Can Kristaps Porzingis Lead the NBA in Scoring?

Before 2015, they were considered creatures of fantasy. Now, you can’t stray too far in the NBA without bumping into a unicorn.

Last year, the conversation around the NBA’s new phenomenon crystalized. You had Joel Embiid’s transcendent performance—excellence matched only by its brevity. A certain Serbian jester manipulated and contorted the frontiers of Denver’s offense in ways that would have had the post-war Allied Powers blushing. And a former street vendor from Greece ran away with the Most Improved Player award in a manner only comparable to a stampede of the mythical beasts themselves: beautiful, unforeseeable and ultimately terrifying.

Overshadowed by all this—and mired in good old New York Knicks front office dysfunction—was the man who caused Kevin Durant to proclaim the phenomenon himself: the original basketball unicorn, Kristaps Porzingis.

Porzingis hasn’t stepped out of that shadow this year, so much as he has shone so brightly as to render the concept of darkness moot. The Latvian forward is lighting up the league, determined to drag the Knicks toward respectability despite the very real limitations of his teammates. KP isn’t going to win the MVP any time soon, but he’s taken a leap that has him in the conversation about the NBA’s best player. At 22, he is the youngest player ever to score 30 or more points in six of his first eight games to begin a season and has tallied more points in his first 10 games than any Knick before him . He is fourth on the buckets leaderboard at 27.3 points per game, narrowly behind LeBron James (28.5), Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.5) and James Harden (31.4).

So could the original basketball unicorn capture the scoring title?

Such a question would have seemed folly only six weeks ago. But after a shining performance in EuroBasket that left Knicks fans salivating, KP has only turned up the intensity now that he’s playing state-side once more.

With the departure of Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose, Porzingis is asserting himself as the Alpha and Omega of the Knicks offense. His usage rate has increased from around 24 percent in both of his first two years to 34.8 percent—second only to the Bearded One, James Harden.

The mind-boggling thing is that he’s done all this while increasing his efficiency.  His effective field-goal percentage is 52.9 percent and true shooting percentage 57.7 percent, both of which are career highs. Doing this almost defies belief, as usage rate and efficiency are often negatively correlated. But players routinely manage this feat by tilting their scoring profile toward more efficient shots, for instance by decreasing  mid-range attempts in favor of increasing three-point attempts.

However, that simply isn’t the case here, since none of the increased usage is coming on the perimeter, ostensibly the area that makes the 7’3″ Porzingis unique. He took 3.4 and 4.8 threes per game in his first two seasons. This year that number is up to 5.1, but thanks to his significantly increased offensive load, he is getting a smaller share of his overall offense from downtown—22.6 percent, compared to a high of 28.1 percent in 2016-17.

As for at the rim? Porzingis is only making 55.7 percent of his shots around the basket, about 2 percent below league average. Last season, he was actually slightly better from that range. Given his length, preternatural touch and how closely opponents have to guard him on the perimeter, this will improve.

In essence, he’s increased his efficiency by taking more difficult shots and making even more of them than ever before. He began by making 29 of his first 55 mid-range jump shots, good enough for 52.7 percent. This proved unsustainable, and that number has fallen significantly to 40 percent in recent weeks.

Largely, his knack for drawing whistles is buoying his overall efficiency, with his career-best free-throw attempt rate of 35.4 percent rising 10 percentage points above his 2016-17 efforts. He’s not getting these calls by driving like a DeMar DeRozan might; rather, he is dominating smaller wings and drawing fouls by backing them down and shooting over them—something he struggled to do in the past.

Even though his shooting from the mid-range has fallen, his post game has remained fairly efficient, and, per Synergy, he still gets more than 1.009 points per possession—a solid result for a half-court possession. Opponents struggle to stop him without fouling:

How does all this compare to his competition? Kristaps has faced three consistent challengers since the season kicked off: Antetokounmpo, James and current MVP frontrunner Harden.

Porzingis narrowly trails all three at the moment, but he’s also averaging significantly fewer minutes than the other frontrunners, clocking in around 32 minutes per game. On a per-36-minute basis, Kristaps is only behind—you guessed it!—Harden.

While the NBA still determines the scoring champion on a strict points-per-game basis, Kristaps and Giannis do something as primary scorers that nobody else competing for the scoring title this year does: They produce points with minuscule turnover rates. KP is responsible for only 8.7 turnovers per 100 possessions, the lowest figure among similar high-volume scorers.

As Kyle Wagner noted for FiveThirtyEight, this means KP is getting more field-goal attempts per 100 possessions than any other player in the NBA.

Despite this, Porzingis trails in the official contest—yet something is favoring him. Two of his competitors began the season with their secondary scoring partners sidelined: Isaiah Thomas in LeBron’s case, and Chris Paul for Harden. While their returns might open up more beneficial scoring opportunities for the Knick power forward’s competition, they will also result in reduced usage, which favors the big man’s chances of retaking the overall points-per-game lead.

Make note, however, that Kristaps has started off hot in the past, only to tail off after a few months—a trend he cannot let continue if he wants to lead the NBA in scoring. This was largely due to weight loss, which the New York star has been upfront about as an issue for him over the course of the 82-game grind. He’s even suffered from anemia in the past and travels on team road trips with iron pills.

But as with seemingly every part of KP’s craft, he’s noted his weakness and has made significant steps to address it. As he told Marc Berman of the New York Post, “It’s going to be key for me this season—not overtraining. Not coming in super early in the morning after a game to get a workout in. That doesn’t help my weight either. I keep losing weight. Those things add up and by the end of the season, I’m drained.‘’

The new regimen appears to be working. And if it bears out, then Porzingis could be looking at quite a collection of hardware for the 2017-18 season: All-Star, Most Improved Played, his first playoff berth.

And, yes, a scoring title.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on November 26.