2017 NBA Draft: 5 Perfect Marriages Between Teams and Prospects In a Post-Draft World

by Frank Urbina in NBA Draft

Imagine a world without the NBA Draft.

There’d be no more tanking (much to the chagrin of Sam Hinkie), the idiotic lottery would be out the window and, best of all, young men would be able to choose where they get to take the next step in their careers. The benefits are bountiful to the overall league product, and to the players themselves.

To be fair, though, this isn’t really an original idea. Just look up “abolish the NBA Draft” on your preferred search engine and you’ll get pages of returns on the very topic. My personal favorite piece on the matter is from the great Tom Ziller of SB Nation, who had no problem going off on the injustice of the tradition. We recommend you read the piece in its entirety, but here’s a relevant excerpt:

We have had the draft since the league was formed, and other American sports leagues use an amateur draft. So the practice has become normalized as the standard way major leagues incorporate young players. But we ought to recognize the damage the draft does to the league, its teams, and the young players it seeks to settle. The draft rewards losing, incentivizes failure, and restricts the ability of players to work wherever they want. It often places good young players on poorly managed bad teams.

Reading Ziller’s work got us thinking…let’s say we did figure out a fair method for introducing prep stars into the professional ranks before this draft—what would that mean for the class of 2017? Where would some of the top prospects fit best if we weren’t tethered to archaic draft rules?

So, we decided to produce the five best team/prospect fits imaginable.

For good measure, we’re also throwing out cap implications (I know, we’re getting crazy here), as teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers could use infusion of young talents but don’t have the cap space necessary to offer top prospects the “rookie max deals” outlined by Ziller.

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets aren’t afraid of the Golden State Warriors. That’s not my opinion, but something general manager Daryl Morey has explicitly stated. From a June 13 piece via ESPN’s Zach Lowe, “They are not unbeatable. There have been bigger upsets in sports history. We are going to keep improving our roster…We have something up our sleeve”

All right then. They’re not lacking confidence despite bowing out in the second round of the playoffs.

Obviously, Morey is referring to making a splash through the trade market or free agency rather than the draft, since Houston doesn’t even own a first-round pick in 2017.

Regardless, let’s pretend we’re living in a post-draft paradise and surmise which prospect the Rockets could add to help make a run at Golden State. Since Houston prioritizes a mixture of efficiency while bombing away from three above all else, two names make the most sense for the Magnolia City franchise: Duke’s Luke Kennard and Kentucky’s Malik Monk.

Both young men were among the deadliest scorers in college basketball this past season—the former averaged 19.5 points per night on pristine 49.0/43.8/85.6 shooting splits, and the latter 19.8 points on 45.0/39.7/82.2 splits. Kennard’s numbers are a bit better, but Monk profiles more favorably as an NBA player thanks to his age—he’s 19, while the former Blue Devil is already 21—and superior athleticism.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that Kennard is unathletic per se (he’s reportedly tested out quite well in private team workouts), but rather that he just can’t do things like this in the open floor:

Nevertheless, the Rockets’ affinity for efficiency, represented best through their 111.8 offensive rating in 2017 (No. 2 among the league’s 30 teams), 54.5 effective field-goal percentage (No. 3) and 58.3 true shooting percentage (No. 2), may mean they’d place more value on the prospect who was more effective on a per-shot basis.

Here’s how the two scorers compare in four vital offensive areas:

Player TS% eFG% FTr 3PA/40
Luke Kennard 63.2 58.5 42.0 6.7
Malik Monk 59.6 53.9 40.7 8.6

Kennard bests Monk in the three most important metrics while still attempting 6.7 threes per 40 minutes. Thus, at the end of the day, Morey would take the former Dukie over the former Wildcat as a complement to his current core. 

The Rockets have made it clear they’re going to compete with the Warriors by attempting to outscore them. Whether that’s bold or just brash is up for discussion. Adding a high-volume, efficient scorer like Kennard off the bench would be a solid start.

Denver Nuggets

In 2016-17, the Denver Nuggets:

  1. Missed the playoffs by one game.
  2. Ranked first in offensive rating from Dec. 15 through the end of the regular season (111.3)
  3. Discovered Nikola Jokic is the NBA’s next superstar.

Are we being a bit factitious with No. 3? Maybe. But in the time frame after Jokic resumed his role as the Nuggets starting center (that came on Dec. 15, wink wink), he averaged 19.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 0.8 threes per game while shooting 58.7 percent from the floor, 82.5 percent from the stripe and 34.2 percent from beyond the arc. Moreover, per NBA Math, the Serbian big man placed second in offensive points added among players who participated in fewer than 2100 minutes on the season, behind only Chris Paul. Taking minutes out of the equation, he trailed just 13 players.

