Coach Spins’ Clipboard: Trade Deadline Targets
The NBA Twittersphere is abuzz with rumors of who may go where at next month’s trade deadline. Yes, even coaches like me still enjoy a good mock-trade scenario from time to time. The first half of the 2017-18 NBA season has helped separate the teams that are looking to sell from those looking to buy, and we’re getting a clearer picture of which players may be available on the market before February 9.
This week’s clipboard focuses on some under-appreciated or seldom noted aspects of some individual players who could find themselves wearing a different jersey in just a few weeks.
1. Tyreke Evans, Multi-Faceted
A quick recap of Tyreke Evans’ nine-year career…
Evans was the made the No. 4 pick by the Sacramento Kings in 2009, averaging 20.0 points, 5.8 assists and 5.3 rebounds en route to Rookie of the Year honors during the 2009-10 season. His three-point shooting was always his downfall; during his four seasons with Sacramento, he shot 27 percent from deep while his raw assist numbers fell each season. The New Orleans Pelicans signed him away on a lucrative deal, only for Evans to become a super-sub behind the likes of Eric Gordon and Jrue Holiday. His lack of shooting didn’t mesh with franchise cornerstone Anthony Davis, and he played only 51 games in New Orleans over the final two years of his contract as injuries derailed his trajectory. Then they dumped him to the Kings (again) as salary filler in the DeMarcus Cousins trade.
But this summer, the Memphis Grizzlies scooped him up as a bargain-bin flier.
Many don’t realize over the last two years, Evans shot 37 percent from three. Or that he held a two-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio. Evans was effective in New Orleans later in his career, learning to be more of a wing than a ball-dominant combo guard. Now the Grizzlies are reaping the benefits of that shift in his style of play. Evans has exploded with more playing time and the good fortune of being healthy. He’s put up high-quality numbers this season, averaging 19.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 41 percent from three and 50 percent from two-point range.
We shouldn’t be surprised by these gaudy numbers that come with the opportunity Memphis has presented. Sure, the shooting is an upgrade from his splits of the last two years, but he’s been an improving marksman for years—a development often overshadowed by his frustrating injury history. Evans was always a good free-throw shooter, which is usually one of the first places to inspect for clues as to whether progression of a jumper is possible. He’s also better on pull-ups than catch-and-shoot attempts, as he can control his own rhythm with the dribble rather than have to do his work pre-catch.
All this explosion from Tyreke’s offense tends to overshadow just how solid a defender he is. An athletic and lanky 6’7″, Evans can guard multiple spots on the wing, corral ball-handlers, chase shooters off screens and even switch onto posts. In a league where positional versatility is paramount and defensive schemes incorporate switching as strategy more frequently than ever, his skill set is highly valued at this juncture.
Part of the difficulty of finding positionally sound defenders who can incorporate all those skills well is knowing that the players understand how to rotate and contest shots from every spot. For example, rotating to help on a drive off a post player is different than a perimeter player. Being a help defender and rim-protector challenging in the restricted area brings different challenges than slithering through screens while chasing a slimy shooter.
Evans navigates both with the aura of a battle-tested veteran. Watch here as Tyreke starts a possession battling against Domantas Sabonis in the post after a switch. Sabonis flips sides of the floor, and the ball gets driven across the lane to where Evans was. He is able to disengage from wrestling with Sabonis and provides a textbook arc challenge, jumping straight in the air, absorbing contact squarely with his chest and still finding a way to get his hand on the ball:
Memphis signed Tyreke this summer to a one-year deal with its bi-annual exception, meaning the team doesn’t have his Bird rights and must carve out space underneath the salary cap in order to retain him. With that proposition looking less likely by the day, the prospects of the Grizz trading Evans by the deadline grow closer and closer to certainty. Evans won’t be able to average the monstrous stat lines he puts up in Memphis on a nightly basis anywhere else, but he should be a heavily sought-after veteran for a team that might have a low-end first-round pick to deal away.
The best way to utilize Evans, though, is within a switching scheme where he can leverage all his defensive skills and neutralize mismatches that get attacked so frequently in tight postseason games.
