Brandon Ingram is Putting the NBA on Watch for Los Angeles Lakers
Nothing about Brandon Ingram’s career has been equitable for him.
He came into the league with unbelievably high expectations, then finished his rookie season dead last in the entire league in NBA Math’s TPA metric. Rookies tend to be bad, so this isn’t shocking by any means, but he got beat by every other first-year player drafted behind him and had an astronomically low 47.4 true shooting percentage—signs that he was perhaps overhyped coming into the draft.
But let me tell you something: He’s not overhyped. He’s good, and improving fast.
Okay, maybe if you compare him to Kevin Durant, you might be overhyping him. Equating Ingram with a perennial MVP candidate and one of the top 25 players of all time is borderline spiteful, as that is an apex only all-time greats can achieve. The understandable part of the comparison is that the two share similar play styles—both are 6’10” skinny dudes with crazy wingspans and a penchant for knocking down smooth jumpers over everyone.
If you’re not convinced by my descriptions, watch these identical eerily similar clips of left-elbow jumpers from the pair. First up, Ingram:
Now, Durant:
Dip the ball low to draw their defender into the screen, rip through to get around the pick, small hesitation at the elbow so their man drops just a tiny bit and then bang. A nailed jumper for both.
But again, don’t assume Ingram is going to be as good as Durant. Indistinguishable body types and similar jumpers are basically where the comparison ends. The newcomer is his own player with his own unique skills, and he is starting to figure things out. Last years second-overall pick is showing exactly why he was so highly touted coming out of Duke University.
Much of that putrid true shooting percentage Ingram posted in his first go around the league was due to equally putrid 29.4 percent shooting from three-point range. In a small sample, Ingram is at 38.9 percent during his sophomore campaign; he’ s averaging the same number of makes per game on 0.6 fewer attempts. He is finding ways to get more open looks with his deep attempts, and it is helping his efficiency significantly. As the inbounder here, he urgently cuts to the rim immediately after inbounding the ball, only to stop dead in his tracks and retreat behind the three-point line. Thabo Sefolosha loses him for a split second, and he cans the open shot:
That sort of imaginative cutting is something he lacked in his prior season.
Watch this segment from his rookie season. Marvin Williams is guarding him and completely leaves him in the strong-side corner, turning his body away from Ingram. Instead of cutting to the open space on the wing, the youngster just hangs out in the corner and airballs a contested attempt:
Those sorts of plays are a thing of the past now. His shot selection and ability to get himself open show when looking at his closest defender shooting frequency. Last season, 4.4 percent of his shots came while a defender was within two feet of him, and 17.1 percent with a man between two and four feet away. This year, those figures have dropped to 1.6 and 16.3 percent, respectively. He’s finding ways to get open on his own and enjoying the fruits of his labor.
Ingram is also starting to understand the advantages his body gives him. His incredible length allows him to finish over taller defenders at the rim and on jumpers. But why take jumpers when you can use that same length to blow by your matchup and get to the basket?
Nearly 40 percent of Ingram’s attempts have come at the rim so far this season, as opposed to just 28 percent during his rookie season. He is also shooting better around the tin now—64 percent this year, compared to just 60.7 during his entry campaign. Taking and making more is obviously a great combination, but the manner in which he is doing so—using his length to his benefit— is most encouraging.
Take this sequence, for example. He gets to the rim and uses his long arms to hold the ball just out of reach of the oncoming Alex Len and Marquese Chriss. The extension of his arms grants him suitable space to finish the finger roll:
Going away from his body is just one way that Ingram has been able to leverage his length as he blossoms into a skillful player.
Holding the ball away from you works well when you have a defender beat, but when Ingram goes right into the teeth of the big man, he has been able to keep the ball up high and use touch to finish. Serge Ibaka plays the stooge here, as Ingram keeps the rock just out of his reach and hangs in the air precisely long enough to get the layup to fall:
If Ibaka isn’t a strong enough defender for you to be convinced this was a skilled move, fine. Here is the same finish over All-Defense member Anthony Davis:
That’s big-boy stuff right there. As Ingram transitions into an inside-outside baller, those types of finishes will become second nature to him. Already finding a modicum of touch is quite promising going forward for the youngster.
