in switchy wing lineups, as well as next to multiple scoring threats. He’s always been an elite rebounder for a wing despite being only 6’5″, a trait that should allow him to guard more physical wings and not have to be hidden at the 2. His foot speed isn’t ideal, and as the Bulls get more competent backcourt players, they’ll get the most out of Valentine. He’s proved over the last few months that it’s always too early to give up on a player after their rookie season.
2. Dillon Brooks’ Sophistication
Speaking of guys who are jack-of-all-trades masters, Memphis has found a steal in Dillon Brooks. A second-round pick in 2017 out of Oregon, Brooks has become everything from a sturdy individual defender to a one-on-one scorer late in the shot clock, an adept passer out of ball screens to a respectable catch-and-shoot threat. The 6’6″ rookie is hitting more than 36 percent of his treys.
It’s the subtle nature of Brooks’ abilities that makes him a long-term fit in Memphis. Cuts like these, which completely catch the defense napping, are indicative of guys who simply know how to play basketball and don’t get too robotic on the court:
These cuts are great out of designed actions. A cut across the defense from the45-degree mark on the wing (named for the angle from the front of the rim) into the lane can confuse coverages on side pick-and-rolls or the pick-and-pop. The Grizz get into a two-man game, and you can see the Denver Nuggets start to prepare for the side ball screen as Jamal Murray jumps to keep his man toward the sideline. As he does that and Nikola Jokic drops to protect the paint, Brooks’ defender (Will Barton) naturally drifts to Marc Gasol, who resides one pass away.
Barton and Jokic have a combined four eyes staring at the ball, which allows Brooks to slice in unnoticed. His timing is impeccable, and combined with a savvy ball fake from Tyreke Evans, the Nuggets get caught with nobody at the rim. It’s a simple basketball play that’s becoming more common in today’s NBA, but it takes a pretty headstrong rookie to sneak through the first lines of defense.
Memphis may have something with a long-term bench-and-starter hybrid lineup down the line. Despite a wretched performance as a team, the five-man unit of Andrew Harrison, Evans, Brooks, JaMychal Green and Gasol is an impressive plus-13 in 375 minutes together. There may be something there amidst the rubble of J.B. Bickerstaff’s woeful lineup management late in the season. It’s been a train wreck all year, but Brooks is one silver lining to be proud of. There’s something incredibly fluid about the way he moves and how he plays the game.
Keep an eye on this kid.
3. Jarrett Allen, more than just a dunker
We usually talk more about rookies who put other guys in body bags, but somehow Jarrett Allen has slipped through the cracks. He’s an uber-athletic rookie center playing 20 minutes per game and posting per-36 averages of 15 and 10. The upside is clear, given how he can finish off the pick-and-roll. He’s not a great screener yet, but the threat of having such an athletic big man cruising down the lane opens up so much for his teammates.
In a short time, Allen has become adept at finding other ways to create scoring opportunities for his teammates. Head coach Kenny Atkinson employs him as a screener on almost every possession; whether he screens on the ball or off, the role is simple: Get teammates open and capitalize when there’s open space near the rim.
But the rookie has taken things a step further and found out some tricks of the trade that make his teammates better. This little jog into a rub screen in semi-transition is a coach’s dream:
Go back and watch the highlights of the D’Angelo Russell triple-double against the Toronto Raptors from Friday and focus on the gravity of Allen as a screener, cutter and roll man. The threat he provides in the lane and the willingness he has to constantly set screens opened up the majority of Russell’s makes. That extra space Allen provides is the perfect compliment to Russell’s more grounded mid-range arsenal.
This time of year, finding small pearls like this for youngsters on losing teams is enough to get excited about.
4. Burke finding a niche
Trey Burke is a unique addition to this list. He’s already 25 and in his fifth NBA season, so classifying him as a young player in the league is a bit of a stretch. It’s also no secret that the former lottery pick fizzled out in Utah after floundering as the starting point guard, and he never quite meshed last year as a backup for the Washington Wizards.
The New York Knicks gave Burke another shot, and that investment is paying dividends for them right now. He’s thrived in his role as a scoring point guard, playing with the ball in his hands and having an offense constructed around his creation. Through nearly 500 minutes on the season, Trey is netting per-36-minute career-bests in scoring (21.9 points), assists (7.5) and turnovers (1.9).
Burke, like the rest of the Knicks’ roster, takes a ton of mid-range jumpers—somewhat of a cardinal sin within the analytics community nowadays. But those are shots that he can make, which means they hold more value than simply chucking up poor attempts at the rim simply because they’re better in theory. A player of his size must be able to finish in the mid-range, or else his shot will be sent into the fifth row multiple times a game.
Burke is now 50 percent in the mid-range, according to his Cleaning the Glass page.
Burke’s new look featuring some cornrows has drawn Allen Iverson comparisons, but let’s not jump the gun too much here. Nevertheless, one area where the comparison is pretty difficult to avoid comes via incredibly quick step-backs in the mid-range—an unbelievable counter to the speed that allows him to score amongst the trees inside:
The missing piece for Burke would be his defense. He’s always going to be undersized and lacking the bulk to bang with anyone off a switch. But there are legitimate flashes of hounding perimeter defense that provide cause for optimism:
New York has a glut of average point guards on their roster and needs to find ways to manage a long-term rotation. Burke and Frank Ntilikina play well together, and that means we should be seeing the former in a Knicks uniform long beyond the end of this season.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of Synergy Sports Tech, NBA.com or basketball-reference, and are current as of March 26, 2018.