Buckets with Brock: Can the Toronto Raptors Reverse their Playoff Trend?
The Toronto Raptors know how to win in the regular season.
They’ve proved as much, securing home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference each of the last four years. Over that span, they have had one of most potent attacks in the league. In fact, since Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan took the reins in 2013-14, the team has finished no lower than ninth in offensive efficiency, capping out at 109.8 points per 100 possessions a season ago.
The 2017-18 iteration has been even better thus far, notching an offensive rating of 111.2 and a record of 22-8, placing it in the East’s No. 2 seed (currently 0.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers).
But when the lights get bright and palms get sweaty in the postseason, the offense has habitually crumbled (last season, the Raptors ranked 14th out of 16 playoff teams with an offensive rating of 101.3). As the game slows down and defense is ratcheted up, the hero ball of the regular schedule ceases to succeed.
Yet something feels different this time around. And it starts with the way they’re winning.
Modern Offense
In the past, Toronto has relied heavily on its two stars to carry the team to the promised land. Lowry and DeRozan would initiate most of the action, often without any sort of movement or cuts outside of a high pick-and-roll.
As such, the team frequently ran action in isolation or for the PnR ball-handler—plays known to be less efficient and more predictable. But Dwane Casey and the Raptors have cut down on both play-types, especially isos. In 2016-17, 8.5 percent of Toronto’s possessions ended in isolation (sixth most), compared to just 5.9 percent this season (25th). Also, the team ran 24.2 percent of its plays in pick-and-roll a season ago (first)—a rate that has dipped to 20.4 percent in 2017-18 (seventh).
In place of these unfavorable possessions, the Raptors are running a more modern offense, predicated on spotting up, cutting and finding the post player in the pick-and-roll.
Last year, the team hit the PnR roller on 5.8 percent of its action (26th); this season, it’s 7.5 percent (seventh). The rate on spot ups was 19.5 percent in 2016-17 (20th), compared to 22.0 percent now (eighth). Finally, Toronto had the least amount of cuts a season ago, a percentage it’sincreased to rank 18th in the NBA.
The system flip has resulted in a more contemporary shot chart, based on layups and shots from beyond the arc. So it should come as no surprise that the Raptors are leading the league in drives to the cup, as well as assists on such plays.
In fact, 69.7 percent of the team’s attempts are either at the rim or from three, compared to 59.1 percent last year, per Cleaning the Glass. The Raptors are eliminating those pesky mid-range attempts, and even though they’re knocking down threes at just a 35.5 percent clip, the fact they’re even launching them is making a difference.
Changing of the Guards
Diving deeper, we can see that Lowry and DeRozan have changed their games individually, too. Both are isolating less, as there is clearly an emphasis to get everyone involved in the action. A bulk of the possessions still end in pick-and-rolls, but not before some sort of misdirection or passing sequence ensures other players touch the ball.
As a result, Lowry has had a steeper adjustment than his counterpart. His scoring output is at 15.8 points per game (down from 22.4), and there’s no doubt he’s taken more of a backseat to the Raps Show. His frequency in the pick-and-roll has dipped, as well, which he has essentially replaced with more spot ups.
And that’s a smart move. Not only will the 31-year-old benefit from a less strenuous regular season, but he is absolutely deadly from distance. Over the past three campaigns, his 59.8 true shooting percentage ranks fourth among volume gunners (at least 6.0 three-point attempts per game).
Even with the slight adaptation, Lowry is enjoying the best shooting year of his career while still dishing out a lofty 7.2 assists. He is currently slotted at No. 9 in NBA Math’s total points added (TPA) metric, while coming in at No. 7 in offensive value added. Perhaps most impressive, though, is his affinity for rebounding.
The 6’0″ point guard is snatching an unthinkable 6.3 boards per game (after never grabbing more than 4.8), which would put him in some pretty exclusive company. In the history of the NBA, just one player 6’0″ or shorter has registered at least 6.0 boards for a single season. (Guy Rodgers did it in ’58-59 and ’60-61).
Lowry’s backcourt mate, on the other hand, has modified his game in a different way. Yes, DeRozan is still a world-class bucket-getter (scoring 24.0 points while shooting 48.9 percent), but he is now distributing at a higher rate, dishing out a career-best 5.1 assists per game.
He is also attempting more threes—even if he’s knocking in just 27.8 percent, at least he’s taking them. DeRozan still makes his money slashing to the bucket and pulling up in the mid-range, but he has cut the long twos almost entirely out of his game and is passing more out of the situation.
The Other Guys
Outside of their commanding duo, the Raptors have gotten ample production from a number of players. Looking at the other starters, Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas are effective offensively due to a combination of rolling and diving to the rim, while Ibaka remains one of the better spot-up big men the game has to offer.
Defensively, however, they are an undeniably clunky fit. Ibaka can’t switch pick-and-rolls, and Valanciunas is a putrid rim-protector for a 7-footer. But they make it work, in large part due to rookie forward OG Anunoby, who entered the starting lineup in mid-November when Norman Powell briefly went down with a hip injury.
The former has yet to surrender the starting position, and for good reason. In the 17 games since the change was made, the lineup of Lowry-DeRozan-Anunoby-Ibaka-Valanciunas is hitting on all cylinders, outscoring opponents by a scorching 22.5 points per 100 possessions. It’s been dominant on both ends, and Anunoby is an immense reason why.
At 6’8″ with a 7’2″ wingspan, Anunoby has the frame and quickness to defend the toughest opposing wing on a nightly basis. And on offense, he simply plays his role and fills in the gaps, as 91.5 percent of his overall attempts come at the rim or beyond the arc. The aspect that really makes him a perfect fit, though, is his ability to knock down open jumpers.
Over half his shots are in the form of catch-and-shoot threes, which he is knocking down at a clip of 47.4 percent. In the team’s Dec. 20 victory over the Charlotte Hornets, Anunoby had a career-high 20 points, connecting on 6-of-7 from deep.
Another reason for the Raptors’ early success? The play of the bench.
Though it’s taken a bit of a step back from absolutely eviscerating teams, it’s still averaging 38.4 points a night—an uptick of nearly seven points from last year. Casey is playing 11 guys at least 17 minutes per game, and the share-it-around offense is clearly working, especially from distance.
The team is relying on Valanciunas less than in previous seasons, with Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam filling in. Point guard Fred VanVleet does a little bit of everything, including keeping the drive-and-kick mentality of the starters intact. On the wings, C.J. Miles has shot well, while Delon Wright and Norman Powell are defense-first guys who are starting to gel as they mature.
And that’s the thing—along with Anunoby, many of these guys are learning on the fly. VanVleet, Siakam and Poeltl are in their second seasons, with Powell and Wright in their third.
Toronto had a choice this summer: bring back the same crew for a couple more cracks at it, or blow it up and build for the future. Somehow, it’s been able to do both. The franchise simultaneously has a stock of young guys to develop and veterans who have been to the postseason multiple times together.
So . . . Now What?
For years, the Raptors were stuck in the Mesozoic Era—running an effective but inefficient offense that routinely crumbled in the playoffs. A few tweaks this season have made a world of difference, and the team is playing like one of the best in the league.
Now, they need to prove they can execute when it counts.
Follow Michael on Twitter @mbrock03.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics via NBA Math, Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and accurate heading into games on December 21.