That length also benefits Ingram on the less glamorous end of the floor. To begin, let’s first enjoy this ruthless rejection of DeMarre Carroll on the break:
Ingram has increased his block rate ever so slightly in 2017-18. But more importantly, his defensive rating is a full 12 points lower than last year’s, dropping all the way down to 103. He ranks positively in NBA Math’s defensive points saved metric for the first time (5.63). For reference, he finished last season with a minus-37.41 DPS.
His improvements on that end of the floor add more ammo to the rumor that he could be an excellent two-way player someday.
Take this clip as another example. Guarding Danilo Gallinari, he keeps his hands locked in. Then, he slides his feet to stay in front and keeps his arms straight up, which forces Gallo to pass:
Like I talked about in my article about Dwight Howard’s re-emergence, these are the plays that are so hard to truly grasp. Stats literally measure what happens on the basketball court (every stat tells a story!), but Ingram’s impact here stems from his defense and standing reach causing something not to happen—in this case, a Gallinari jumper. Regardless of whether it’s recorded on the stat sheet, this is an effective play and a crystal-clear sign of growth.
Most of the time, he actually does cause good stuff to happen. In this next clip, he fights through not one, but two Marcin Gortat screens (watch a breakdown of how effective Gortat’s screens typically are here) and gets his hand in the face of Kelly Oubre Jr. to make his jumper errant:
His excellent defense on this play forced the miss, and that’s happening quite frequently for Ingram this season. He is second on the Lakers in defensive field-goal percentage, allowing just 41.2 percent shooting. Last season, he allowed his man to shoot 47.1 percent.
Still, Ingram does possess some glaring flaws. For starters, he is a Daryl Morey nightmare;19 percent of his attempts from the field in 2017-18 have been long twos—statistically, the least efficient shot. Attempts like this, while open, are not the looks you want to be taking:
Fortunately for the Lakers and Ingram fans, possessing this problem is much better than having a talent deficit.
On that above clip in particular (and just in general), the small forward could have just keep his feet behind the line when he came around the screen and buried the would-be triple. That would naturally increase his efficiency, as well as space the floor, since defenders would have to come out and guard him on switches.
Ingram also turns the ball over on 14 percent of his touches—a 1.2 percent increase over his rookie season. Too often, he leaps in the air with no plan, which leads to bad passes that either get stolen or go out of bounds. That sequence, like when Durant gets the steal here and sparks an easy fast-break layup for the Golden State Warriors, is a classic sign of a youngster trying to do too much:
And on this next turnover, his lack of forethought is more detrimental than the previous unnecessary leap. When he gets cut off in the lane, he throws a careless pass to the strong side that results in a change in possession:
It’s such a little mistake, but doing the little things right matters—the next step for Ingram in his quest to carve out a reputation as a great player.
Finally, his off-ball defense leaves a tiny amount to be desired. Young players are always a step behind on rotations and weak-side help, so this isn’t necessarily unexpected for Ingram. But he stills struggles in this area and could certainly improve.
Here, the Utah Jazz run a beautiful pick-and-roll with Rudy Gobert as the man crashing to the hoop. Ingram needs to slide over from the weak side and stop the roll, but he’s tardy in his rotation and is forced to foul:
Better late than never, I suppose?
Ingram’s rotation was correct. He just needs to make it sooner, and the fact he knows he needs to make it at all should be encouraging.
So here we are, 10 games into Season 2 of the Brandon Ingram experience. After an underwhelming rookie campaign, the Duke product is finally showing what he can be: a long and sharp-shooting, defensive-minded monster with a velvety touch around the rim. That type of player is already unique and hard to find. Tack on Ingram’s 6’9″ frame, and you have yourself a player to fear.
If he keeps using his body to his advantage and knocking down shots, we could be looking at a special talent in the coming years. Will he ever eclipse Durant? Probably not, but he has a base that could help make him an All-Star for years to come.
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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on November 8.
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