Breaking Down the New York Knicks’ Point-Guard Carousel
Never a team to shy away from controversy, the New York Knicks find themselves back in the spotlight to start the 2017-18 season.
Despite a complete roster overhaul this offseason, they kicked things off with a disastrous 0-3 start, which was met with rumors head coach Jeff Hornaceck may be coaching for his job. The team has since bounced back and currently finds itself sitting at a more respectable 3-4 record, largely due to the strong play of Kristaps Porzingis. Much has been made of the breakout of the 7’3″ Latvian and his ascendance to stardom. However, it’s the Knicks’ point-guard rotation that remains the most interesting storyline, as New York has an apparent myriad of options with no clear long-term answer.
The Knickerbockers reconstructed the position this offseason, but they didn’t do much to leave fans confident. Out went Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings, who were replaced with Ramon Sessions, Jarrett Jack and the 2017 No. 8 overall pick, Frank Ntilikina. In theory, the team has a good blend of youth and experience at the position, but the translation to on-court production hasn’t been seamless thus far.
Let’s take a closer look at the Knicks’ diverse group of guards and how they fit with the team moving forward.
Frank Nkilitina (Age 19 – Rookie)
The French rookie, aka Frankie Smokes, is still largely an unknown quantity for the Knicks.
That didn’t stop New York from drafting him with the eighth pick in the 2017 draft, largely due to his defensive potential. He has incredible size for a guard, standing at 6’6 “with a 7’0” wingspan, and he projects to be a nightmare for opposing team’s offenses.
As Kevin Arnovitz said on a recent taping of the Lowe Post podcast in reference to the combination of Patrick Beverley and DeAndre Jordan, “I’ve always said, if you have a 1 who can defend and a 5 who can defend…you’re not going to be much worse than league average.” This is notable as Porzingis has already cemented himself as one of the league’s top rim-protectors—he held opponents to just 44.2 percent shooting around the rim and averaged 2.0 blocks per game in 2016-17. If the theory holds true, the Knicks may reach league-average status sooner rather than later.
Just watch this entire defensive sequence below. In one possession, Ntilikina is able to get over a screen, close out to prevent a three and force a pass late in the shot clock for long two-point attempt. Again, all in one sequence.
Though he appears to over-hedge on Quincy Acy, he is able to quickly make up for the mistake with his length. And even when he gets turned around, he quickly resets himself and forces another pass.
The French Prince has quite a bit of room for improvement on the offensive end, and he struggles with ball-handling at times (especially against press-defense, resulting in 2.4 turnovers per game). The Knicks faithful should still have plenty of reason for optimism, though, as he’s averaging 8.6 points, 7.4 assists and 4.1 steals per 36 minutes. And as an added bonus, they won’t be subjected to this level of effort on defense anymore:
Ron Baker (Age 24 – Second Season)
Recipient of perhaps the most head-scratching contract this offseason, Baker had a largely forgettable first NBA season.
The only guard of the bunch who was a part of the 2016-17 roster, he did enough to earn a generous two-year deal (with a player option in the second) from the front office. Perhaps the most “jack of all trades, master of none” player in the NBA, Baker has proved himself a competent defender, as evidenced in the below video (courtesy of The Knicks Wall). He has quick hands on the stopping end, allowing him to poke the ball away from ball handlers (0:51) and deny entry passes (1:03) to opponents in the low-post:
Baker started 13 games for the Knicks last season, including their last nine.
While the season was essentially over at that point, he still had some productive outings as the lead point guard and showed improvement towards the end of the campaign. After the team’s first six games, Baker figures to be the odd man out going forward, but he can provide New York some competent guard play in spot minutes off the bench.
Ramon Sessions (Age 30 – 11th season)
Sessions may have been the logical pick to lead the group on opening night, but the Knicks had a minus-29.8 net rating through their first three games with him on the floor.
He was once an impactful guard by NBA standards, posting five seasons of positive offensive points added (OPA) in his first seven. However, he has since posted negative figures for the past three seasons, including minus-38.81 OPA in 2016-17. That said, it still made sense for the Knicks to bring him in for some veteran experience at the position.