Unfortunately, there is one major flaw in the 7-footer’s game: He’s nearly impossible to build around defensively. His lack of athleticism and poor agility makes him the equivalent of a practice dummy when protecting the paint. Over the last four months of the season, while the Nuggets offense was scorching with Jokic in the middle, they were dead last in defensive rating at 111.9. Additionally, in that span, Denver allowed a league-worst 46.9 percent success rate on opponents’ attempts from the non-restricted portion of the paint.

However, all is not lost; the Nuggets can travel down a few different paths to remedy their defensive woes. For one, they can load up on ball-stoppers on the perimeter to reduce the amount of dribble penetration, and thus lessen pressure on Jokic to defend the rim. A guy like Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell, for example, who has been called the best defensive guard in the 2017 class, would make some sense.

But what if Denver was able to land a player who can both defend at a high level on the perimeter and protect the paint at the same time? (Well, not literally at the same time, as there sadly aren’t any Nightcrawlers available in this draft.) We’re looking at someone like Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac.

The former Seminole’s offensive game needs work; he’s not much of a shooter and has a tendency to blend into the background when his team is in possession of the ball. Defensively, though, he’s as good as they get.

This past season, Isaac averaged 1.5 blocks and 1.2 steals while playing just 26.2 minutes per contest. His quick feet, hands, ability to switch onto guards and overall instincts as a help defender would do absolute wonders for the Nuggets.  

Contemplate the following. In 2016-17, only three players in the NBA considered forwards by Basketball Reference had a block percentage over 4.5 while appearing in at least 50 games: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pascal Siakam and James Michael McAdoo. Per KenPom, Isaac’s was 6.8—the third-best mark in the mighty ACC.

Oh and by the way, he’s still only 19 years old.

Fake draft-less world be damned, we need to find a way to pair Isaac with the Nuggets in the real world.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder deserve credit for battling their way to a 47-win campaign the season after losing the best player in franchise history. Russell Westbrook did the unthinkable by averaging a triple-double for the year, pretty much carrying a decidedly mediocre roster to the playoffs.

Even so, it’s time to forget about the past and look to the future. To get the ball rolling toward contention again, what general manager Sam Presti and Co. need more than anything is a power forward who can space the floor.

Presti already committed his team to a huge contract extension for their man in the middle, Steven Adams, who operates solely in the paint. He also traded for Taj Gibson, who has range out to 15 feet, but not any further. Not to mention, the former Chicago Bull is an unrestricted free agent this summer, so he could easily land a huge offer and find himself in a different jersey for 2017-18.

Power forward deficiency aside, it must also be noted that, for the regular season, Oklahoma City shot 32.7 percent from three (the league’s worst mark) and scored 0.94 points per possession (PPP) on spot-up jumpers (sixth-worst overall). They need to acquire more three-point shooting this summer. 

So to help solve both problems in our draft-less universe, the Thunder would go hard after Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen. The Finnish big man is widely considered the best shooter in his entire class by multiple pundits, including Draft Express’ Mike Schmitz.

As a freshman in the Pac-12, Markkanen averaged 15.6 points while shooting 42.3 from three on 4.4 attempts per game. According to Synergy, he scored 1.3 PPP on contested catch-and-shoot attempts, as well. 

He’s got some wiggle in his game, a sturdy handle for a 7-footer and the ability to score in more ways than just standstill shooting. Furthermore, his weaknesses (poor defense and softness on the glass) can be masked by playing next to a defensive ace like Adams and a point guard who averages more than 10 rebounds per contest.

In turn, the space he would provide Westbrook and Victor Oladipo on offense would make their lives easier, too.

Portland Trail Blazers

After a mid-February trade with the Nuggets netted Portland Jusuf Nurkic, the makings of a potentially elite triad began to take shape.

From Feb. 15 to March 30, a 20-game stretch with Nurkic, C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard all healthy, Portland scored 110.6 points per 100 possession (good for the league’s No. 5 mark), allowed 105.4 per 100 possessions (No. 12), and had a net rating of 5.2—the No. 5 score over the stretch. How good was Nurkic? For a brief glimpse, just watch his highlights from a March 9 matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. In that contest, the Bosnian big man dropped 28 points, 20 rebounds, eight assists and six blocks. No, seriously:

The Blazers won 14 of their 20 games with the three studs healthy—a 57.4-win pace if stretched out over 82 games.

Regardless, things aren’t quite perfect in the Pacific Northwest just yet, as Terry Stotts’ team still badly lacks depth on the wing. The Evan Turner signing was a bust. Allen Crabbe can score a bit, but he fits best in his current sixth man role. Al-Farouq Aminu’s three-point shooting, after peaking in 2015-16 at 36.1 percent, plummeted back down to 33.0 percent this past season—a mark much closer to his career clip of 32.4 percent.