2. Derrick Favors Up-Tempo Basketball
Get it? It’s a pun…
In all seriousness, how Favors has gotten pushed out in Utah is a bit of a travesty. Sure, Rudy Gobert is better and a franchise cornerstone worth building around. The Jazz have tried to cram the two of them into the same lineup, but those duos haven’t worked at all. In 237 minutes where they’ve shared the floor with Ricky Rubio, they’re a minus-71 and shoot 31 percent from deep, according to NBA.com’s lineup trackers. Something needs to change.
Still, Favors, the former No. 3 overall pick in the 2010 NBA draft, is shooting a career-high 55 percent from the field this year while putting up respectable per-36-minute averages of 16 points, nine rebounds and two assists. He’s on pace to set his career mark for assists and is doing so while boasting a positive assist-to-turnover ratio for the first time since joining the pros. He’s proved productive when not sharing the court with Gobert and as an offensive anchor for the Jazz.
Utah has been a slow-paced team under head coach Quin Snyder, choosing to out-execute in the half-court and maximize the minutes starters can log together. As Favors, an unrestricted free agent who is undoubtedly moving on from Salt Lake City at the end of the season, is producing and putting up numbers, he’ll be one name many teams target and the Jazz look to move on from.
He should hope to wind up with a squad that will get out and run more often.
Favors is a whopping 14-of-17 in transition this season—not a large sample size, but more of an indictment on the Jazz’ style and personnel than on him. Big men who run the floor always need guards and wings to push tempo and get them the ball when they do. He’s not the fastest guy in the world, but he runs hard and seems to constantly beat defenses to the rim. As teammates get dribble penetration, he gets easy dunks as other trailers drop down the lane. Credit Rudy Gobert for making this pass, but a full-time move to center for Favors means more playmakers get to drop dimes like these to him:
Count me in on the Free Favors movement. The dude had six transition field-goal attempts all of last season. Six! The worst guy on your team at the local YMCA gets that in a week. Hopefully, Favors lands in the right home and gets to play a more face-up, rim-attacking and up-tempo style. His raw numbers—and likely his perception—would increase as a result.
3. Devin Harris, World’s Best Backdoor Cutter
My friend Coach Daniel recently added a video on the brilliance of Devin Harris and his backdoor cuts for the Dallas Mavericks. It’s a great example of why he’s such a smart and cagey veteran:
Seriously textbook stuff from Harris. Once a defender turns his back to the guard, he bolts toward the rim—usually along the baseline—and is an adept enough playmaker to either score or move the ball like a hot potato as the defense reacts to his cut.
Harris is under contract for $4.4 million this year and will be a free agent come July. Dallas is far out of the playoff race and could look to flip a veteran like him for a second-round pick or straight up release Harris and allow him to choose his next suitor. Bottom line: He’ll be on a new team this spring and should be slicing through defenses with his timely cuts into the postseason.
4. Nikola Mirotic The Passer
With little surprise, the hot-shooting start of Nikola Mirotic is receiving a ton of attention. The 6’10” stretch big man has torched opponents early and provided a mini-spark that pulled the Chicago Bulls out of last place in the Eastern Conference. Ever since the contract standoff in the summer and the in-practice fight with teammate Bobby Portis that left Mirotic battered and bruised, he’s been looking for an exit from the Windy City.
Mirotic ranks in the 99th percentile in spot-up jumpers—a skill that makes him one of the best types of additions at the trade deadline. But few people talk about the expert passing that makes him a safe player to target and a role guy who fits into any type of scheme offensively. He’s a solid post scorer (0.92 points per possession) and gets a decent run out of back-to-the-basket opportunities, especially against switching teams.
Give Mirotic the ball, and he’ll find shooters around him at a high rate. He has 10 assists and zero turnovers when passing out of the post, and he routinely locates the open man. Mirotic only posts smaller players off switches, which are situations where defenses send an extra defender to help their undersized teammate. That means guys like Nikola have to be adept at quickly identifying where the help comes from and hitting the open shooter while he’s still uncovered.
He got the Pacers on that a few times in their matchup late in December, zipping the ball to the opposite corner:
Defensive worries will still exist with Mirotic wherever he ends up; he is a bit slow against mobile 4s and not big enough to anchor a unit as the 5. But he’s much more versatile than just being a spot-up big man. Put him in ball screens, let him pick-and-pop or drop him into the post and exploit a switch.
Mirotic may be the best “bang for your buck” addition at the deadline.
