Buckets with Brock: Behind Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic can Bounce Back

by Michael Brock in Uncategorized

On Dec. 3, Nikola Vucevic put on a show at Madison Square Garden, tallying 34 points (on 13-of-19 shooting), 12 rebounds, three assists and two blocks as the Orlando Magic beat the New York Knicks 105-100. He had his full repertoire going that night—from flip shots to put-backs, mid-range jumpers and defensive swats, Vucevic could do no wrong.

A few nights earlier, the 7-footer put together a similarly complete game with 15 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, as Orlando outlasted the Oklahoma City Thunder 121-108. Aaron Gordon pitched in 40 points and 15 rebounds, and the team shot 59.2 percent from the field to come out on top. And now, following a victory over the Atlanta Hawks, Orland has won three of its last five—including that quality, um, upset of the Thunder.

So all is good with the Magic, right?

Not so much.

Prior to that win in OKC, they lost night straight games, including a 40-point shellacking at the hands of the Utah Jazz on Nov. 18. The Magic have a record of 11-15, are 11th in the Eastern Conference and sit three games off the No. 8 seed. In other words: They’re pretty much who we thought they were prior to the season.

Still, the Magic opened the season 8-4, a streak that included 20-point victories over the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs. So what gives? Can they right the ship? Should they want to right the ship?

The answer to every question, and to any question, starts with the man in the middle: Nikola Vucevic.

Who is Vucevic?

Vucevic was selected by the Philadelphia 76ers with the 16th overall pick in the 2011 draft following three seasons at the University of Southern California. After a quiet rookie campaign in The City of Brotherly Love, the center was traded to the Magic in a four-team deal that involved Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Andre Iguodala, among others.

Over the next four seasons, Vucevic started essentially every game he played in, peaking at 19.3 points and 10.9 rebounds per game during the 2014-15 crusade. Last year, the Magic still had Aaron Gordon playing small forward and experimented with a frontcourt of Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo for a handful of games, with the latter starting 27 in total. They went back to Ibaka-Vucevic for 15 games, then, at the trade deadline, they traded Ibaka to the Toronto Raptors for Terrence Ross. The primary starting lineup became Elfrid Payton-Ross-Evan Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic for the rest of the year.

Vucevic’s numbers dropped in that reduced role, but they still placed him among supreme company. Entering this season, only four players had averaged 17 points and 10 rebounds through the past three campaigns: Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Love and Vucevic.

Orlando stuck with that same lineup to begin this season, as a trio of Magicians—and the team as a whole—started red-hot.

Fournier, now permanently slotted at small forward, kicked off the year notching 20.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.4 steals on 50.0/42.9/88.9 shooting splits in the first 12 games. Gordon, in his rightful spot at power forward, opened up over that same stretch tickling the twine with the best of them, tallying 19.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks on 56.8/59.5/70.7 shooting splits. These shooting slashes represented considerable upticks for the pair, but the entire team was sizzling from the field, knocking down 41.0 percent of its triples and notching a true shooting percentage (TS%) of 57.9 percent.

Vucevic, meanwhile, put up 18.5 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals on 51.7/42.6/81.0 clips in the same span.

The seven-year veteran is once again showcasing his gift for consistent substance. He doesn’t do anything flashy, but he champions exceptional footwork and capitalizes on dump-off passes, rolls and cuts to the basket. He has developed a nice flip shot with either hand and often slithers into open space for mid-range jumpers and floaters.

But this season, Vucevic has expanded his game even further by journeying beyond the three-point line. He’s launching 4.2 treys per game after never attempting more than 1.0 in his first seasons. His three-point percentage is down to 33.9 percent after that red-hot start, but he remains a viable option from distance.

Over his last 14 games—through which Orlando has gone 3-11—Vucevic has generally come back to Earth, averaging a stellar-but-not-disarming 15.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.1 blocks while slashing 46.4/25.5/81.8. Still, even after accounting for this reality check, he has parlayed his early-season success into 16.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.4 made threes overall.

The only others to match those averages? DeMarcus Cousins, Russell Westbrook and Marc Gasol—so, a pair of do-it-all big guys and the 6’3″ battering ram that is Westbrook. (For transparency’s sake: Blake Griffin and LeBron James are posting similar numbers but miss the cut with 7.9 rebounds apiece).