What’s more, the Blazers still need help defensively. Over the course of the regular season, the team finished No. 22 in defensive rating (107.9).

If we put that number under a microscope, we find that a good chunk of the blame can be placed on Portland’s isolation defense. In such situations, they allowed 0.89 PPP, which put them in the 44.8 percentile, a number nowhere near good enough for a team with top-four aspirations in the Western Conference. (I mean, with the way the Blazers have spent money recently, they more likely fancy themselves potential Warriors-killers and not just a top-four seed.)

Well, the perfect young man to fill those needs for Portland is Kansas’ Josh Jackson.

The 6’8” potential star is one of the best wing prospects in his class. He can play the 3 primarily but defend three, and eventually maybe even four, positions on the other end. Jackson is hyper-competitive and uber-athletic, with underrated court vision to boot. During his lone year in college, he averaged 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per contest. Most importantly, he’s the best wing defender in his class.

Someone with his fiery attitude would slot in beautifully next to McCollum, Nurkic and Lillard, turning their dreams of catching the top four teams in the West into a reality.

In addition, concerns about his scoring translating at the next level—legitimate concerns, as he possesses a meager 6’9” wingspan that could hurt his ability to finish inside against pros and also has a really funky release on his jumper—could be quelled in Portland, as he’d playing on one of the league’s better offensive teams.

San Antonio Spurs

I know what you may be thinking.

“Why would we want to help out the Spurs, even in a fantastical world without an NBA Draft? They’re good enough as is!”

To that I’d respond: You’re absolutely right. But hey, the Warriors look like they’re about to reel off at least a three-peat, so why not help another contender and see if we can slow down the dynasty in the making?

For our purposes in this post-draft world, we’re going to find San Antonio a replacement for Tony Parker. The legendary floor general appeared to be on his last legs last season, and that was before rupturing his patella tendon in the postseason. It’s time for head coach Gregg Popovich to get younger at the 1; considering he drafted Dejounte Murray last summer, he knows it too.

The goods news for the Spurs? We have some damn good options in this draft class.

There’s Washington’s Markelle Fultz, whose four offensive factors compare closely to James Harden’s from this past season. In all honesty, though, the future No. 1 pick would fit best in a low-pressure situation during his first year, where he can dominate the ball and take his lumps on both ends.

We also have Dennis Smith of N.C. State—a prospect whose advanced marks liken him to the next coming of a more athletic Jeff Teague. But, like Fultz, he was a member of a horrible team in college; he’d also be better off going to a team with low expectations.

Another solid option would be the explosive Lonzo Ball out of UCLA. But let’s be totally real. Even in this alternate reality, can you imagine Popovich’s Spurs drafting a player whose father has already been on First Take twice? I really can’t either.

Finally, there’s former Kentucky Wildcat De’Aaron Fox, who is among the five or six best prospects in the 2017 NBA draft according to just about every draft analyst. Making his fit with San Antonio interesting is the fact that his game resembles that of a young Parker: He’s absurdly quick, can get to the rim on just about anyone, but, like the Frenchman (when he was young, at least), he can’t really shoot worth a lick from the outside.

The concerns about his shooting are quite real, by the way. Fox shot 24.6 percent from three at Kentucky and 36.2 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop Math. And recent pre-draft workouts have not lessened the worries much at all:

Those issues as a shooter, and the fact Fox is most effective with the ball in his hands, are going to make us pass on him, too. Consider that Leonard had the ninth highest usage rate in the league last season, which coincided with a career-best performance and a top-three MVP finish. Do we really want anyone taking the ball out of his hands? Like, ever?

Nope.

So instead, we’re going with the most mysterious draft prospect of the cycle, Frank Ntilikina. Parker’s French counterpart, Ntilikina has long arms, a great frame and plus-athleticism, and he doesn’t need to tote the rock a ton to do his damage. He’s a crafty offensive player, but more so a stud on the defensive end.

Best of all? He’s still just 18 years old. Let him sit for a year behind Parker and Murray, biding his time and improving his handle and jumper before eventually unleashing him as the defensive velociraptor to Leonard’s T-Rex.

Ntilikina could help some next season, but he should really blossom by the time LaMarcus Aldridge’s contract runs out after 2018-19 and the Spurs will be able to spend on adding a big-time free agent. Leonard turns 26 on June 29, meaning Popovich and Co. have plenty of time to wait for their new floor general to develop.

We’re playing the long game here, which may be considered boring since we’re operating outside the confines of reality. Regardless, even in a fantasy, the Spurs wouldn’t make the rash decision; the slow burn has worked out just fine for them in the past.

 

Follow Frank on Twitter @frankurbina_.

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Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NBA Math, Basketball Reference or NBA.com.

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