5. George Hill, Going Right
Speaking of lights-out shooting, George Hill remains the league’s most effective three-point sniper as the calendar turns into 2018. He’s a versatile guard on the offensive end: a point guard who’s never been ball-dominant and is best-served flanking great offensive players who are focal points for their team. Any team that would look to acquire Hill (and his pricey $19 million tab for next season) would want him paired with a wing or a big man who the offense can run through.
Still, any ball-handler or point guard who’s been in the NBA long enough knows how to score out of the pick-and-roll.
Hill, for all his efficiencies and the solid defense he provides, is fairly one-dimensional with his ball screen offense based on the side of the floor he is on. When he’s on the left side (meaning he comes off the screen with his right hand attacking towards the middle of the floor), he’s in the top scoring bracket in the NBA with an efficient 1.263 points per possession. Flip him to the right side, where he comes off with his left hand, and his value plummets: 0.889 points per possession on 9-of-21 shooting.
The floor general is getting good looks in most of these situations, especially out of pull-ups. For a veteran player who’s been in the league and on good teams as long as he has, Hill is still very right-hand dominant with his finishes near the basket. When he comes off screens on the left side, he has a tendency to flick shots up with his inside hand. He also has a habit of stranding himself between what’s known as an extended layup (a finish taken just a little farther from the basket) and a mid-range pull-up, which forces Hill to fire up some off-balance, wrong-hand attempts:
Hill isn’t known as a space-creator, lacking quick moves off the bounce or insane bursts of speed that get him into the lane. He’s good in tight spaces, crafty with his hesitations and fairly smooth in the mid-range. Don’t expect him to pull out a great deal of finishes at the rim, though; his 46.2 percent shooting from two this season with the Kings is the lowest since his rookie season.
Given the size of his contract, it’s hard to know what teams might be interested in Hill, especially if acquiring him comes at the cost of a first-round pick. One such team, which I can’t get out of my head as a logical destination, could be the Philadelphia 76ers. If the Sixers value a postseason push and allocate most of their cap space to retaining J.J. Redick next summer, they might be best-served using the expiring Amir Johnson to help them acquire a player now. Hill, for the cost of a semi-protected first-rounder, Johnson and Jerryd Bayless might do the trick.
Philly gets a shooter to play off Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons while adding insurance for Markelle Fultz. Sacramento gets out of an exorbitant contract and eats Bayless in order to get a first-rounder.
It may not come true, but it’s one of those wacky trade scenarios I can’t get out of my head as a win for each team involved. Sixers fans may want to try their hand in free agency this summer, but Hill might be the best and safest asset for them to grab.
6. Loving Luke Babbitt
Another one of those fringe guys who I absolutely love, Babbitt is the definition of a role player. He does one thing extraordinarily well—shoot the ball from three—while being gifted with size and long arms. There’s also something borderline hypnotic about watching left-handed dudes drain catch-and-shoot treys. They’re always so smooth, even when they’re as grounded as Babbitt is in his release.
There’s always a place in today’s NBA for an efficient shooter from deep. A snapshot of his Synergy statistics show his great effectiveness, even if it’s in a relatively small sample size:
Catch-and-shoot players help teams because they tend to have relatively low turnover rates, a byproduct of not needing to put the ball on the floor to have offensive value. But Babbitt is incredibly safe with the rock, boasting an extremely low turnover rate. After setting a ball screen and getting a touch, whether as a roller or popping to the perimeter, Babbitt is six times more likely to get fouled than he is to turn the ball over. Oh yeah, and as the roll man, he scores almost 70 percent of the time.
The vast majority of the forward’s value comes off the ball when spacing the floor to the three-point line. He’s great at raising into passing windows when the defense rotates to the ball handler, and he’s even got an efficient one-dribble pull-up when defenders fly at him and chase him off the line:
Babbitt is a bargain for his production on a veteran’s minimum contract right now. He was a great signing by the Atlanta Hawks this summer, and now will be a piece that helps them squeeze more value out of their deadline moves. He’ll likely be a small piece in a bigger trade rather than the ideal target of another suitor, but he’s going to have an impact for some team after the deadline.
All stats are current as of Jan. 15, 2018 and unless otherwise noted are courtesy of NBA.com, Synergy Sports Tech or Basketball-Reference.