Out of the 51 guards who averaged fewer than 20 minutes per game last season, Sessions had the seventh-highest assist percentage at 24.0 percent. The knock on him is that he isn’t a reliable threat to score out of the pick-and-roll, only averaging 0.82 points per possession on 163 such plays last season, qualifying him for the 59th percentile in the NBA (lower than former teammates Marco Belinelli and Jeremy Lamb). This is noteworthy, as defenders will sag off him and concentrate on covering the roll man, forcing Sessions into taking shots he does not convert at a high rate.
Sessions had a chance to solidify himself as the primary distributor for the Knicks, who routinely experienced several of their top shooters frozen out in favor of contested Rose layups. Despite only averaging 16.2 minutes last year, he drove to the hoop 4.3 times and kicked the ball out on 29.6 percent of those drives (8.3 assist percentage). For comparison’s sake, Rose had 10.0 drives per game, but he only passed the ball out on 24.1 percent of his drives (5.9 assist percentage).
His track record could help Sessions find his way back into the rotation. But after posting several straight DNPs, it won’t be anytime soon.
Jarrett Jack (Age 33 – 13th season)
It’s been a while since Jack has seen extensive NBA action. He played 32 games with the Brooklyn Nets in the 2015-16 season before tearing his ACL and was waived at the end of the season. He resurfaced with a 10-day contract for the injury-plagued New Orleans Pelicans in February 2017, but he wasn’t re-signed after appearing in two games with the team.
In 2014-15, Jack’s last full season as a player, the Brooklyn Nets were 7.8 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor—the ninth lowest among the 80 guards that averaged 25 minutes per game that season. It looked as though Jack’s NBA career may have been over, but New York decided to give him one last shot.
Signed by new general manager Steve Perry less than one month before the season began, Jack has had a renaissance of sorts for the orange and blue. On October 27, Hornaceck plugged him into the starting lineup, and the Knicks took off.
Since that date, the team has had a positive 2.2 net rating, including three straight wins over impressive competition. Prior to the 27th, the Knicks had a league-worst minus-15.5 net rating, only managing to score 93.8 points per 100 possessions while losing all three games. During the three game win-streak, Jack has posted an assist percentage of 32.4, way up from his career average of 25.8 percent.
However, a regression to the mean is likely in the near future, and his lack of ability to stretch the floor (82 percent of his shot are from mid-range, the highest such mark in the league) is going to hurt the offense. The rotation already features a non-spacer playing heavy minutes in Enes Kanter, so having two players who struggle from distance will hinder offensive flow and offer Porzingis less space to operate.
But as of now, Jack has been a mini-revelation for the Knicks, earning himself the primary ball-handling duties looking forward.
The veteran won’t be able to sustain his play for the full season, and his slash line of 32.4/25.0/50.0 is problematic. But if he (and/or Sessions) can perform at the level of a low-end starter while allowing Frankie Smokes some more time to adjust to the NBA’s style of play, the Knicks might be in better shape than previously thought.
Ntilikina isn’t ready to assume the responsibility yet. And that’s fine, since the Knicks are trying to win games and ascend up the Eastern Conference standings. They’re playing their best current players for a reason. If New York isn’t in playoff contention by midseason, then they’ll have nothing to lose by handing the reigns to the 19-year-old.
Strong point-guard play is ancillary to the team’s success, and the Knicks’ coaching staff seems reluctant to give the young players (besides Porzingis) heavy minutes. The ideal scenario is that Ntilikina develops into their guy long-term, but Hornaceck’s questionable job status and the glut of veterans on the roster may slow that process. Sitting at 3-4 seven games into the season, the results have been better than expected. Whatever path the Knickerbockers choose to follow, it appears as though they finally have a group of guys in whom they can feel (relatively) confident. Can they sustain a full season of .500 ball? This Knicks fan is skeptical, but perhaps it’s time for this skeptic to become a believer.
Note: This opinion is subject to change.
Follow Tim on Twitter @StubbHub.
Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on November 1.