When we delve deeper into the statistics, it becomes clear that Vucevic is the Magic’s most impactful player. Aside from Marreese Speights, who has registered a plus/minus of 0.3 in 11.4 minutes per game, Vucevic (plus-2.0) is the only raw positive player on the roster.

In fact, when Vucevic is off the court, the Magic are outscored by 5.3 points.

According to NBA Math’s FATS calculator, which is an era-adjusted historical calculation based on Dean Oliver’s Four Factors and can be used for all sorts of on/off splits, the Magic play like a team with an expected record of 50.5-31.5 with Vucevic on the court. While he’s on the pine? They’re playing like a 31.1-50.9 team, with the closest comparison coming from the 17-win 1999-00 Bulls.

The others striving to be considered Orlando’s top contributors—Gordon and Fournier—are close, but they don’t have their hands in as much of the team’s success as Vucevic does.

Over the last stretch of games, the pair has shot considerably worse than their early-season flame-throwing. However, that’s not why they fall short in terms of importance. Vucevic’s versatility pushes him ahead. Yes, Gordon and Fournier are both superior in offensive value, but they can’t match his impact on defense or as a complete player.

Per NBA Math’s TPA model, Gordon and Vucevic lead the team considerably in TPA, with the latter serving as the team’s only major positive on both ends:

Vucevic’s solid numbers stem from his success in myriad facets of the game.

As mentioned previously, many of the big man’s opportunities come off rolls, cuts and dump-off passes. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time, and he makes the most of proper spacing and positioning to score easy buckets.

Aside from the dirty work, Vucevic has a mid-range jumper which he has expanded to become an effective three-pointer this season.

He has also improved his playmaking in recent seasons, averaging 2.9 assists per game over the past two-plus campaigns, compared to just 1.6 over his first four.

Vucevic often works out of the mid-post, where he can maneuver for his signature flip shot or sling it to open shooters and cutters. But in order for the Magic to right the ship, he will need to continue and improve on his complete play thus far.

Where do They Go from Here?

The Magic are currently on the outside of the playoff hunt, but not for the reason we expected.

Roughly 25 games in, the Eastern Conference is better than expected, with 10 teams—including the Magic—between nine and 14 wins. The usual suspects in the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics are atop the conference, but the Detroit Pistons are in fourth place, and the Indiana Pacers are currently above .500. The only two stinkers in the East are the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls, with everyone else in playoff contention.

Ultimately, outside of injuries or drastic changes,  the top seven slots are pretty much spoken for with the Cavs, Celtics, Toronto Raptors, Pistons, Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks and Washington Wizards. The Pacers, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets, Magic and Brooklyn Nets will battle for the No. 8 seed.

But if the team is to have any chance of making the final eight in the East, Vucevic—along with Gordon and Fournier—needs to return to his early-season play. The Magic’s success is largely dictated by their center, who anchors the team on both ends.

Over the squad’s first 12 games, it had the eighth-best defensive rating. That ranking has plummeted to No. 29 in the land, and righting the point-preventing ship, which would do wonders to improve the team’s overall play, all starts with Vucevic.

Of course, positive results also often stem from simply knocking down shots. And when the percentage from downtown levels out, so too will Orlando’s record.

Basketball-Reference.com currently has the Magic with an 11.9 percent chance at making the playoffs. They also give the franchise a 1.9 percent to win the lottery. So even if Orlando sneaks into the playoffs, there’s no way around it: It’s in the dreaded middle zone. It isn’t good enough to do much more than get swept in the first round, but isn’t bad enough to really contend for a top lottery pick.

And even if the Magic got a top pick, the team’s recent woes picking in the lottery are scary enough to compel them into at least trying to win some games. Orlando has missed the playoffs the last five years, with the last appearance coming in 2011-12.

Right now, they aren’t championship contenders. But the Magic still have the motivation to push higher in the standings, and, in large part because of Vucevic, a legitimate chance to stave off a hapless tank.

Follow Michael on Twitter @mbrock03.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics via NBA Math, Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and accurate heading into games on December 7.